complimentary from my site
complimentary from my site
Burns NFL
REDSKINS (-3 or better)
Game: Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins Game Time: 12/6/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Washington Redskins Reason: I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON. Both teams come off disappointing losses and both now have equal 5-7 records. The team that wins today will still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot while the team that loses will be completely done. Given the venue and the circumstances, I feel that the Redskins will be the more focused and motivated squad. Although disappointed with their current position, realistically, most Redskins' players and fans weren't banking on an extended playoff run this season. Conversely, the defending NFC Champs and their fans assumed winning the NFC North was pretty much a given. The Bears showed some heart in their comeback win over the Broncos two weeks ago. However, any glimmer of hope gained from that victory largely vanished when they blew a 16-7 fourth quarter lead vs. the Giants last week. Playing on a short week, I believe that it will be tough to recover from that painful conference loss. While the Redskins also blew a fourth quarter lead, judging by comments from the players, there was more of a sense of relief to get the game over with (due to the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor) than any dwelling on the loss and what could have been. Now, while still very sad about the loss of their friend, the Redskins are ready to re-focus on football. In other words, I feel that while the Bears may still be thinking about last week, the Redskins have already put that loss behind them. Now, they are ready to go out and win one for their fallen teammate. Its noteworthy that we've reached Week 14, as the Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS (Bears were 2-5-1 ATS) in 2005 and 2006 when playing during the final four weeks of the regular season. I also feel that its significant to point out the yardage difference that these teams have accumulated through their first 12 games. Despite geting badly outgained in the blowout loss to New England, the Redskins are still outgaining their opponents by an average of 330-314 for the season. Conversely, the Bears are getting outgained by a 356-301 average. That differential has been even more pronounced the past three games. While the Bears' offense is getting outgained by a 404-317 margin, the Redskins have outgained their last three foes by a 372-303 margin. The Redskins should be smart enough to avoid letting Hester beat them and I expect their offense to once again outgain the Bears. Combine that with homefield advantage and what I expect will be an emotional advantage, I look for a solid win and cover. *Main Event
BEN BERNSTEIN'S NFL
REDSKINS (-3 or better)
Game: Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins Game Time: 12/6/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Washington Redskins Reason: I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON. Both teams come off disappointing losses and both now have equal 5-7 records. The team that wins today will still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot while the team that loses will be completely done. Given the venue and the circumstances, I feel that the Redskins will be the more focused and motivated squad. Although disappointed with their current position, realistically, most Redskins' players and fans weren't banking on an extended playoff run this season. Conversely, the defending NFC Champs and their fans assumed winning the NFC North was pretty much a given. The Bears showed some heart in their comeback win over the Broncos two weeks ago. However, any glimmer of hope gained from that victory largely vanished when they blew a 16-7 fourth quarter lead vs. the Giants last week. Playing on a short week, I believe that it will be tough to recover from that painful conference loss. While the Redskins also blew a fourth quarter lead, judging by comments from the players, there was more of a sense of relief to get the game over with (due to the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor) than any dwelling on the loss and what could have been. Now, while still very sad about the loss of their friend, the Redskins are ready to re-focus on football. In other words, I feel that while the Bears may still be thinking about last week, the Redskins have already put that loss behind them. Now, they are ready to go out and win one for their fallen teammate. Its noteworthy that we've reached Week 14, as the Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS (Bears were 2-5-1 ATS) in 2005 and 2006 when playing during the final four weeks of the regular season. I also feel that its significant to point out the yardage difference that these teams have accumulated through their first 12 games. Despite geting badly outgained in the blowout loss to New England, the Redskins are still outgaining their opponents by an average of 330-314 for the season. Conversely, the Bears are getting outgained by a 356-301 average. That differential has been even more pronounced the past three games. While the Bears' offense is getting outgained by a 404-317 margin, the Redskins have outgained their last three foes by a 372-303 margin. The Redskins should be smart enough to avoid letting Hester beat them and I expect their offense to once again outgain the Bears. Combine that with homefield advantage and what I expect will be an emotional advantage, I look for a solid win and cover. *Main Event
Karl Garrett
1 MINNESOTA
Yeah, yeah, I know all about the Wolves woes this season, and I know they bring a 4-game losing streak into this one, losing their last 3 games by double-digits. But Minny hasn't exactly played the dregs of the association, as they have met up with Dallas, San Antonio, and the Lakers during their current slide. While Atlanta is improved this season, I don't think they are improved enough that they should be asked to cover near double-digits tonight, even at home. The Hawks did win a 94-87 contest as the 3-point road chalk at the Target Center back on November 24th, and I can see a similar final tonight. Atlanta is just 1-2 against the spread when laying 5-points or more this year, so look for a Hawks outright, and a Timberwolves cover. Grab the points with the road dog tonight.
North Star Sports Service
NFL - 12/6/2007
CHICAGO atWASHINGTON Over 37.5
CBB - 12/6/2007
TOWSON 12
NHL - 12/6/2007
VANCOUVER at NASHVILLE Over 5
JIMMY BOYD
NBA Denver vs. Dallas
Take Denver Nuggets
1 Unit on Denver +7 Dallas is coming off a tough loss to rival San Antonio and the Nuggets are coming off a tough loss to the Lakers. We are expecting a close hard fought game between two worn down team here so we'll take the points. Dallas has lost 7 of its last 8 and 9 of its last 11 ATS. Dallas is just 8-23 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. In other words, when the books are expecting a high scoring game, Dallas has not covered the spread too often. Denver has covered the spread in 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series. Dallas has been consistently overvalued this season and we'll take advantage again here.
Gold Sheet Newsletter play
-----------------------------------------------------------------------THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
*Chicago 19 - WASHINGTON 17?Everyone was shocked by the senseless
death of Pro Bowl S Sean Taylor of the Redskins. But in the dog-eat-dog world
of the NFL, you can be sure 2006 Super Bowl finalist Chicago?desperate to
return to the postseason?will try to attack the already-thin Washington
secondary with speed receivers Bernard Berrian & Devin Hester. Rex making
better decisions and being more careful with the ball since returning to action
following his benching. Redskins, only 1-6-2 vs. spread last 9 at home, too
often aiding the enemy.
(05-WASHINGTON -5' 9-7...SR: Chicago 23-21-1) TV?NFL NETWORK
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Chicago (5-7, 4-8 ATS) at Washington (5-7, 3-7-2 ATS)
The Bears and the Redskins look to bounce back from tough losses and rejoin the NFC playoff picture when they get together at FedEx Field for a Thursday night battle.
Chicago saw a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead turn into a 21-16 home loss to the New York Giants on Sunday as a one-point underdog, continuing a trend that has seen the Bears alternate SU and ATS wins and losses in their last nine games. QB Rex Grossman, for a change, avoided any turnovers in going 25 of 46 for 296 yards and a TD, but he couldn?t engineer a late scoring drive. The Bears also gave up 154 rushing yards to Giants RB Derrick Ward.
Playing under the cloud of safety Sean Taylor?s shooting death, Washington was dealt a 17-16 home loss to Buffalo as a six-point favorite, dropping its fourth straight game, this one on a last-second field goal made easier by coach Joe Gibbs? mental error. With the Bills? Rian Lindell lining up for a 51-yard attempt in the final seconds, Gibbs called consecutive timeouts, the second of which drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, and Lindell then booted the 36-yard game-winner.
Chicago has followed its last four losses this season with SU and ATS victories, and Lovie Smith?s team is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-divisional road games. However, the Bears are on ATS slides of 5-13 overall, 3-10 against the NFC and 2-6 when playing outside the NFC North this year.
Not only have the Redskins lost four in a row, but they?re on a 1-6 ATS slide, including 0-3 ATS at home. Moreover, Washington is stuck in ATS slumps of 1-6-2 at FedEx Field, 2-7-1 as a home favorite, 1-5-2 against non-division foes and 1-9-1 against teams with a losing record.
The straight-up winner is 11-1 ATS in Chicago?s games this season, including 10-0 ATS in the last 10.
These teams have met four times since 2001 and the visitor has covered the spread in all four, including in 2005, when the Bears lost 9-7 in Washington as a 5?-point underdog.
The under is 13-6-3 in Washington?s last 22 games against the NFC, 4-2 for the Bears overall and 21-5-1 when Chicago is as an underdog of three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and UNDER
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Thursday, December 6th
WASHINGTON over Chicago by 3
Understandably, there?s a raw wave of emotion in the Redskin camp
these days that, to a man, hurts right down to the soul. The loss
of teammate Sean Taylor cuts like a knife to a team whose season
was barely hanging by a thread prior to his tragedy. Unfortunately
they must now regroup and move on from Monday?s funeral to
Thursday?s game. Our best guess is if there is one coach in the
league capable of getting the most out of his team (other than
Tony Dungy), in a tough situation like this, it would be Joe Gibbs.
Will it be enough, however, to get past a Bad News Bears bunch
that is 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back travelers? Stay tuned.
BEN BURNS NHL
PREDATORS
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators Game Time: 12/6/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Nashville Predators Reason: I'm laying the price with NASHVILLE. The Canucks will be seeking to avenge a 3-0 loss at G.M. Place on November 1st. However, they played last night (2-1 win at Chicago) while the Predators had the night off. Note that the Canucks are just 6-9 the last 15 times they played a road game after having played the previous day and just 2-5-1 in their last eight games in this series. Additionally, the Canucks haven't fared too well in the "revenge role" the past couple of seasons. In fact, we find them at just 35-44 (-18) the last 79 times they faced a team which defeated them in their last game. Regardlesss of whether or not the Canucks play Luongo, their top goalie, I expect them to struggle this evening. The Predators have been on excellent on home ice in recent years and they're currently 7-3-1 here this season. The Predators won two of three on their road trip and they outshot the Leafs 35-15 in the lone loss. Look for them to have the fresher legs this evening as they continue their improved play and move to 7-3 when facing a team with a winning record. *Best Bet
BEN BURNS NBA
PORTLAND (+2 or better)
Game: Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 12/6/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm taking the points with PORTLAND. The majority of the betting public will be taking the Heat to snap their losing streak tonight. However, I expect their struggles to continue for another night. Dwayne Wade is back and playing relatively well. The Heat are still losing though. They've lost three straight and are just 4-13 for the season. The Blazers are coming off their first road win of the season, shooting a sizzling 51% while scoring 106 points at Memphis. The Blazers got a solid effort from the entire team with especially big games from Brandon Roy and Travis Outlaw. While that was a first on the road, the Blazers have already shown that they're capable of playing that way here at home. In fact, they've won five of eight games here including victories over the likes of Dallas and Detroit. Its also worth noting that the Blazers have thrived over the past year in the "small underdog" role. Since November of last season, they've gone 14-5 ATS (12-7 SU!) when listed as underdogs of four points or less. Miami, on the other hand, is 8-12 ATS the last 20 times it was a favorite of four points or less, losing 11 of those games outright. While it won't be the Oden/Shaq matchup that TNT was hoping for, I look for Roy and co. to provide plenty of highlights as the Blazers keep the momentum going from their first road victory. *TNT GOW
BEN BURNS COLLEGE BASKETBALL
DETROIT (+9 or better)
Game: Butler vs. Detroit U Game Time: 12/6/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit U Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. This is a tough spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are coming off four straight wins over teams from major conferences and they've got a date with their biggest rival from the Horizon League (Wright State) on deck. Butler managed a 10-point win here last season. However, the Titans have actually won six of the last eight meetings here, including a 73-71 win here in 2006. The Titans are off to a 4-3 start and none of their losses have come by greater than eight points. The Titans have been keeping their games close by playing excellent defense, as they are allowing 63 points per game, including just 61.3 at home. The Bulldogs reached the Sweet 16, set a school and Horizon League record with 29 wins and spent most of the season ranked in the Top 25. However, they also lost head coach Todd Lickliter to Iowa and senior starters Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon to graduation. While they are obviously still an excellent team, I don't feel that the Bulldogs deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown more than they were favored by at this venue last season. Expect them to have their hands full, falling to 2-6 ATS the last eight times they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. *Roast
John Fina
December 6, 2007
Selection: Northern Colorado +1 (-110)
Reason: Put us down on Northern Colorado +1 for our Free College Basketball Selection on Thursday. Today Bowling Green will be on the road as they take on Northern Colorado. We will side with Northern Colorado! Both these teams have evenly matched offenses, however, Northern Colorado has a big advantage on defense. In fact, Bowling Green (on the road) is allowing opponents to score an average of 71.7 points per game, while Northern Colorado (at home) is allowing opponents to score an average of only 52.5 points per game. This shows that Northern Colorado has a huge advantage on the defensive end. In addition, Northern Colorado is a perfect 3-0 at home this season. In this case, the value is with the home team that has the superior defense! Take Northern Colorado +1!
Joel Tyson
Can anyone believe just how sorry the Timberwolves are? I have not seen a team this bad in a long time. People continue to talk about the Knicks being the laughing stock of the NBA, well that label may need to be shifted to Minny.
The Wolves have lost 13 of their last 15 games, stand at 2-14 for the year, and are 17-43-2 ATS in their last 62 games overall. The home squad when these two get together has definitely had the upper hand as the homies in the series sit at 7-3 ATS over the last ten.
The Hawks were victorious two weeks ago over the Wolves 94-87 on the road, as they came from 21 points down to get the win and cover.
The Timberwolves have multiple match-up concerns against this Hawks team, and that will be the difference tonight as the Hawks get the win and cover.
2 ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
Dallas was completely out of its element last night against San Antonio, as we didn't see that high-powered, explosive offense we've become used to from the Mavericks. And though some might wonder if they've been set up perfectly for a letdown in this one, a night after tussling with the defending champs, but with everything pointing Denver's way ? I say we buck the trends and side with the home chalk.
Seriously, how in the heck did Denver lose to a Los Angeles team last night, when the Lakers were coming in of a game in Minnesota the night before, and we saw Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum taking IV fluids for a stomach virus. And then they go into the Mile High City and run past the Nuggets? It doesn't make sense, and the bottom line is Denver will now struggle to come to Big D and attempt to hang with a pissed-off Mavericks team.
The Mavericks are 8-1 SU at home this season, while Denver is a paltry 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 0-5 SU and in their last five in Dallas and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
4 MAVERICKS
Matt Fargo
Jacksonville St. Gamecocks v/s Samford Bulldogs 12/6/2007 7:30:00 pm
Samford Bulldogs -10 -110
It has not been a good start to the season for Samford but things get turned around in its OVC opener. This game has some special meaning to the Bulldogs as it?s the last year in the OVC for Samford, whose entire athletic program will move to the Southern Conference next season. Despite losing a lot to graduation and transfer, the Bulldogs are expected to be a player in the conference once again and after a disappointing year last season, they are going to want to get off the a strong start in conference action.
Jacksonville St. is ranked 327th in the country and rightfully so. The Gamecocks are 2-5 on the season with the two wins coming against non Division-I teams while the five losses, with the exception of Georgia, have come against teams they have no business losing against. They lost to Central Arkansas twice, Texas St. and Kennesaw St, ranked 283rd, 318th and 335th respectively. And even though the slate has been littered with cupcakes, the numbers have been putrid.
Jacksonville St. has a statistic that I don?t think I have ever seen before. The Gamecocks are shooting an unheard of 25.5 percent from the free throw line in their three road games. It is not just a single game that has brought them down as they have shot 33 percent or less in all three contests. To put that awful percentage into perspective, based on their 15.7 attempts per game, an average percentage of 65 percent would give them six more made shots from the stripe per game. That is a huge difference.
The Gamecocks are also one of the worst rebo8unding teams in the country as they are -13.8 rpg in margin which is 337th in the country. They have been outrebounded in every Division-I game. Part of the problem is the defense as they allow 86.2 ppg and that increases to 87.7 ppg on the road. Samford likely isn?t going to take advantage because of the style of offense but it will take advantage of the defense it plays as it allows just 60.8 ppg which is the lowest in the OVC. It will be ugly but it will be an easy win.
Play Samford Bulldogs 1 Unit
Bobby Maxwell Smart
While this matchup looks like it might be entertaining by the team names, look for Villanova to blow out the Tigers in this one.
LSU just isn't the team it has been the last few years. The Tigers have had a tough opening month to the season, barely beating Southeast Lousiana by 10 in the opener, then escaping with a 78-74 home win against McNeese State. A loss to an average Oklahoma State team followed in Hawaii and then another escape against tiny Chaminade 78-72.
Villanova is going to be a factor in the Big East with their only loss this season coming to NC State back on Nov. 25, and that was by just a point. Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher are two outstanding players for the Wildcats and will dominate this one tonight.
Don't worry about laying the chalk, Villanova is going to win this one by 20.
2 VILLANOVA
Big Al
At 7 pm, our Horizon Conference Game of the Month is on the Detroit Mercy Titans plus the points over Butler.
Vegas Experts
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, December 6th, 10:35 PM ET
Heat is averaging 87.2 pts/game on the road. Portland is scoring 93.1 at home but 85.6 over its last five games. It has nowhere to go for offense if the Heat shut down Aldridge and Roy as other teams have been doing. These teams have gone under in 6-of-10 at this site. MIAMI is 20-9 UNDER in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons PORTLAND is 11-2 UNDER in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It won a Monday match in Memphis 106-105.
Play on: Under
PS. they are 5-0 this month
DAVE COKIN
I thought Niagara might struggle early, but they're doing okay in spite of their inexperienced starting lineup. Rider hasn't been good on the road and they've had loads of trouble at this locale over the years. With Niagara unbeaten at home and possibly undervalued to date, I think they're worth a shot this evening at the short price
POINTWISE
THURSDAY
WASHINGTON 23 - Chicago 17 - (8:15) -- Both teams are hanging by a thread
in playoff picture, with 'Skins in off not allowing a TD, but losing in final 0:04, on
huge Gibbs blunder. Now on 1-6 spread slide. Bears saw 9-pt lead with 7:00
left, disappear vs the Giants, extending their current spread woes to 5-13.
Have run for 100 yds only 3 times, & rank just 26th on "D". Skins not the best
in this situation: 6-12 ATS off a SU loss as a chalk, & 8-16 ATS in the 2nd of 2
HGs. But check Chicago's 7-28 ATS run on the December road. Not involved.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Thursday, December 6th
WASHINGTON over Chicago by 3
Understandably, there?s a raw wave of emotion in the Redskin camp
these days that, to a man, hurts right down to the soul. The loss
of teammate Sean Taylor cuts like a knife to a team whose season
was barely hanging by a thread prior to his tragedy. Unfortunately
they must now regroup and move on from Monday?s funeral to
Thursday?s game. Our best guess is if there is one coach in the
league capable of getting the most out of his team (other than
Tony Dungy), in a tough situation like this, it would be Joe Gibbs.
Will it be enough, however, to get past a Bad News Bears bunch
that is 6-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back travelers? Stay tuned.
Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
10 DIME
REDSKINS -
MAVERICKS
5 DIME
PROVIDENCE
VALPARAISO
Free Pick - Redskins/Bears Over the posted total
Lang latest RESULTS :
0-3 WED FOR -27.5 DIMES
0-2 tuesday for -22 more dimes
0-3 MONDAY FOR - 44 DIMES
Frank Rosenthal
NFL WEEK # 14
THURSDAY DECEMBER 6TH
BEARS VS REDSKINS
101 BEARS+3 SB
UNDER 38 SB+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA
704 MAVS-7 SB+
705 HEAT-3 SB
UNDER 186.5 SB+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE HOOPS
708 PROVIDENCE-3 SB
712 TEMPLE-12 SB+
722 VILLANOVA-9 SB
724 NIAGARA-3 SB
Brad Diamond Sports
College Basketball
Play on: Butler (7-0 SU) over Detroit (4-3 SU) @ 7:00 EST
If you followed our column or selections on this network, you?re quite aware of the frequent involvement with the aggressive Bulldogs of Butler who finished 29-6 SU LY (21-9-1 ATS). They come back this season with the same three guard set and an experienced starting five, but lack the depth of the well recruited top-ten in the country. During the regular season last year Butler won out over Detroit in both starts, winning by a combined total of 30 points. Despite being a RF the Bulldogs are on a nice 5-0 ATS run in that role and 7-1 ATS off a straight-up victory. Detroit went through another difficult season last time around finishing 11-19 SU and 11-15-2 ATS. Although Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog, Butler is their most difficult encounter to date. In the last 10 Horizon League games the Titans are 1-8-1 ATS and appear to be over their heads here.
Michael De'angelo
Ncaab
S.carolina -3.5
Villanova -9
Nba
Denver +8
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (4-1 run last 22 days!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. Butler is the "class of the Horizon League" but Wisconsin-Green Bay feels as if it can be a strong No.2 to the Bulldogs this year, although Valparaiso and Wright State (last year's champs) may argue. However, I'm 'buying' what UWGB's head coach Rob Jeter is 'selling.' The Phoenix return four of five starters and in the early going, 5-10 freshman PG Fletcher (13.1) has adequately replaced the lone starter lost from last year, Evanochko (15.0). The 6-9 Schachtner (19.7-4.7) will "have his way" inside in this game and the Phoenix have had 10 players see action in all seven games this year, with NINE of those players averaging better than double digits in minutes. Loyola-Chicago fell short of expectations last year despite 21 wins and has just one returning starter this year, 6-1 guard Blount (17.5). He's joined by a weird starting lineup in which he's the only "true" guard, as the team is full of 6-6 to 6-8 players getting most of the minutes. The 6-6 Young (10.3-6.0) is the only other starter reaching double digits and the Ramblers have lost their last four games, since opening with wins over Le Moyne and Eastern Illinois (big deal!). Meanwhile, the Phoenix (5-2) have lost at only Ohio St and a pretty good U Mass team. The WRONG team is favored in this one and the Phoenix should have little trouble winning here (which ensures a cover!). Oddsmaker's Error on Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Big Al
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, December 6th, 8:05 PM ET
At 8:05 pm, our member selection is on the Dallas Mavericks. Last night we went against Dirk Nowitzki & Co. and took the Spurs minus Tim Duncan. San Antonio rewarded us with a 2-point victory. But we'll play on Avery Johnson's crew to rebound off that loss with a blowout win over Denver, as Dallas has covered 14 of 21 at home vs. the Nuggets. Lay it.
Play on: Dallas
Scott Spreitzer's CBB 15* Conference Beatdown! *50-15, 77% ATS Run!
I'm playing UWGB on Thursday. The Phoenix are the second best team in the Horizon (behind Butler) and I believe they should be laying at least a couple of baskets, rather than getting points in this one. They're off to a 5-2 start with their only losses coming at Ohio State and at UMass. UWGB was outstanding at taking care of the ball last season, averaging just 11.7 turnovers per game. They're at it again this season, losing the handle just 11.3 times per game. Four starters returned to the team this season, led by forward Michael Schachtner. The junior is leading a deep UWGB squad in scoring, averaging almost 20 PPG. Ten Phoenix players have seen action in all seven games, and nine are averaging over 11 minutes played per contest. Loyola of Chicago went 21-11 last season, their best in nearly two decades. But they lost a lot with the departure of conference all-leaguer Blake Schilb and Majak Kou. The two combined for 30 PPG last season. The Ramblers began the season with wins over softies LeMoyne and Eastern Illinois. But they've since dropped four in a row. They were clocked on the glass by Western Michigan in the first loss, and have played incredibly sloppy in their last three. In fact, Loy-Chi has just six assists in each of their last three games, and have turned the ball over 10, 21, and 19 times. That's an average assist-to-turnover ratio of 6-to-16.7! They're playing the wrong team with those kind of numbers. Look for UWGB to get off to a quick start in Horizon League play with a strong road performance and win. I'm taking the points with UWGB on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott
Elite Sports Picks
Denver/Dallas (NBA) OVER 213.5
TONY WESTON
We?re going to break up this run and go the other way with a home team as the Portland Trailblazers host the Miami Heat.
So, the Heat have played two games on this six-game West Coast road trip and have lost both games SU at Denver and at Utah, but have managed a split ATS.
But by the time they get to that Dec. 10 matchup in Phoenix for their last game of this roadie, that split is likely to have a decided edge in losses.
While the Portland Trailblazers seem well on their way to another No. 1 overall draft pick, they have played well enough lately to go 2-1 ATS their L3.
I like Portland if for no other reason than Miami?s old, tired legs.
While this one was being billed in the pre-season as Greg Oden vs. Shaquille O?Neal, a season-ending surgery to Oden obviously diminishes that pre-sale hype.
While I?m not sure Oden would?ve done much against the ?Daddy,? I still would?ve liked the Blazers chances.
Even with no Oden, the Blazers are too athletic for Miami.
Go with Portland.
2 BLAZERS (1 to 5 Scale)
Tom Feese 20 star burial atlanta
Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins - Thursday December 6, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 2 units (Normal) ATS: Chicago Bears +3 (-106)
Its been a tough year for both of these teams, especially the Skins, with the loss/death of their Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor just ten days ago. Both teams are coming off of draining and frustrating last minute losses last week (games they both needed to win and could have won, but didnt), and it will get even tougher for the loser of this game, as neither of these 5-7 teams can afford a loss here and continue to have any realistic playoff hopes .While both of these teams have been inconsistent and undependable all year, and Chicago is certainly no bargain with its 4-8 ATS (against the spread) record this year and Rex Grossmans 4/7 ratio of TDs to INTs with just 55% completions, at least da Bears have shown one consistent good trend, and thats been their ability to bounce back from a defeat, going 5-1 SU (straight up) and 4-2 ATS after their first six losses this year, including 3-1 both SU and ATS on the road following a loss, with two of those wins (at Green Bay and at Philly) being upset wins as road dogs. Notice their recent pattern, in which they have alternated outright (and point spread) wins and losses in their last six games (they are due for a win this game). In fact, the situation the Bears face Thursday night is similar in many ways to their Oct 21 game in Philly, where they were coming off of another gut-wrenching last minute home loss, that one to the Vikings, and they faced a decent but beatable foe in the Eagles the result was that Chicago came through with not only a point spread cover as a 5 point dog, but an outright win as well. We think there is a good chance of history repeating itself in Washington for the Bears against a Redskin team that is about on a par with Philly in most respects and is not only beatable at home (3 wins, 3 losses so far this year) but is a lousy home favorite, not only this year (1-4 ATS as a home fave, all in this 3-6 point price range) but last year as well (3-5 W-L and 0-3 ATS as home faves). In addition, Skins are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss (0-2 this year), and 8-16 in the second of two consecutive home games (0-2 LY, none TY until this game), without an intervening bye week. While we realize Chicagos down sides (only three games TY with over 100 yards rushing, and choppy play on both sides of the ball, including having the NFLs 26th ranked defense and the ever present threat of turnovers by QB Rex Grossman), they are also ranked #1 in special teams, with game-breaking KO and punt return specialist Devin Hester as an omnipresent threat, as he showed in winning Bears recent game against Denver almost single handedly. Also, Grossman has started to make better decisions and take better care of the ball, in his second tour of duty TY after getting benched in mid-season. For example, Sundays loss to NY Giants certainly cannot be blamed on him, as he went 25-46 passing, for nearly 300 yards and NO INTS. Anyone who is having a hard time deciding which side to bet on in this game should simply ask themselves whether they would rather have a team (getting 3 points) which won 15 games last year and went to the Super Bowl, with the same head coach and basically the same players as this year, or a team which has been to the playoffs only once in the last three years, did not even qualify as a wild card last year, and is coached by someone who may have been a great coach in his previous life with the Redskins but isnt as sharp as he once was, as indicated by his gift wrapping the Skins last game for Buffalo by forgetting that it is a 15 yard penalty to call two consecutive time outs without an intervening play. Bottom line this is not our favorite match-up of the week -- in fact, we already have five other NFL picks posted for Sunday and Monday night NFL games which we like better than this one, including just our second five unit NFL pick this year (the first one won). But this is the only NFL game until Sunday, and we like it enough to actually have two picks on it (we dont make picks on games just because they are on national TV). Our first pick, for two units, is on Chicago at +3, but if you can get Bears at +3.5 without having to lay ridiculous juice like 125 or more, make it 3 units. We also like the Bears on the money line, at +135, to win the game outright. We base this money line pick on two factors first, in Bears two games TY as a road dog after a loss, they have won both games outright, and second, in 11 of Chicagos 12 games this year, including all six of Bears away games, the point spread winner has been the outright winner on the field as well. Good luck, bet smart, and Go Bears!!!
ATS LOCK
3 Over 38 Chicago
Hoops
3 Wisc G B
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Chicago
Hoops
3 Nuggets
ferringo ... paid for
5.5-Unit Play. Take #732 Southeast Missouri State (-3) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 6)
The home team in this series has won an exceptional eight straight games and SE Missouri has covered the spread in six consecutive games against the Tigers. SE Missouri has won four of its last six, including a home win over Evansville, and has much more experience than TSU. The Tigers start three freshmen that are seemingly allergic to perimeter defense, and against a team that has three outstanding shooters coming off the bench I think that is where our advantage lies. This is TSU?s first true road game and they have yet to beat a Div. I-A team this year. Also, this is only TSU?s second game in the last 18 days. I expect some rust and I expect a double-digit win by the home team.
4-Unit Play. Take #709 Valparaiso (+1.5) over Wright State (7 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 6)
The Crusaders will be playing their first game in the Horizon League tonight and I?m looking for them to make a splash. This is just Wright State?s fourth game of the year ? compared to the eighth for Valpo ? so I don?t expect the Raiders to be as sharp. They got hammered at Marist last Saturday and I think they are still adjusting to the loss of one of the program?s all-time best players, DaShaun Wood. Valpo, on the other hand, has all five of last year?s starters back and I think they?re a bit more comfortable in their own skin right now. Toss in that Wright State could be looking ahead to a huge game with Butler this weekend and I think we have a great situation.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #719 Wisconsin-Green Bay (+1) over Loyola-Chicago (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 6)
At this point I think we are getting the much better team with the points. I understand that Loyola is a tough place to play, but I think the Phoenix not only won?t be intimidated but they will be hell-bent on revenge for two beatings last year. In this series, the better team has swept the season series every year for the past five seasons. This year the more talented club is UW-GB. Loyola is No. 299 in field goal defense this year and are facing the No. 35 field goal offense. The Ramblers can?t get into a shootout because they?re the worst 3-point shooting team in the nation and ranked No. 307 in total offense.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #733 Bowling Green (+110) over Northern Colorado (9 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 6)
Essentially what we have here is one of the worst teams in a pretty bad Big Sky Conference laying points to a sleeper team in the Mid-American Conference. UNC?s wins over Denver and Colorado State really, really don?t impress me but I?m very familiar with Louis Orr?s work and I think he?ll have his team ready.
Last Night Result : cashed 4 out of 5
