THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (22-22) at Atlanta (25-21)
Looking to avoid an ugly four-game sweep in Atlanta, the Mets turn to left-hander Johan Santana (5-2, 3.30 ERA), while the Braves will counter with Tim Hudson (6-3, 3.06) in a clash of aces.
Atlanta opened this series by breezing to 6-1 and 6-2 victories in Tuesday?s doubleheader, then came back Wednesday and rolled 11-4. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 outings and are on a 24-6 spree at home, including an MLB-best 19-5 home record this season. The inconsistent Mets, meanwhile, have dropped 11 of their last 19 games (5-6 on the road), going 2-5 in their last seven starts.
The Braves are now 6-2 this season against New York, winning all five games played in Atlanta, and Bobby Cox?s club is now 40-18 in the last 58 head-to-head clashes at Turner Field.
The Mets have been on a tear with Santana on the hill, winning his last six starts, as the lefty has gone 4-0 with two no-decisions. In an interleague contest Saturday at Yankee Stadium, Santana got touched up a little bit, giving up four runs on seven hits in 7 2/3 innings (his longest outing of the season), but he still earned a 7-4 win.
With Saturday?s win at Yankee Stadium, Santana improved to 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA on the highway this season. However, Santana is 0-2 in three career starts against the Braves, despite a sterling 2.41 ERA. On April 6 at Atlanta, he allowed just one run on seven hits in seven innings, but he got no offensive support, and the bullpen gave up a pair of runs in a 3-1 loss
Hudson had a three-game win streak come to an end in Saturday?s 5-4 interleague loss to Oakland at home, as he allowed all five runs on five hits (two homers) in five innings. Prior to that, he had given up just three runs (two earned) in 23 innings over three games, including a three-hit complete-game 2-0 home win over Cincinnati.
Despite Saturday?s results against the A?s, Hudson is 4-1 with a 2.94 ERA at Turner Field this season, and he?s 8-5 with a 3.96 ERA in 14 career starts against the Mets. That includes an 11-5 home win on April 5, when Hudson held New York to three runs on six hits in six innings.
The Mets are in slumps of 2-8 on Thursdays, 1-5 on the road against winning teams and 0-5 against National League East rivals. But they?re perfect in Santana?s last four road starts.
The Braves are 1-5 in Hudson?s last six starts against winning teams, but the team?s trends are all positive from there, including 4-0 against left-handed starters, 12-2 at home against winning teams, 36-16 overall at Turner Field, 4-1 when Hudson starts at home, 4-1 with Hudson going on Thursday and 19-9 in Hudson?s last 28 starts overall.
The over is 6-1 in Santana?s last seven starts, but the under is 9-4-1 in Hudson?s last 14 outings.
Even though last night?s game soared over the posted total, the under is still 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings between these rivals and is 10-2 in the last 12 clashes in Atlanta. Finally, the under is on runs of 40-16-2 for Atlanta overall, 7-2 for Atlanta at home, 20-9-2 for New York against winning teams, 4-1 for New York on Thursdays and 4-1 for New York in divisional play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (28-20) at Toronto (23-25)
The Angels hand the ball to the red-hot Joe Saunders (7-1, 2.48 ERA) as they look to complete a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays, who will send A.J. Burnett (4-4, 4.71) to the hill.
Los Angeles opened the series with a 3-1 victory Tuesday night, then came back Wednesday and held on for a 4-3 win. Following a 2-4 slide, the Angels have bounced back to win four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have come back down to earth after a 6-1 run, and they?re now just 1-4 in their last five home contests.
Despite dropping the first two games of this series, Toronto is still 8-4 in its last 12 meetings with the Angels in Canada and 17-10 in the last 27 clashes overall.
The Angels are 8-1 in Saunders? nine starts this season, including a 4-2 home win over the Dodgers on Friday in interleague play. Saunders allowed both runs on just five hits in 7 1/3 innings to bounce back from his first loss of the season ? in which he allowed just one run on four hits in six innings but got no offensive support in a 2-0 loss at Tampa Bay on May 10.
Saunders is 3-1 with a stellar 2.13 ERA in four road starts this season, but he is 1-2 with a 3.62 ERA in four career outings against Toronto.
Burnett snapped a two-game slide in his last outing Saturday, yielding two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings in a 6-3 interleague win at Philadelphia. Burnett is 1-2 with an inflated 8.64 ERA in three starts (four appearances) at Rogers Centre this season, and he?s 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his only start against the Angels, which came two seasons ago.
The Angels are still just 2-4 in their last six on the highway and 2-5 in their last seven as an underdog, but they are 10-4 in their last 14 Thursday matchups. In addition, with Saunders pitching, L.A. is on streaks of 22-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 7-3 against the A.L. East and 12-2 when he goes on five days? rest.
The Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last eight Thursday games, but they are 35-16 their last 51 at home against lefties. Also, with Burnett starting, Toronto is on streaks of 6-1 against winning teams, 6-2 on Thursday and 8-3 at home against winning clubs.
The over is 5-2 in Saunders? last seven starts on the road and 4-1 in his last five against the A.L. East. Conversely, the under is 9-4 in Burnett?s last 13 at home, 5-1 in his last six against winning teams, 4-1 in his last five on Thursdays and 12-3-1 in his last 16 when pitching on four days? rest.
Additionally, for Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 8-2-1 on the highway and 9-1-1 against losing teams. For Toronto, the under is on rolls of 22-8-1 overall, 10-2 at home, 6-1 on Thursday, 7-2 against lefties and 12-1-2 at home against winning road teams. Finally, with both games in this series staying low, the under is now 38-14-5 in the last 57 meetings between these two teams, including 21-6-3 in the last 30 clashes in Toronto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Detroit (8-4, 7-5 ATS) at (1) Boston (9-6, 6-9 ATS)
The Celtics, who despite short rest managed to pull away and win Game 1, look to maintain their playoff home winning streak at the TD BankNorth Garden in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Pistons.
Boston led by just one at the half of Tuesdays series opener, then outscored Detroit 28-17 in the third quarter and held on from there for an 88-79 win as a 4-point chalk. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce combined for 48 points for Boston, which outshot the Pistons 52.2 percent to 42.4 percent and finished with a 44-22 point edge in the paint. Four of Detroits five starters scored in double figures, but none had more than Tayshaun Princes team-high 16 points.
Boston is now 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs (6-3 ATS), and the Game 1 win snapped the team?s 0-5 ATS slide going back to the conference semifinal series versus Cleveland. In fact, the home team has won all 15 of Bostons postseason games, going 12-3 ATS. Detroit, meanwhile, has followed up a 5-0 ATS run by failing to cover in three of its last four, including two in a row.
The Celtics are now 3-1 SU and ATS against Detroit this season, having won and cashed in the last three clashes, and the straight-up winner is on a 5-0 ATS run in this rivalry. Despite Tuesdays outcome, the road team is still 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head clashes and the underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Pistons are still 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games going back to the regular season, and they are on additional ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 on one day of rest and 4-1 after a non-cover. But Detroit has failed to cash in six consecutive road playoff games as an underdog of less than five points. Also, Flip Saunders squad is in ATS slumps of 1-7 as a road ?dog of any price, 2-8 catching less than five points in the playoffs and 4-9 in roadies against teams with a winning home record.
Finally, the Pistons are 5-16 ATS in their past 21 conference finals games, including a current 0-7 ATS freefall that dates to last years series against Cleveland, in which they failed to cash in all six games (2-4 SU).
The Celtics are on positive pointspread rolls of 12-3 at the Garden, 7-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 6-1 on Thursday and 5-2 laying less than five points. On the negative side, though, Boston is on ATS slides of 2-11 as a home chalk of less than five, 1-5 on one day of rest, 1-4 in the conference finals, 2-5 following a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover. In fact, Doc Rivers squad hasnt covered in two straight games since blowing out Atlanta in Games 1 and 2 in the first round of the playoffs.
Game 1 came up short of the 173.5-point posted price, making the under 5-0 in the last five meetings overall (4-0 this year) and 6-0 in the last six battles at the Garden (3-0 this year).
Additionally, for Detroit, the under is on tears of 17-7 overall (8-4 in the playoffs)), 11-2 on the highway (5-1 in the playoffs), 15-3-1 as a playoff ?dog of less than five points, 18-5-1 as a playoff pup of any price, 19-7 against the East and 19-7-1 in the conference finals. Finally, for Boston, the under is 4-0 as a playoff chalk of less than five, 5-1 in the conference finals, 9-4 at the Garden and 17-7 against the Central Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
