thursday ncaa hoops >>>

[loophole]

2-1 yesterday as la tech flops, ga tech eases away in the second half, and portland state covers a disinterested stanford. record now 34-27-1. as i noted earlier, usually not concerned when the line moves in my favor as yesterday with la tech. but, as game time approached, i noticed that everyone was touting la tech but the line was still moving my wsy. on such occsasions i have found it apprpriate to blow a kiss in the direction of the money from which you are about to be separated. cela va sans dire.

early looks have produced nothing that really made me feel warm and fuzzy, though i am morbidly attracted to west coast home dogs san diego, oregon state and washington. kevin feel free to drop a line here about your take on san diego. i'm going to mull them over today and will return early this evening.

[This message has been edited by loophole (edited 12-20-2001).]

 

[buddy]

loophole,

I coat tailed yesterday and had West Virginia-14 over Duquesne on a small parlay.

Seemed like a total mismatch, but to my surprise, Duquesne won outright.

Went back and checked the database.

Duquesne had lost BUT COVERED their previous two games.

In addition, the line opened at 16 and closed at 14.

Might be worth keeping an eye on teams that have lost but covered their previous two games.

Tonight, I think Miami, O fits in this category.

fwiw

 

[loophole]

buddy, can't really get a feel for miami o this year and i find games in the islands to be difficult to handicap. kinda like both dogs in the rainbow classic but you never can tell which teams came to play and which teams came to party.

 

[buddy]

I am primarily an ATS handicapper.

Don't follow one team any more than any other.

I usually shy away from games played on neutral courts, and I agree about the long trip to the Islands.

But I've always felt (and still do) that a team w/ 2 consecutive loss/COVERS should be a consideration.

Tell you the truth, I use covers.com for my ATS info and din't realize this game was being played in Hawaii.

But, I'm still gonna' play Mia, O in a small parlay.

2 other leans I have are ORE- and Wash+.

 

[superbook]

Loophole --

My West Coast friends who have given us a lot of winners here lately (and no losers yet) like Utah State -15.5 tonight over Cal State Northridge. They see a win by 30 or so.

You might want to look into this game.

- Jon

 

[buddy]

Superbook,

I've been paying attention to your plays and I have to give you credit. I like your approach and you seem to be pretty solid.

Just curious, how long have you been handicapping?

 

[superbook]

Buddy --

Thanks. I'm a rookie at this, this is only my second college hoops season.

In my "first career" I was an analyst at a big Wall Street firm here in NYC where I learned the art of compiling a lot of information quickly (much with different opinions) to form an investment decision. IMO this the same basic skill you need in capping.

One thing I learned as an analyst is that you can't know everything and that you need to rely on technical experts in specific fields. IMO the key is to figure out which "expert" to believe.

IMO the same is true with capping, I'll never be able to cap a West Coast game as well as someone who lives out there and can get all of the local dirt and watch all the games.

My local specialty is the Ivy League, IMO a group of teams overlooked by Vegas but fairly easy to cap. I also live near Columbia University so I can see many of these teams play, which is an obvious advantage since they receive very little television exposure and minimal press coverage.

I got the handle "Superbook" because I used to handle all of the advertising and marketing for Victor Chandler's US business as a sidelight to my day job.

Thats my story, gl.

 

[djv]

If I may thanks for your info. I agree if someone is close to one conference it can help. And for sure put those in here. I have a hunch they will help all of us. When it comes to the Ivy I stay away. But now I may have a chance to play some. Thks

 

[buddy]

When djv was a little boy, he caught poison ivy and hasn't touched anything Ivy since.

Good reason as any to stay away from a conference.

rof

 

[redsfann]

Superbook--

Columbia has a nice campus, IMO. Do you live anywhere near the Cloysters?-- not sure if this is how its spelled...
Good luck in your basketball handicapping...

 

[djv]

I caught Ivy alright. That was some rash.

 

[superbook]

djv -- This year we'll catch some Ivy green ($$$) once the conference games start in January. It's the only action on Friday nights.

redsfann -- The Cloisters is near Baker Field (West 218th Street & Broadway) where Columbia plays football.

I live on West 96th Street near Central Park; the Lions play basketball at Levien Gym on the main campus (enter thru the gates on West 116th and Broadway). 20 blocks = mile

 

[redsfann]

That clears it up a bit.....

Been a long time since I've been to that area of NYC. Lived in Hoboken in '88-'89 while working for a company that was in the Woolworth Building in lower Manhattan. Last visit to the city was in 1999.

 

[superbook]

Did you know that when it was built the Woolworth building was the tallest building in NYC?

I was a meeting on the 21st floor last week, it now has a great view of the hole that was the WTC.

Happy holidays and gl tonite.

- Jon

 

[loophole]

ok, ready to toss these up for the evening:


tennessee+4-: this one's for you volfan. really think the vols have one of the strongest frontcourts around with slay, haislip and yarborough. they're just getting up to speed as slay (stress fracture) and haislip (academics) were out the first several games so vols probably underrated by most power rankings. cardinals will be without luke whitehead who now is listed as being out until january, so louisville probably overrated by same. besides inside edge, vols the better shooting team from the field, behind the arc and the the ft line. also, i'll give you a 100% guarantee that former dean smith players/disciples jeff lebo and buzz peterson have been on the phone this week discussing tenn tech's relative success in containing the cardinals on monday. fwiw, tenn beat tenn tech @ home by nine without slay and haislip to open the season.

san diego +4: san diego nice little team with nice small homecourt. and andre laws is the real deal - 23 ppg and makes his own shots. never thought much of the univ of spoiled children since bibby took over. he's such a ***** that his teams never seem to have much unity or chemistry. recently he's been railing in the la press about his team's lack of leadership, much to the chagrin of clancy and the other seniors.


oregon state +7: no i haven't taken leave of my senses, i actually like the beavers here. arizona schools have never liked their road trips throught the northwest. while wildcats blew out state by 27 last year, remember that beavers were decimated by injuries last season, at one time down to seven or eight players as i recall. they had to recruit on campus to get enough bodies to practice. in the three years prior, all games in corvalis were decided by one point, with ore state winning two. in all those years az was the bomb too. close game here i think - spread may make the difference.

 

[loophole]

got a little break on the lines when i put theplays in:

tenn +5
san diego +4-
oregon state +8

will grade the plays accordingly.


also adding:

cal poly -4: usually stay off conf road favs but there's a 10 point difference between this number and my line that i can't otherwise account for.