YTD: 1-1
West Virginia at Maryland.
Terps +17.....-115......bought the hook just as a little insurance in case the margin falls on 17, which i feel is a pretty common margin of victory even if there's no stats to back that up.
Anyway, here is my take on the game. These teams are border rivals, they dont like each other. The Terps still feel the sting of last year's debacle in Morgantown, where they shot themselves in the foot time and time again on offense, and, frankly, could not tackle even me on defense. It all lead to a 28-0 deficit by the time the first quarter ended.
The Terps want to make amends for that game. Defensively, they got better as the season wore on in 2006 and their practices this summer and leading up this game have centered on the basic fundamentals of tackling and pursuing the WVA spread. Will it work? Probably not enough to score the upset, but certainly enough to keep this game close and with the brust of emotion from a sold out home crowd, they should stay within this rather large number.
This is the last time the teams will play each other for a couple of years. While both teams will want to send a message that lingers with their rival for a while, i have a sneaky feeling this intangible element of the game will favor the home underdog.
From a techincal standpoint, WVA has some good numbers as a road favorite, while Maryland, which was a killer at home during Friedgen's first three years, have been money burners at home going on three years now. So, that does not bode well for this pick. But, hey, you can always find technical numbers to support your play, and for this i give you WVA's 2-10 ATS mark vs the ACC and the fact that despite the two-game winning streak WVA has over Maryland, it is the Terps who have covered 5 of the 7 matchups. Plus, the underdog has done well in recent games between these two teams at Maryland.
But, here's what caught my eye about the line. Back in the summer when some of the Books released games of the year lines, this contest was one of them. West Virginia was favored by 10. Now its 16.5 (17 with the hook!). What gives? WVA has looked explosive beyond belief in the early going, so maybe that is at play. When the experts first looked at this game, the # was smaller, but now in an attempt to even out the sides, the number ballooned by nearly a touchdown when it officially opened this week. I'm sure they're trying to entice Maryland backers, and they roped me in as i feel the Terps can put points on the board tonight.
The Terps have only lost by more than 17 at home only once since the start of the 2003 season. And, while we're focusing on if Maryland can stop the 'Neers, how about the other way around? West Virginia has allowed 24 or more points in eight straight games. With a deep, talented WR corps, i feel Friedgen has some magic in his bag tonight. I think the Terps move the ball on the Neers, and i feel like the can control the clock to keep Slaton and White off the field, enough, at least, to keep this game close. Plus, getting back to when WVA has the ball, i really do like the two tackles and linebacker Henderson for Maryland. They've been fuming for a year about last year's result and if WVA has a weakness on Offense it might be overall Offensive Line play. A fired up, playing at home defense can take advantage of that. I like the faster athletes Friedgen has brought in the last couple of years and we'll get a sneak peak at them tonight.
In the end, Slaton and White may prove to be too much, and the terps probably will fall short of the upset bid. I expect lots of points (although the O/U is just too high for me to take a bite) and a Mountaineer win, but Terrapin cover, 38-27.
Good luck everyone!
West Virginia at Maryland.
Terps +17.....-115......bought the hook just as a little insurance in case the margin falls on 17, which i feel is a pretty common margin of victory even if there's no stats to back that up.
Anyway, here is my take on the game. These teams are border rivals, they dont like each other. The Terps still feel the sting of last year's debacle in Morgantown, where they shot themselves in the foot time and time again on offense, and, frankly, could not tackle even me on defense. It all lead to a 28-0 deficit by the time the first quarter ended.
The Terps want to make amends for that game. Defensively, they got better as the season wore on in 2006 and their practices this summer and leading up this game have centered on the basic fundamentals of tackling and pursuing the WVA spread. Will it work? Probably not enough to score the upset, but certainly enough to keep this game close and with the brust of emotion from a sold out home crowd, they should stay within this rather large number.
This is the last time the teams will play each other for a couple of years. While both teams will want to send a message that lingers with their rival for a while, i have a sneaky feeling this intangible element of the game will favor the home underdog.
From a techincal standpoint, WVA has some good numbers as a road favorite, while Maryland, which was a killer at home during Friedgen's first three years, have been money burners at home going on three years now. So, that does not bode well for this pick. But, hey, you can always find technical numbers to support your play, and for this i give you WVA's 2-10 ATS mark vs the ACC and the fact that despite the two-game winning streak WVA has over Maryland, it is the Terps who have covered 5 of the 7 matchups. Plus, the underdog has done well in recent games between these two teams at Maryland.
But, here's what caught my eye about the line. Back in the summer when some of the Books released games of the year lines, this contest was one of them. West Virginia was favored by 10. Now its 16.5 (17 with the hook!). What gives? WVA has looked explosive beyond belief in the early going, so maybe that is at play. When the experts first looked at this game, the # was smaller, but now in an attempt to even out the sides, the number ballooned by nearly a touchdown when it officially opened this week. I'm sure they're trying to entice Maryland backers, and they roped me in as i feel the Terps can put points on the board tonight.
The Terps have only lost by more than 17 at home only once since the start of the 2003 season. And, while we're focusing on if Maryland can stop the 'Neers, how about the other way around? West Virginia has allowed 24 or more points in eight straight games. With a deep, talented WR corps, i feel Friedgen has some magic in his bag tonight. I think the Terps move the ball on the Neers, and i feel like the can control the clock to keep Slaton and White off the field, enough, at least, to keep this game close. Plus, getting back to when WVA has the ball, i really do like the two tackles and linebacker Henderson for Maryland. They've been fuming for a year about last year's result and if WVA has a weakness on Offense it might be overall Offensive Line play. A fired up, playing at home defense can take advantage of that. I like the faster athletes Friedgen has brought in the last couple of years and we'll get a sneak peak at them tonight.
In the end, Slaton and White may prove to be too much, and the terps probably will fall short of the upset bid. I expect lots of points (although the O/U is just too high for me to take a bite) and a Mountaineer win, but Terrapin cover, 38-27.
Good luck everyone!
