Thursday: Play of the Day

superbook

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Another easy winner last night as San Francisco went wire-to-wire over St. Mary?s.


Play of the Day record: 7-3-2
CBB record: 195-170

If you look all the way to the bottom of today?s list of games you?ll see:

Tennessee-Martin ?9.5

Buddy told a good story in the Chat Room last night about some good advice he got years ago from his local. If I remember the story correctly, Buddy?s local told him that the way you can tell how good a team is by what they?ve learned on the road; not necessarily judged by the number of road wins but by the quality of their road play.

In the case of Tennessee-Martin, the team went on the road in mid-December to play five games in twelve days. They lost four of these five, all by double digits or worse at Ole Miss, Winthrop, Memphis and Murray State. Then after trashing division three Berry College at home they went back on the road in January for two conference games.

But to the point of Buddy?s Man, the Skyhawks seem to have gained something from that tough five game road trip.

Because when they went back on the road in January, UTM (as 7.5 point dog) beat Austin Peay 71-65 in Clarksville and then two days later traveled to Nashville where they beat cross-state rival Tennessee State 91-79.

Tonight?s game is UTM?s first division one home game in a month. Time to enjoy the fruits of their labor! And it's a conference game too!

UTM is 6-0 at home this year, South East Missouri is 0-6 on the road.

SEMO is ranked #306 by Sagerin, meaning there are only 21 division one teams which are worse. This is obviously not the same team that went to the NCAAs two years ago.

The Skyhawks should own the paint with forwards 6-8 Jeremy Sargent (12.6ppg, 8.2 rpg and 34 blocked shots) and 6-5 Brian Foster (14.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg) leading the way for a big win here. This is UTM?s only home game for a while so I?m sure they?ll want to make it a good one; they go back on the road to play league favorite Tennessee Tech Monday before visiting Eastern Kentucky and Morehead next weekend.

Nine and half points may sound like a lot, but I'm looking for a 20+ point UTM win here.


FWIW I?ve also played two other home favorites: Wright State ?2.5 and Irvine ?5.

Good luck. Bet with your head not over it!!!!
 
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superbook

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Just as a follow-up:

In response to someone's question the other day, I explained my personal "blackjack" money management style; how each day I win I increase my POD bet by 150% until I lose then I revert to the original 1 unit.

Which makes todays POD bet 3.3 units.:eek:

Friday: Harvard +2 WIN
Saturday: Fullerton +8 PUSH
Sunday, Monday: no time to cap, didn't post
Tuesday: Marist -3.5 (first half) WIN
Wednesday: SF -1 WIN
 

nighthorse

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WOW!!! Didn't intend to steal from ya SB....I feel even better about those. But do you have an answer for why the Wright ST. line is what it is? Seems way off.

Also replied on the Sneaks thread that BC line doesn't look right based on SJ's pathetic road showings. What do you think?

Thanks for all the great info
 

dr. freeze

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hey superbook i wanted to thank you for the EXCELLENT writeups......i try to do my best for the games i know too and this stuff is what we need more of.........appreciate it very much........:)
 

Buckman

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SB great call on your POD.....It seems the best value is in the mid major games......:toast: .....keep up the good work...
 

superbook

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I like those Tennessee asswhippins when I've got money on the asswhipper.:moon:

POD record now 8-3-2:toast:

4-0-1 L5

On my money management system tomorrow's play is 150% of 3.3 units = 5 units.

As there is a limited slate of games tomorrow and I have to put down $2500 on my next POD, my next post will probably be for Saturday's games. I've looked over tomorrow's lines and so far I don't see anything that gives me that ten point cushion that I like.

This win helps me feel a little better after that terrible performance by Wright State earlier tonight.
 

jmizeus

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SB., keep up the good work, very difficult for me to cap those kinda games, no i did not jump on board w/ya but it is nice to know of someone who has a good edge in these kinda games as you do :cool:

MIZE
 

raz19

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sb... solid play on tenn-martin ... took a piece of it... good play!!!!!
 

casper

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superbook not saying i'm the king of money mangagement but i think that the kind of progressive system you are using will ruin your nice streak and sharp capping. not trying to tell you what to do but i just wanted to let you know that in the long run the system you are using will cost you money. handicapping is different from blackjack, it is a game of percentages more than a game of streaks. good luck bro and thanks for all of the great write-ups. gL!!
 

nighthorse

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Still can't figure out the Wright St. thing, oh well.....T-Mar was excellent. Hope you got Irvine cheaper...I got it at three and a half and bailed me out for the evening.

A nail-biter in the last game to get back to somewhere near even isn't what I had in mind.

You chose the right game for the BIG wager. Good work.
 
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