Thursday NCAA Hoops: Iona @ Rider

[superbook]

YTD: 9-3

PICK: Rider -8.5

Line should be Rider -6. Using BB strategy, Rider is the play.

What is behind BB strategy? If the big offshore books that set the lines know something why don't they just bet on Rider themselves instead of sharing their info with everyone else? I think the answer is that the big books got big by not betting but just booking. By adjusting the LVSC line "the wrong way" they are trying to limit their exposure to their opening lines by the wise guy middlers. In this case, they don't want any opening action on Rider. I congratulate BB on his great success and see no reason why he can't continue his run. IMO the offshore books are employing this strategy in all sports but the line moves are most dramatic in certain sports like college hoops.

Plus, Rider has had this game circled for a while: this game is their MAAC opener and they need to go into Saturday's game at Siena at 1-0 as Haddix and co. are playing real well right now. They can't start off Jan at 0-2 in league play...

Iona's Jason Thompson at 6-10, 245 should have his way with Iona inside. Iona lost a lot of talent vs last year and is 0-5 and losing by an average of 16 ppg.

Rider is coming off a one point loss at home to Monmouth and the crowd at the Broncs Zoo will be hungry for a win against a league foe that beat them in both games last year.


good luck.

- Jon

 

[Keith 1]

good luck superbook. I usually like to read your reasoning/write-up, but if you say Rider, then Rider it is.

 

[superbook]

Keith -- see edited post above. I wanted to post the line at -8.5 before it moves to -9.

 

[RAYMOND]

Iona is 2-10 in their last 12 straight up and Rider is 5-5 in their last 10 straight up. The home team in this series has dominated in the previous 12 meetings winning 11 games. The Broncos are at home tonight and play the role of the big favourite. The Broncos are 7-1 in their last 8 ATS and 6-4 ATS in their last 10. Iona only has 1 previous trend without a 0 as the first number in the record, 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Otherwise they are 0-5 in, last 5 overall, last 5 road games, last 5 coming off a loss, last 5 as a underdog, and last 5 ATS.


like it alot

 

[Keith 1]

Keith -- see edited post above. I wanted to post the line at -8.5 before it moves to -9.

got it. Thanks for the insight.

Just checked it with my on-line. it is already 9 with them. I assume you still like it, even at 9.

 

[Ohwell42]

Thanks superbook. Followed you on the Rider pick. Awesome job.

 

[Keith 1]

nice call Jon. You are doing great. Much appreciated.