Thursday: Play of the Day is Siena

[superbook]

Tuesday: 4-0

Wednesday: 3-1-1

I had a POD winner with Vandy, and easy regular play winners with Toledo & St. Peters, a tough OT loss with Ohio State and a lucky push with UCLA.

Play of the Day record now: 14-15-2

My play of the day is:


Siena -16


When I first saw 16 as the line I almost put down an immediate bet on Loyola-Maryland. Just a month ago, L-M took Siena into triple overtime before losing 82-76.

But then I looked at the numbers and I understood where the 16 was coming from:

- Sagerin "pure points" would make the line 16.92

- In their L5, Siena is averaging 70.6 ppg while Loyola MD is averaging 54.0

So why do I think Siena will have no trouble beating the line:

- in their L5, Siena has shot extremely well, averaging 44% from the field and 39% from the arc vs 34% and 26% respectively for Loyola MD.

- Siena is holding its opponents to 38% from the field, ninth-best in the country.

- Siena is coming off an OT loss at Manhattan on Tuesday night so they're still pissed, but they're also brimming with confidence as they played well enough to win against one of the best teams in the MAAC without their star player for most of the game.

- Siena's leading scorer and by far their best player Dwayne Archbold is going to have a career game: he was provoked (IMO) into early foul trouble with a technical in the first minute and played only 17 minutes and was held to 10 points at Manhattan, 10 points below his season average of 20 ppg. He fouled out with 3:41 to go so he had to sit on the bench and watch his team lose without him in OT. That had to hurt and he'll take out his frustration tonight.

- Loyola- Maryland's season is over, they're 2-10 in conference play and in their last game at Marist they played like they had given up: shooting 16-51 from the field and losing 86-50.

- Loyola-Maryland has a young team which has real trouble on the road, they've lost their L5 on the road by an average of 19 points (14, 9, 28, 27, 18).

- Prior to their loss at Manhattan, Siena's previous road game was a disappointing one point loss at Niagara 74-73. Siena came back in their next game and whipped Canisius 63-43.

- Siena has a decent rebounding team and they outrebounded Loyola Maryland in their first meeting by 59-38. There is no reason not to expect more of the same domination on the boards tonight.

 

[superbook]

Regular Plays:

Idaho +17

Irvine could win by 35 if they wanted to but they won't. They won by 38 at Idaho a couple of weeks ago as a -6.5 point road fav after coming into Idaho pumped up after a big win at Utah State.

If you don't know, Irvine is even lazier than UCLA and they don't know how to put a team away. Jerry Green has the attitude of an NBA player even though no NBA team wanted him.

Idaho will hang around in this game and get the cover.

Irvine will be looking ahead to Utah State on Saturday.

The last two meetings between these two teams at Irvine were decided by four points each.

Irvine is 2-5-1 ATS at home.


Hawaii +4

I like Hawaii to win SU here. For some reason Hawaii isn't getting much respect and people still think they can't win on the road.

The facts:

Hawaii is 19-3, 13-5 ATS and 4-1 ATS on the road

After missing 7 games earlier in the season, Savovic is coming around. Hawaii came in a day earlier for this game just to avoid any travel problems, they'll be ready to play.


Tennessee Tech PK

I'll take the #2 shooting team in the country (behind Kansas) at PK any day.

 

[Nickelback]

To cover 17 points against Loyola Maryland IMO, Siena will have to play a perfect game and shoot much closer to 50%. This play for me had nothing to do with the triple overtime game although it is nice to see that Loyola Maryland can compete with this team. I just see a slow tempo game where 17 points is absolutely HUGE.

Like your other three plays. . . good luck today superbook!

 

[superbook]

Nickelback -- you know I respect your opinion and I know I'm not going to change your mind, but I just want to let you know where I'm coming from.

I see Siena coming in with the same spirit that that they did when they played Iona a couple of games ago. They were coming off a 76-68 loss at Canisius, and then the Saints went 24-47 (51%) hosting Iona in Albany. Archbold scored 28, connecting on 62% from the field and 83% (5-6) from the arc.

Siena continued the hot hand at Niagara in their next game where they shot 55% and lost that game in the final 1.9 second.

I do grant you that 16 is a lot and that Siena -8 First Half might be my play tonight.

gl

 

[hello there]

I, for one, still don't respect Hawaii on the road. They paved their great record on home cooking and lousy teams on the road. They got lucky at Tulsa(I still think Tulsa is the best team in the Wac). Tulsa, SMU, Fresno st, and Louis tech are all just as good or better than Hawaii in the WAC conference. Hawaii got lucky at Tulsa, but lightning rarely strikes twice. This game will tell if Hawaii's win at Tulsa was for real or a lot of dog-luck. I won't be playing this game, but I hope u win, goodluck.

 

[superbook]

Two more thoughts:

1. Loyola Maryland is bad but Siena won't underestimate them given that just a month ago L-M took Siena into triple overtime.

2. Archbold has a chance to be voted league MVP. He's going to need some extra points and boards to make up for poor performance in the Manhattan game where he was limited to ten points in 17 minutes due to foul trouble. I don't see Archbold coming out early, but staying in to improve his stats. I'm looking for a 35 point game out of him tonite.

The line seems steady at 16, meaning equal action on both sides or maybe Nickelback and I are the only ones who are playing this game!!!

gl

- Jon

 

[hello there]

Hawaii just upset SMU, I guess the win against Tulsa wasn't dog luck. I'm glad they beat SMU......congrats on the win.

 

[superbook]

hello there --

Thanks man.

I'm really pissed about Siena. What did I miss?

Fortunately the Ivy is coming up tomorrow so we can make some $$$.

 

[Nickelback]

Being on the other side of you superbook, I was following the game but probably with a different look on the situation entirely. . . looked like Siena didn't make their move until the 2nd half and I never saw them having more than a 14 point lead.

I would have been pissed if Siena ended up covering given the fact that the game was close for a long time.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[crib_19]

Super...my card game sucked ..lost 50....it just didn't happen at the table tonight...anyway..my picks today are hangin' in there...
first two games were pushes then i won three straight...hoping for Portland w/ a back door cover but it doesn't look good...boy was i lucky to get out of the Illinois game w/ a push...the Mich. kid misses a flat out -dunk in side 20 sec. for the Illinois push...you know your cards are bad when your able to watch a basketball game and still play!.. talk to you tomorrow about the Ivy's..
crib

 

[checkraiser]

super
Living close by I had the privilige(not really as it was more torture than privilige) of watching the Siena game which was televised locally. I thought everything you said about the game was pretty much what I was thinking regarding the outcome. EXCEPT who would predict Archbold would have his worst shooting game of the year 3-13 from the field and one of the better free throw shooting teams in the country missed a third of their attempts.
With about 2:40 or so left in the game with siena leading by 14 Archbold (an 85% free throw shooter) gets fouled and proceeds to miss both shots, Siena then turns the ball over on back to back posessions allowing loyola (who seemed as is they could not keep up with some of our better high school teams in the area) to crawl back into the 10-11 point range in which Siena was content to win by. Not that any of this makes you feel any better but Siena did have a more than reasonable shot at covering the number and even though they didn't get there your basis for the play was still solid.
good luck and keep the good info coming

 

[superbook]

Checkraiser --

Thanks for posting.

I did follow the game on the internet but I appreciate your color commentary. I certainly didn't know about those missed foul shots by Archbold. It does make me feel a little better. And hopefully the Ivy will make us some $$$ tonight.

- Jon