Spurs vs. Heat
Spurs vs. Heat
Heat vs. Spurs
Heat: 4 days rest, second game at home, current streaks - won 4, ATS: L2, previous game: won by 2 against Cleveland (lost ATS). Next game: Saturday vs. Nets.
Spurs: 0 days rest, fifth game on the road, current streaks - won 5, ATS: W2, previous game: won by 21 against Orlando (covered). Next game: Saturday vs. Memphis.
Spurs are 6-4 (+0.7) last ten vs. Miami. They are 4-6 ATS and 2-8 OU (average total 189.8). They have only been a dog in three of these matchups, and as the dog they are 1-2 SU and ATS.
Other recent numbers:
Spurs are 12-1 SU on no rest following a win (+10.8 ppg). They are 9-1 SU on the road (+8.6 ppg) with no rest, and 7-3 OU. However, as a dog they are 1-7 on the road with no rest (SU and ATS) and 7-1 OU.
Spurs are 5-1 SU with no rest after playing the Magic.
Spurs are 36-15 SU since 1999 (+7.3 ppg) when playing their fourth game in five days. In their last 8, they are 8-0 SU and ATS, and 6-2 OU when playing their fourth game in fives days since February 2012.
Reffing Crew: T. Brothers, E. Dalen, M. Smith (favors Miami).
Notable injuries: Battier (one of best defenders) out for Heat
In a sample of the last 2500+ games played, home favorites versus unrested opponents are 1868-729 SU (71.9%), but only cover these games 49.3% of the time. These numbers are actually right in line with league averages since 1995, showing only the smallest advantage for home favorites against non-rested opponents.
Both of these teams have been playing in the top 13 in the league for pace all year. They are both in the top 5 for offensive efficiency. San Antonio is in the top 5 for defensive efficiency, and Miami is in the bottom 5. However, San Antonio has been playing some rather weak offensive teams. I think this will be a great battle, but ultimately the road and rest factor will play some role and Miami will win. Would not be surprised if that didn?t happen.
Marquee matchup, teams always bring their best.
Prediction: Heat 113-110
