THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (20-15) at Arizona (22-12)
The Phillies send right-hander Brett Myers (2-2, 4.70 ERA) to the mound to close out a four-game series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, who will trot out unbeaten ace right-hander Brandon Webb (7-0 record, 2.49 ERA).
The clubs have alternated wins and losses in the first three games of this set, with Philadelphia rallying for a 5-4 victory on Wednesday night. The Phillies have won five of their last six games and are 5-2 in their last seven road starts. The first-place Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have dropped four of their last six and are a middling 5-6 in their last 11 games overall. These two teams met six times in 2007, with Arizona going 5-1 (2-1 at home), after Philly went 5-1 in the series in 2006. The Diamondbacks are 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Myers has made seven starts this season, getting three no-decisions, and the Phillies are just 3-4 in games he?s started. He was solid in his most recent outing Saturday against San Francisco, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings, with 10 strikeouts, but the Giants went on to a 3-2 road win in 10 innings.
Myers is 0-2 with a whopping 7.41 ERA in three road starts this season, but he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts (five appearances) against Arizona. Webb, the 2006 National League Cy Young winner, appears to be on track for that award again. He?s won all seven of his starts, with his worst outing coming on Saturday, when he gave up four runs on five hits in six innings of a 10-4 home victory over the New York Mets. In five of Webb?s seven starts, the D-backs have allowed two runs or less. Webb is 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA at Chase Field this season, and he?s 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA in eight lifetime starts against Philly.
The Phillies are on runs of 11-5 overall, 8-2 in Thursday games, 6-2 against right-handed starters, 8-3 against the N.L. West, 9-2 in Myers? last 11 road starts against winning teams and 20-6 in Myers? last 26 outings against the N.L. West. On the downside, Philly is just 3-9 in Myers? last 12 starts overall and 1-5 with Myers on the highway.
Despite losing two of the first three games of this series, the Diamondbacks continue to sport several winning trends, including 21-10 overall, 24-11 in their last 35 home games, 7-3 at home against righties, 5-0 with Webb going on four days? rest, 5-0 with Webb facing an N.L. East opponent, 20-8 with Webb pitching at home and a sterling 18-4 in Webb?s last 22 starts overall. The over is 6-3-1 in Philadelphia?s last 10 games, 7-3 in its last 10 on Thursday, 4-1 with Myers going on Thursday and 4-1 with Myers facing winning teams. For Arizona, the over is on runs of 9-5-3 at home and 5-2-2 against winning teams, but the under is 15-7-1 in Webb?s last 23 starts overall, 5-1 for Webb against the N.L. East and 11-4-1 in Webb?s last 16 starts at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (22-14) at Detroit (15-20)
Josh Beckett (3-2, 4.19 ERA) is set to toe the slab when the Red Sox wrap up their four-game road set at Comerica Park against the Tigers, who will hand the ball to struggling righty Justin Verlander (1-5, 6.28).
Detroit snapped a five-game losing streak on Wednesday in the most unlikely fashion, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth against Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon to steal a 10-9 victory. The 10-spot was one more run than the Tigers had scored during their three-game slide.
Boston, which won Monday?s series opener 6-3, saw its five-game winning streak come to an end. Still, Terry Francona?s squad is on an 8-2 roll, which comes on the heels of a five-game slide. The Red Sox are still 35-18 in the last 53 meetings in this American League rivalry, including 4-2 this year after taking two of three at home in an early April series. The Tigers won the season series last year, 4-3. Beckett matched the longest outing of his five starts this season in Boston?s 12-4 home win over Tampa on Saturday, going eight innings and allowing four runs on seven hits and four walks. Prior to that, the Rays beat Beckett and the Red Sox 3-0 in Tampa on April 27, with Beckett yielding just two runs on four hits with 13 strikeouts in seven innings but getting no offensive support. Beckett, who is 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA on the highway this season, has only one career start against Detroit: a 7-4 home loss in 2006 in which he gave up five runs on six hits in six innings. Verlander, who got a no-decision in a season-opening 5-4 loss to Kansas City, has proceeded to lose five of six since then, including his last two starts. On Saturday at Minnesota, he gave up four runs on seven hits in seven innings in a 4-1 defeat. Verlander is 1-2 with a lackluster 5.79 ERA at Comerica this year and 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in two career starts against Boston ? one in each of the past two seasons. The Red Sox, who really have no negative trends worth noting, are on a 21-6 tear in their last 27 Thursday contests, 5-2 in their last seven road games, 22-8 in their last 30 against the A.L. Central and 42-18 in their last 60 against losing teams. Also, with Beckett on the hill, Boston is on streaks of 28-1 overall, 14-4 on the road, 7-2 against the A.L. Central, 12-3 when he pitches on four days? rest and 5-0 in his last five road outings against losing teams. The Tigers, conversely, are in slumps of 2-4 at home, 1-5 against right-handed starters, 1-7 in Verlander?s last eight overall and 0-4 in Verlander?s past four versus a winning team. On the bright side, Detroit is in the midst of streaks of 10-1 when Verlander goes against A.L. East teams, 22-7 with Verlander going on four days? rest and 23-10 when Verlander works at home. For Boston, the under is on runs of 7-4-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 7-3-1 against righties and a lengthy 56-28-6 on the road against right-handers. However, the over is 5-2-1 in Beckett?s last eight starts, and the over is also 17-5-1 in Verlander?s last 23 home starts, 5-1 in his last six Thursday outings and 11-3 in his last 14 against a winning team.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Cleveland (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at (1) Boston (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Celtics, who escaped with a Game 1 win in a horrible offensive display from both teams, look to maintain home-court advantage in Game 2 against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers at TD Banknorth Garden.
On Tuesday night, Boston eked out a 76-72 home win but never threatened to cover as a heavy 10-point chalk, continuing its five-game trend of alternating ATS wins and losses. Kevin Garnett was the story for the Celts, scoring 28 points, but Ray Allen was held scoreless and Paul Pierce had just four points, with the duo missing 18 of its 20 shot attempts. Also, Cleveland?s LeBron James had just 12 points and shot 2-for-18 from the floor.
The Celtics had covered the spread in 10 consecutive home games prior to Tuesday?s contest, while Cleveland has now cashed in five of its last seven on the highway (4-3 SU).
Boston is now 3-2 in five meetings this year against Cleveland, but the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in those contests (3-0 ATS in Boston). The home team is on a 6-0 SU run, but the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four, and Cleveland is 8-3-2 ATS in the last 12 clashes, including 5-1-2 ATS in its last seven games in Boston. Finally, in this Eastern Conference rivalry, the underdog is on a 7-0-1 ATS streak.
The Cavaliers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog, and they have additional positive ATS trends of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a playoff underdog, 4-1 after a SU loss and 9-4 in conference semifinal games. On the flip side, Cleveland is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 after scoring less than 75 points, 5-16 ATS in its last 21 after a spread-cover and 1-5 ATS in its past six Thursday games.
The Celtics, despite Tuesday?s effort, are still on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 23-9 overall, 13-3 at home, 10-3 against the Central Division, 9-3 on one day of rest, 18-7 following a SU win, 16-7 against the East and 18-8 as a favorite. But Boston is in an 0-4 ATS funk in conference semifinal games and is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a playoff chalk of five to 10? points.
The ?under? trends run deep for the Cavaliers, including 10-3 overall, 15-5 as a playoff underdog, 5-0 against the Atlantic Division and 11-1 in conference semifinal playoff games. Meanwhile, the under is 7-2 in Boston?s last nine home games, 5-1 in its last six against the Central Division and 3-0 in three home meetings against Cleveland this year. But the over is 10-4 with Boston as a home chalk of five to 10?.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) New Orleans (6-1, 5-2 ATS) at (3) San Antonio (4-3, 2-4-1 ATS)
The Hornets, who continued to show that they are no fluke in routing San Antonio in Games 1 and 2 at home, hit the road for Game 3 at the AT&T Center against the Spurs, who quickly find themselves in a must-win situation in this best-of-7 series.
New Orleans followed its 101-82 Game 1 rout with a 102-84 beat-down in Game 2 on Monday, covering as a three-point favorite in both contests. On the day he learned that he finished second to Kobe Bryant in MVP voting, point guard Chris Paul went out and had 30 points and 12 rebounds for the Hornets, who are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four starts. Conversely, the Spurs are in the midst of a 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS slump.
The Hornets now lead the season series 4-2 SU and ATS, winning and covering the last three, with the smallest margin of victory during this stretch coming in the 19-point blowout in Game 1 of this series. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, but the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run and the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Finally, the straight-up winner is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head contests.
Byron Scott?s Hornets are in ATS funks of 1-6 as road ?pups of five to 10? points, 1-9 on Thursday and 3-7-1 after a spread-cover, but they sport positive ATS trends of 5-2 against the Southwest, 23-10 after a double-digit SU win, 43-20-1 overall, 36-17-1 on two days? rest and 21-10 catching points.
The Spurs are a middling 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 starts and are on additional pointspread slides of 2-8-1 after a SU loss, 3-7 on two days? rest, 6-14-1 against Southwest Division rivals and 5-11-1 after a non-cover. But San Antonio is on a 7-0-1 ATS spree as a playoff chalk of five to 10? points, 14-3-2 ATS as a playoff favorite of any price, 6-2-1 ATS at home and 17-7-1 ATS laying five to 10? points at home.
For New Orleans, the over is on runs of 7-1-1 in the conference semifinals, 5-1 on Thursday, 26-9 on two days? rest and 7-3 as a road pup, but the under is 5-0-1 in the Hornets? last six as a playoff ?dog and 4-1 in their last five on the road. For San Antonio, the over is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 12-5-1 in conference semifinal games and 13-6 as a playoff chalk of five to 10? points, but the under is 16-7-1 in San Antonio?s last 24 against the Southwest Division and 38-17 in its last 55 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
