Thursday July 26th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday July 26th 2007

yesterday: 14-6 +7.36
July: 124-114 +20.92
ml 66-49 +15.44
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-31 -5.76
parlays 21-29 +3.93
system picks 1-1 yesterday; 33-18 in July (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-2-1 yesterday; 36-37 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 75% (-184)+10 RL 62 (+117)+15
mil 51 (-128)-6 Cin 49 (+120)+3
Phil 58 (-153)-3
Phil 54 (Eaton-Lannan)
Sf 59 (-124)+3
Hou 58 (-109)+5
cubs 60 (-110)+7
lad 57 (-122)+2
Ariz 54 (-136)-4
tb 54 (+126)+9
det 70 (-159)+8 RL 56 (+104)+6
bost 62 (-107)+10
nyy 56 (-159)-6 Kc 44 (+151)+4
oak 55 (-124)-1

system totals

pitt@Mets un8.5 67% (+100)+17 --ump Reliford a slight UNDER-ump (always high K%)
mil@Cin ov9.5 69 (-101)+18 --B.Welke is a under-ump; I've penalized it already?quite a bit?still stays due to the (presumed) high probability
atl@Sf un8.5 71 (-120)+16 --Runge is a decent UNDER-ump
sd@Hou ov9.5 65 (+109)+17 --ump N/A
fla@Ariz ov9.5 74 (-120)+19 --Guccione is an acceptable OVER-ump
oak@Seat un8 68 (+104)+18 --ump N/A


I don't think that I could have played yesterday's board any better. I was right to take it easy on the system picks, as I figured that the Braves would have a game on their hands, and I wasn't too sure about how effective Kenny Rogers would be; I think I commented that the Tigers team total over 5 runs was about as safe as they come. Went only 3-4 on the moneyline but did a 3-0 on the runline, a 3-1 on totals, 4-0 on my parlays and even 1-1 on my IF's to pick up some coin (counting IF's as parlays). I was even for the month just before this current winning streak; things can sure change in a hurry (either direction), especially the way I go nuts occasionally. I got away with a monster slate of 20 plays yesterday so I'm counting my blessings. The past 3 days has given me a full head of steam to close out the month. Let's do this thing?

Mets, Cubs, Tiges and Bosox are system picks for Thursday. I put the Mets on a parlay with Wednesday's Phillies and Yanks, so I've got some live action there already; still considering the runline, which might be a good way to kick off an IF play. Cubs, Tigers and Bosox I'm already on; Cubs line looked too good, so I didn't wait for Wednesday's results; my thoughts were that if the Cubs won and scored more than 4 runs then I would really like them Thursday, so I'll consider increasing my play as the lines haven't moved. Tigers I got early thinking that the line would move against me, which it has a little; still available at -160 to -164 which my system says to grab. Bosox production has been down the past 2 games at Jacob's, what with the two 1-0 games they've played, but I think that they have a good chance to dismantle Lee here as he has been brutal over his past three?a trip to the DL, maybe? Gabbard has looked brilliant and the Indians aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball in this series either. My 'cap actually had the Bosox a few percentage points higher, but I penalized them some for being blanked on Wednesday. With Big Papi back, now, I'm even more confiedent in this play; Bosox won't be shut down again?I can see 5 or 6 runs for them Thursday easily.

Giants, Astros and Dodgers also have my interest for Thursday, though each of these is less appealing than the system picks. Bonds is questionable, apparently, for the Giants but he hasn't been too productive lately anyway. That play is really a play on Lincecum as he's looking like the real deal; Carlyle has been good, lately, but he doesn't compare to Tim here. Giants bats are always a concern, making the under a definate possibility. Astros and Padres both hit lefties better than righties, so that one could go over if Wandy has a rare bad game at home (era under 2 at Minute Maid); I've NEVER really liked Boomer, even as a Jay, and Wandy's stellar work at home has got me thinking that the Astros are the right play; Astros stay put, too, while Padres travel in from Colorado after getting mashed in the closer there. Dodgers in a mild slump, the past few games, but Penny should be a cure for that. Lopez has done good work vs the Dodgers, including 2 solid (though short) outtings this season. Toss in the Dodgers travelling with the Rockies staying put and we might have a bad recipe for a Dodgers victory; I couldn't pass on the opening line, which surprisingly hasn't moved, so I'm rooting for LAD today.

Several totals interest me mildly. I'd love to get my totals total to even for July, but that's going to be difficult as I haven't really been attacking the totals like I have the sides. My 3-1 there yesterday didn't even collect me 2 units. D'Backs appear to be hitting again and that game at Chase looks like a solid over proposition. Mets are really starting to hit again, too, and they do their best work vs lefties, so I don't know if Maholm can keep this score down; Maholm has good career numbers vs the Mets, all from games last season (including 2 well-pitched games at Shea), but he's been mediocre for his past 5 starts now and I just think that the Mets O is in too much of a zone for that under. Mil-Cin is a highly rated over-call, but the ump (B.Welke) really hurts it; I'll have enough other action going so I'll pass there, but the Brewers do their best work (by far) against lefties and the Reds should be able to get to Bush again (he has a 6.67 era in 5 games vs the Reds). Atlanta-San Fran under looks worth a shot. I'll probably pass on that total in Houston as I'll be backing the Astros there. A's starting to hit, lately, so I don't know about that one at Safeco; Haren should keep things reasonable, and Weaver has really turned things around after his dreadful start, but I would think that the M's really want to kick off this homestand right after looking like garbage on their recent road trip; tough call, that game?side and total.

Will post plays and other ramblings as the night turns into day.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

gotta consider these...
been doing okay on them past while...

possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)


pitt un3.5 -110 (-19)
Mets ov5 +105 (+1)posting this one as I think it might have a shot
mil ov5 -105 (+10)
Reds ov4.5 -130 (+6)
braves un4 -130 (-10)
Giants un4.5 -135 (-6)
Astros ov4.5 -125 (+6)
Col un4.5 -105 (-7)
fla ov4.5 -120 (+9)
Ariz ov5 -105 (+7)
tb ov5 +120 (+7)
det ov5.5 +100 (+15)looks good
Chisox un4 -110 (-7)
bosox ov5 -145 (+15)these guys are due to explode
nyy ov6.5 +105 (+8)not for me, thanks
Kc ov5 -115 (+5)pass
a's un4 -105 (-6)
M's un4 -120 (-11)


Braves under 4 might be worth a shot. Price is similar for the moneyline. Giants pen has been good this series.

Rockies under 4.5, Tigers over 5.5 and Bosox over 5 look possible, but I think that moneylines or runlines might be the better plays today.

Totals are likely quiet for me Thursday.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've got some mad-money available in an account that uses (ugh!) 20-cent baseball lines, so I'm using their lines for the following assessment.

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Mets,cubs,tigers,bosox)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
3 visitors in series closers...hope that works out...
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mets 75% (-200)+8

briefly:
--Mets with a large edge at SP
--Mets a clear edge in the BP
--Mets a large edge with the sticks
--Perez's bad work vs Pirates--if you've seen the numbers (0-1, era of 9.00 in 2)--was back in 2003 when he was a Padre...not long before he became a Pirate himself
--Perez was great in his last start
--Mets having little trouble this series

-200 is 50 cents on the dollar
75 x 0.5 = 37.5
25 x -1....= -25
-------------------------
..................12.5%


That's not bad for such a hefty line.
I should get better results with the others.

I should get better results with the runline:

Mets -1.5 62% (+100)+12

62 x 1 = 62
38 x -1 = -38
-----------------------
..............24%

An increase of 11.5 points with the runline or
11.5/12.5%=
92% higher ROI with the runline, with
13/25%=
a 52% increase in risk.

Either choice looks solid. Perez has done fine work during day games while Maholm is 1-5 during day games with a higher era and higher baa than for his night games...his numbers were inflated during day games last year, too.
Every angle I check at for this one points to the Mets.
The only thing against it is Maholm's good work vs the Mets last season.
Can't be perfect.
Solid.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

cubs 60% (-110)+7

briefly:
--Marquis is 3-0, 2.08 era vs Cards in his career, which includes 7 shutout innings against them this season
--Looper not in top form, recently
--Cubs with a small edge at the plate for this one
--Cubs totally healthy now and persuing the Brewers

-110 is 90.9 cents otd
60 x 0.909 = 54.54
40 x -1......= -40
--------------------------------
....................14.54%


An increase over the Mets moneyline, but not enough for the drop-off in probability.

Mets look best, so far.
Though the Cubs didn't look like they have "a small edge" at the plate yesterday...looked a tad larger than that.
Worthwhile.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

tigers 70% (-160)+8

briefly:
--Tigers a large edge at SP
--Tigers a large edge at the plate
--Tigers having little trouble scoring at US Cellular
--Verlander is only 1-4, 6.96 era in 6 vs the Chisox, but threw a decent 7 innings against them in their meeting this season (allowed 3 er, ND)
--Danks has been pounded by the Tigers in both meetings with them this season, once on the road and once at home

-160 is 62.5 cents otd
70 x 0.625 = 43.75
30 x -1......= -30
---------------------------------
....................13.75%


Only 1 extra percent on the ROI for giving up 5 percent on the probability.
Mets still look best.
This one is a mismatch also but Chisox have been coming alive at the plate recently. Their pitching still reeks, including their bullpen, so the Tigers have the edge there.
I'm not sure about bullpen availability for this one, as they've both been using their arms quite a bit in this lengthy series, including that doubleheader.
Verlander is more likely to go 7 or 8 innings than is Danks, who has only made it though 7 innings in 1 of his 18 starts this season.
This one is too good to pass on.
Tigers make lunchmeat outta lefties and have done so to Danks on 2 of 2 occasions this season.
Very likely.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

bosox 62% (-110)+9

briefly:
--Large edge to Bosox SP here as Lee has been just dreadful while Gabbard has been brilliant
--Bosox edge in the pen
--Sticks are comparable as Bosox OPS vs L .804 while Indians vs L is .808, but last 7 days sees the Bosox OPS at .802 (despite missing Ortiz for much of it) while Indians last 7 is .677...I'm giving a small edge to the Bosox at the plate for this matchup

-110 is 90.9 cents otd
62 x 0.909 = 56.358
38 x -1.......= -38
---------------------------------
....................18.358%


That's the highest. Notice that I've got the same probability as the Mets runline but with a LOWER ROI for the Bosox.

Bosox ML is 18.358-12.5=5.858 points higher than the Mets ML or
5.858/12.5%=
46% higher ROI with the Bosox with
13/25%=
a 52% reduction in probability.


Mets still look tops.
Tigers and Bosox fairly even for seconds.
Cubs look worthwhile but rank last of the four, by these evaluations.

All 4 plays look smart, to me.
Would love to go 3-1 on system picks for Thursday.
That would be special.

Adding one more comparison...
Tigers vs Bosox

tigers 70% 13.75%
bosox 62% 18.358%

bosox with the higher ROI...
4.608/13.75%=
33% greater than the tigers, but with
8/30%=
a 27% increase in risk.

Fairly even trade-off.
These numbers sort of suggest that the Bosox are the slightly better play--so second best of the system picks--but I'm a real sucker for my higher probabilities...I do NOT like to lose...so I play the big lines when I think that they have value.
Tigers line is big but even at -160 we're looking at a break-even mark of 62%, so if you think that the Tigers have a better than 62% chance of winning today then you've got (perceived) value on the play.

One final percent to consider:
Tigers are 13-4 on the road to lefties, or a .765 winning rate...guess that covers the 62%...not to mention that Danks has been clubbed around by these boys before...not to mention we've got a rock-solid Verlander going.

I am a broken record.


The waiting is hard, fvckin' takes so long.
Draped in sun, hands in sand.
Earth acid cleanses me, it cleanses me clean
but the world it never comes.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Considering the over at Camden. Jackson, Trachsel, and both bullpens warrant such consideration.

System call is only 55% over the 10.
So low as neither offense is really clicking this year--the D'Rays certainly not against righties and not in this series in general, and the O's have gone kinda quiet lately, too (OPS under .700 last 7 days).

Ump Hoye is a bit of an over-ump, which helps.

Jackson's era is a whole point lower during day than night games (still 6.06).
Jackson's career era during day games is 5.86, and his baa, career, is higher during day than night games (day .297).
Hard to say what to make of Jackson's 6 shutout innings against the Yanks last time out; the day prior saw the Yanks get shut down by another mediocre righty (Litsch). I saw Jackson throw a great game against the Jays several months back, and he's also had a great game at Jacob's Field back at the end of June.
Possibility of a decent Jackson start seems likelier than a decent Trachsel start, and the D'Rays OPS the past 7 days is exactly 201 points higher than the O's over the past 7 (.828 to .627), so the D'Rays look like a probable winner.
O's maybe get 4-6 off of Jackson and the crappy pen.

Trachsel has slightly better numbers during day games in '07, but that wasn't the case last year. He has a whopper WHIP of 1.55 as he's walked 48 batters (while striking out only 34). He had 3 straight stinkers--a month ago before going on the DL--and he's had 1 stinker (in 1) since coming off the DL...getting manhandled by the A's, and that was while the A's were in a terrible slump scoiring runs. Not to mention that he's 0-3 (in 3) with a 6.48 era against the D'Rays, including getting pummelled at Tropicana Field back in April. D'Rays are due (as I believe the Bosox are) to put up some runs on the board--their OPS on the road is about 50 points higher than it is at home, and Camden is susceptible to giving up runs.
Trachsel may not survive long, and the Orioles bullpen is almost as bad as the D'Rays pen.
D'Rays bagging 5-7 in this contest seems likely. Makes the team total (over 5) at +120 look good.

I'll try the D'Rays
Maybe the over.

 

[Dr. Whitetail]

Love your plays today. GL!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks Doc, hope some luck comes your way too.

I've been real lucky the past couple of days, I think, so I'm gonna ride it out while it lasts.

Still finalizing plays.

Might not post until just before the Mets game starts as I may do some final tinkering.

Here's what I've got so far:

System picks
-------------------
Mets
cubs
tigers
bosox

other picks
------------------
Giants
Astros
dodgers
d'rays


No totals yet...I'm likely trying the D'Backs game over and the Giants game under, but I haven't done so yet. Appropriate umps for both of them, and they're both system calls, so I should at least hit one of them...of course, that won't net me any coin with the juicy-fruit I'll be laying.

I'm pretty sure that I've discussed all of the choices listed above.

Hope Ray (and me) are right about this Tigers game, as I upped my bet 33% after seeing his post (from 3 to 4 units). I might have pumped it anyway, I dunno...looks like the best bet going in the AL today.

I love the Mets today but don't know what to do about the runline. My call is over 60% for the runline, and it's sitting pretty at +100 or better.

60% at +100 is a +10 value indicator and an ROI of 20%...that one is easy to remember (+60 units -40 units = 20 unit return).

I still got gold in the vaults but I've got to be careful over the next 2 hours before gametime...don't want to go overboard today as I'm due for a downer sometime soon...'course, now that I'm up 20 units for July maybe makes it a good time to push my luck...

...a little...

I gotta keep these posts shorter, don't ya think?
:shrug:


He's in way too deep.
Can't touch the bottom.
Can't touch the bottom.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Note to any who care:

I've added a 'cap for the Phillies game with Eaton going vs the lefty Lannan.

Eaton is the worst that the Phillies have to offer, and Lannan sounds like he may be able to pitch in the bigs (see IE's post on Lannan).

Tough to 'cap such a game, but I simply gave Lannan a starting rating of above average...same as I've given other top prospects--close to what I gave the Rockies Jimenez for his 1st start (which wasn't too bad), but a little less than I gave to Gallardo and Lincecum for their beginnings.

Line just opened...+158 for the Nats.

Nats 46% (+158)+7

46 x 1.58 = 72.68
54 x -1.....= -54
-----------------------------
...................18.68%


Not high enough for me, really, to play a 46% probability.

Line reaches +170 and I might try them.

I've got better fish to fry today, anyway.

For what it's worth, I've got a system call of UNDER the 10.5 at 67%.
Looks more promising than the Nationals.

Who the ump?...one sec...

Wendelstedt...he' pretty even...doesn't really hurt or help.

Under maybe.
Gonna wait and see if I have any spare change from the Mets and Tigers early action...nevermind that...Phillies game starts at 1 pm.

Gives me a bit of time to decide.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Biding my time...

nats game under has gone from -105 to +106, so no rush here as people seem to think that Lannan will be pounded (Nats really don't score much, so even off of Eaton they could struggle).

Nats team total at 5. Wouldn't touch it.

Can get Philly under 5.5, but it's at -140 so that seems useless...a bet for Lannan to have a decent game is THE definition of a gamble, especially against the hot Phillies (OPS close to .800 for the year, over .800 at home, and closer to .900 the past 7 days) on their turf.

Now at +110.

If it reaches +120 I play it for sure.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Be happy to be happy with what you're happy to be happy with.

Be happy to be happy with what you're happy to be happy with.

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -184 5.52/3
cubs -110 2.2/2
tigers -159 6.36/4
bosox -107 3.21/3

other picks

nationals +167 0.59/1
Giants -124 1.24/1
Astros -108 1.62/1.5
dodgers -122 1.83/1.5
d'rays +126 0.79/1

totals

wash@Phil un11 -104 1.04/1

2-teamer (I need to hit both to make money anyway)
--atl@Sf un8.5
--fla@Ariz ov9.5
+233
0.6/1.4


Not much else to add to what I've already said.
Go Mets! Go Tigers!

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

sigh...5 unearned runs off of Perez in the 6th inning totally blew what was a very nice game being tossed by Oliver.

I had a feeling by the 4th or 5th--the way the Mets weren't producing--that something goofy was going to happen to spoil my opener.

Them's the breaks. I've been on the right side of many a goofy occurance over the past few days so it makes sense that one should now go against me.

Makes a REAL BIG

:00hour TIGERS:00hour fan.

Let's at least bring this one home, aye?

Will still leave me a chance for that 3-1 I wanted on system sides, but it'll take some real luck to bag both of my nighttime visitors (Cubs and Bosox).

The worst part of all this is that I've 'capped Friday's games and the board looks atrocious; the Cubs will be a system pick if they win tonight, but none others will be in the offing. Phillies, Brewers, Rockies and M's might see some of my money Friday. A fade against Peavy in Houston might be worthwhile too the way he's currently going (Williams has stellar career numbers vs the Padres and he's coming off a great outting), and maybe a play against Zito in San Fran, as he seems to be getting hit by teams that can handle lefties, which the Marlins certainly can--Marlins OPS the past 7 days is over .900 altogether.

I'll have 'em up earlier than usual...lots of day closers and no real late ones tonight. I'm ready to roll anytime. actually, but I've already mentioned, here, how grim it looks.

Looks like several over possibilities (in Philly, St.Louis, Colorado and Tampa) with maybe an under in Baltimore (Pettitte-Guthrie).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

unfreakin' real...errors cost me both of the early system picks...both calls over 70%.

:flush:

You might want to fade my night action; looks like I'm going to be a big loser today.

:s1:

I drop 10-15, which is likely, and I take Friday off.

I'll still post the numbers, but it's one butt-ugly board anyway so I'll focus on the weekend.

Fvckin' BS.
:com:

Hope you're doing better...can't be difficult.

:s2: