thursday ncaa hoops >>>

[loophole]

monday's losing day hopefully an aberration instead of a regression as plays cover six of seven in the ensuing two days. looking to continue with two day plays:


miami pk: ever see anything uglier in tournament play that the hoyas' win yesterday? congrats in order for gt due to setting new big east record with 27 turnovers, 19 off of steals. no way hoyas win that game without huge advantage in ft attempts, even though they could only make 19 of 39. now the get to play back-to-back against the rested hurricanes, the superior team imo, with a pick'em line. that intersects my definition of a betting opportunity,


northwestern -3-: wolverines a bad team and worse away from ann arbor. mich 1-11 s/u, 2-9-1 ats away. also losers of last six, eight of last ten and both games vs nw this year. meaningful stat to me is disappearance of mich defense of late, last five games allowing 78 ppg, 51% fg, 56% 3 pt (huh?) and -7.8 rebounding margin.



back later - gl and be careful out there.

 

[loophole]

running late so let me get these plays posted and i'll be back later to say why:

richmond +1
notre dame -1-
portland st +6
long beach st +6
la tech -1
unlv over 147

 

[loophole]

okay, real quick (actual lines below):


notre dame -1-: irish steady offense put up around 80 most of the year; johnnies around ten less, 20 less on the road - don't think they can keep up in back-to-back games. nd the better shooting team all around and the better rebounding team rest -should only exaggerate the difference.


richmond +1-: spiders wore these guys out a week ago on their home court, mainly because the bonny defense has faded. last five, st b has allowed 80 ppg, 51% fg, 37% 3 pt, even though three of those games were home games and opponents included rhode isl, fordham and duq. - not exactly hot shots. don't think bonnies can improve on that going back to back (can you tell i put a lot on the value of the bye?)


port st +6-: lost my notes so don't have the numbers but port st one of the big sky's hottest teams, winning last four and shooting lights out. weber state clear ad on the boards but when port st beat them few days ago they were outrebounded by 18. i would expect portland to only improve on that showing.


la tech -2: la tech playing solid ball. ely the best player on the court, but when fresno lost sandy and jefferies they were done.


long beach state +6: irvine still a little overlined, long beah state on a mission - ain't it cool?


unlv 0ver 148-: both teams have been fairly steady shooting and allowing over 45%, and shooting and allowing over 35% from 3 pt. know d picks up a little in postseason but don't see too much likely of big swing. two previous mtgs went 173 and 165.

 

[loophole]

midnight addition:


ucla -1: expect bruins with superior talent to step up for tourney.


gl

 

[ddubs]

GL, loop. I like UCLA, as well. There should be plenty of fan support at the Staples Center. Hopefully it will provide the same home field advantage as it did to the Trojans.