Thursday NCAA

InsiderEdge

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Aug 20, 2002
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Massachusetts
Mississippi St. +2.5

The Bulldogs come in 1-1 with a loss at Oregon and a win last week vs. Jacksonville St. In their opener, QB Kevin Fant was suspended for the game and Oregon took advantage and put the game away early. The Ducks played from a short field most of the day, mainly due to turnovers. Oregon?s scoring drives were 80, 38, 61, 37, 47, 2 and 36 yards and three of those ended up being field goals. Mississippi St. was also only 3-13 on third down. With Fant in the lineup, the offense runs much better as witnessed by late last year when he took over the starting job. He jumpstarted a lifeless offense in the final two games of the season vs. Mississippi and BYU by going 34-49 for 609 yards with 4 Td?s and 1 INT. They got the win vs. archrival Mississippi and came within 3 points of then undefeated BYU. Against Jacksonville St. on Saturday, Fant made his 2002 debut and went 15-26 for 336 yards and 3 TD?s. His QB rating in these 3 games is 201.93. It was a good tune up for him and the offense as a confidence boost before SEC action began. The defense, which has perennially been a stronghold for the Bulldogs, fell off last year ranking 64th in points allowed and 58th in total yards, mostly due to youth and inexperience. The defense, which is led by coordinator Joe Lee Dunn, usually runs a 5-1-5 scheme but will mix it up and will try to keep the offense off-balance. Their main threat is RB Carnell Williams, who is averaging 110 yards per game this year. USC did a good job two weeks ago making adjustments and holding Williams to ?2 yards in the second half. The Trojans put more players up near the line of scrimmage and forced the Tigers to beat the Trojans with the passing game; something Auburn was unable to do. Look for the Bulldogs to do something similar and try to make Cobb beat them. Cobb can expect tons of pressure as Dunn will mix it up and try to keep the QB off-balance. The defense often takes chances, opening up the possibility of the big play on both sides of the ball and Cobb has yet to prove he can execute in these situations. Starkville is always a tough place for visitors; the Bulldogs are 25-7 at Scott Field over the past 5 plus years, with four of those losses coming last year. Mississippi St. is also 7-2 in Thursday night games on ESPN (not that it really has much bearing on this year, but interesting nonetheless).
 

hildog

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Jan 5, 2002
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Muscle Shoals, AL
When Joe Lee Dunn has the talent to execute his impressive defensive play calling during a normal year (talent wise), the Bulldogs defensive can stimy the most potent offenses. Just look at the Florida game there a few years ago. However, this is not a normal year for the dogs' defense, as they severly undermanned talent wise. Jack State was able to run all over State's defensive front. The reason Cadillac was stopped in the second half of the USC game was due to the Trojans putting nine guys in the box and stunting to get penetration. Also, Carnell had cramps in the first half and was not at full speed in the second half. Auburn tried to counter by using some play action passes, however, these were in large part unsuccessful because of an inordinate number of dropped passes. In Auburn's last two games, the passing offense has improved drastically as its talented freshman wide-outs have been making plays and holding on to the football. Auburn's defense has been even more impressive, holding its last two opponents to just two field goals. Their linebacking crew, highlighted by Carlos Dansby and Dontarius Thomas, is one of the best in the SEC. Yes, Fant will probably make a few plays in the passing game. However, State's leading rusher showed up this fall over-weight and out of shape. Their running game will be ineffective, thus making the Bulldogs rely on the pass to get them yards. When you can make an offense one-dimensional, that's when you really have their number. Auburn will win tonight by at least two touchdowns, and show that they are a team to be reckoned with in the SEC west.

Prediction:
Auburn 34
State 17

:cool:
 
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