Day off from the real job, so got an early start on things.................................
Yesterday: 2-3
YTD: 47-34
Thursday
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1) Tennessee State(+4.5)
Tennessee State is only 10-13 YTD , but a pretty good 8-3 S/U at home. They are 7-2 S/U in home conference games, and 3-0 ATS their last 3 overall. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 6 in this series.
Muarry State is 18-5 YTD, but has not been a money maker at just 8-13 ATS. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
2)Moorehead State (+17)
Samford is coming off a string of non-impressive performances, losing their last 2 outright as favourites, going 0-3 ATS in their last 3 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10. The last 4 times they have been DD favs, they are 0-4 against the number, losing once outright and winning the others by margins of 3, 7, and 1 point.
Moorehead State is 4-19 YTD, but might be playing their best ball of the season. They have gone 3-4 S/U in their last 7, 4 of which have been on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5.
The last 10 times they have been a DD dog, they are 9-1 ATS, with the lone loss being by 1 point to the line.
Of course, you would expect the stats to heavily favour Samford. Offensively they do, but the Eagles actually show an edge on the boards, and are basically even with the Bulldogs on D.
In the last 5 games for each team:
DFG%
M State......41.1%
Samford.......48.1%
This 17 point line reflects a 16-8 team hosting a 4-19 team, but a closer look shows it's simply far too many pts.
3)Idaho State(-5)
I rarely lay more than 2-3 points, but I think there is that much of a difference in these two sides.
Portland State has lost 5 straight and 9/10. They are 2-8 ATS in that span.
Idaho State has won 2/3 and 4/7 and are 4-2 ATS in that span.......one game was not lined.
OFG%
P St road.........42.9%
I St home........48.3%
O3FG%
P St road.........36.7%
I St home.........40.6%
F.Throws
P St road.........65.6%
I St home.....77.1%
DFG%
P St road.........47.2%
I St home ........45.6%
The last 5 games for each team:
DFG%
P St............50.4%
I St............41.7%
Idaho also shows advantages on the boards.
Like I said, I don't play many favourites, but this one looks like a blowout to me.
4)California (-2.5)
What? Two favourites on the same card?
Just think Cal is a much better team than Arizona.
Cal is 15-6 YTD, and a sparkling 10-1 S/U at home. They are 14-7 ATS in all games, 8-3 ATS at home, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Arizona is 15-9 YTD, but are 5-8 S/U in games not on their home court. They are 8-15 ATS in all games, 5-8 ATS away, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12.
Cal is 4-1 at home in conference games. Ariz is 1-4 in road conference games.
The filtered stats show................
....small Cal + in OFG%
......medium Cal + in DFG%
........big Cal + in O3FG% and Free throws
It's a low number to lay with a team that is 10-1 at home.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
Yesterday: 2-3
YTD: 47-34
Thursday
------------------------------------------------------------------
1) Tennessee State(+4.5)
Tennessee State is only 10-13 YTD , but a pretty good 8-3 S/U at home. They are 7-2 S/U in home conference games, and 3-0 ATS their last 3 overall. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 6 in this series.
Muarry State is 18-5 YTD, but has not been a money maker at just 8-13 ATS. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
2)Moorehead State (+17)
Samford is coming off a string of non-impressive performances, losing their last 2 outright as favourites, going 0-3 ATS in their last 3 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10. The last 4 times they have been DD favs, they are 0-4 against the number, losing once outright and winning the others by margins of 3, 7, and 1 point.
Moorehead State is 4-19 YTD, but might be playing their best ball of the season. They have gone 3-4 S/U in their last 7, 4 of which have been on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5.
The last 10 times they have been a DD dog, they are 9-1 ATS, with the lone loss being by 1 point to the line.
Of course, you would expect the stats to heavily favour Samford. Offensively they do, but the Eagles actually show an edge on the boards, and are basically even with the Bulldogs on D.
In the last 5 games for each team:
DFG%
M State......41.1%
Samford.......48.1%
This 17 point line reflects a 16-8 team hosting a 4-19 team, but a closer look shows it's simply far too many pts.
3)Idaho State(-5)
I rarely lay more than 2-3 points, but I think there is that much of a difference in these two sides.
Portland State has lost 5 straight and 9/10. They are 2-8 ATS in that span.
Idaho State has won 2/3 and 4/7 and are 4-2 ATS in that span.......one game was not lined.
OFG%
P St road.........42.9%
I St home........48.3%
O3FG%
P St road.........36.7%
I St home.........40.6%
F.Throws
P St road.........65.6%
I St home.....77.1%
DFG%
P St road.........47.2%
I St home ........45.6%
The last 5 games for each team:
DFG%
P St............50.4%
I St............41.7%
Idaho also shows advantages on the boards.
Like I said, I don't play many favourites, but this one looks like a blowout to me.
4)California (-2.5)
What? Two favourites on the same card?
Just think Cal is a much better team than Arizona.
Cal is 15-6 YTD, and a sparkling 10-1 S/U at home. They are 14-7 ATS in all games, 8-3 ATS at home, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Arizona is 15-9 YTD, but are 5-8 S/U in games not on their home court. They are 8-15 ATS in all games, 5-8 ATS away, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12.
Cal is 4-1 at home in conference games. Ariz is 1-4 in road conference games.
The filtered stats show................
....small Cal + in OFG%
......medium Cal + in DFG%
........big Cal + in O3FG% and Free throws
It's a low number to lay with a team that is 10-1 at home.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
