David Malinsky
Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers Jun 19 2008 2:05PM
PICK: Texas Rangers
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS over ATLANTA
Sometimes the best value comes from unusual circumstances that are not grounded in baseball logic. The current 1-7 Texas run behind Scott Feldman is a good example. Feldman has been solid, with a 1.18 WHIP through those eight games a better indicator than a 4.56 ERA, and in the four starts from this mound it has been even better - a 0.96 WHIP and a 2.08 ERA. He also worked at least six full innings in seven of those starts, yet it all adds up to a 1-7 despite being backed by one of the best offenses in that game, which is why the Rangers are not being given much respect by the marketplace for this game. That gives us an excellent line to work with, especially with Milton Bradley slated to return to the lineup.
There is also some respect being given to Charlie Morton here, but we do not believe there is merit. Yes, he has had a decent season in the Minor?s, and also got a win against the Angels in his first start since being called up. But this is a guy that has toiled at the lower levels since being drafted in 2002, and sports an uninspiring 30-45/4.53 through those years. He throws a fast-ball in the mid 90?s, which can help elsewhere but is absolutely the wrong dimension to bring against this lineup in this park, and we will call for a Texas team that has been rocking right-handed fast-balls all season to turn this into a true ?Welcome to the Big League?s? for Morton. Remember, this was not a merit call-up, but one that was forced because of injuries to Atlanta?s starting rotation. And an inconsistent Brave bullpen will only add fuel to the fire in the latter stages.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Jun 19 2008 2:15PM
PICK: Kansas City Royals
REASON FOR PICK: 5* KANSAS CITY over ST. LOUIS
Kansas City is playing solid baseball right now. The key is that the marketplace does not realize just how solid it has been, and that is what gives us such a great price to work with in this one. The Royals got relegated to the bottom of baseball?s barrel when they endured that 0-12 run, but they have shown their grit in snapping back, all the while showing potential in several key areas.
The turnaround started with a 2-2 split in Yankee Stadium, and it would have been a 3-1 if one major lead had not been lost in the 9th inning. Then it was a disappointing 1-2 at home in a series vs. Texas, but that one also swung in a bitter way - if now for seeing a 5-1 lead in the 8th disappear of the series opener, they win that set. Then it was on to Arizona, where they dominated the Diamondbacks to a 20-7 tune, but only got a 2-1 series win because of an extra innings loss. Now they have already clinched the battle for local bragging rights vs. the Cardinals, and will bring plenty of momentum to the table and they go for the sweep. Take away those bitter one-run defeats, and it would be a surge that would be visible to all.
Now we get Zack Greinke right after he got back on form against Arizona in his last outing (seven innings, no runs, three hits), and after facing the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Yankees on the road in his last three outings he is stepping way down in class here, as the absence of Albert Pujols is finally taking a toll on a Cardinal lineup that has been held to three runs or less in six of the last seven games. And a Kansas City bullpen that has not been scored on since last Friday does not carry a fatigue rating anywhere - Joakim Soria has worked each of the first two games in this series, but in getting those saves only needed 20 pitches, including just seven last night.
Meanwhile it is more than just the St. Louis offense that is a mess today; Tony LaRussa could be facing real problems on the mound. His original intent was to start Anothony Reyes this afternoon, but Reyes will be shelved indefinitely with an elbow injury. That forces Brad Thompson into Major League action for the first time since he went on the DL on April 23rd, and there is no indication that he is ready yet. Over two rehab starts with AAA Memphis he has allowed seven runs on 13 hits over just 8.2 innings, and in his last outing he faced 18 batters without recording a single strikeout. He was scheduled for at least one more Minor League start before being called up, the Cardinal way of admitting that he is not ready, and we would not be surprised to see his stuff sorely lacking in this one.
Padres (RL) at Yankees (RL) Jun 19 2008 1:05PM
PICK: Yankees (RL)
REASON FOR PICK: 4* NY YANKEES Run Line over SAN DIEGO
Here is one that should not come as any surprise. In winning the first two games of this series by a combined 17-5, the Yankees have led by multiple runs at the end of 17 of the 18 innings, and we cashed easily both times. Now we can play the Run Line in a pick?em range, and that is the mode for another game that we do not believe will be close.
Here are the updated Padre numbers in this role - they are 5-18 on the road against non-division opponents, with 15 of the losses coming by two runs or more. They are also 6-15 against teams that currently sport winning records. So why are we left with a fair range to work with? Largely because the 2-0/1.29 that Josh Banks shows in the pitching forms is leading to a lot of double takes. It will take a lot more than those 20 innings to convince us, however - he worked to a 1-3/6.80 tune over 11 appearances in the Minor?s (six starts, five outings in relief), and does not have the kind of pedigree to tell us that his current form is for real. That makes this the ideal setting to step in, as he faces a tough lineup from a most challenging mound.
We also get a reduced rate here because Joba Chamberlain has not been all that impressive as a starter, but in many ways this can feel like Opening Day for him. First the major pressure is now off, after he has taken the ball to open a game three times. Second, by stretching out to six innings in his last outing at Houston, he shows that he has built his arm strength up to the point at which we can count on him to work some quality innings. Those innings come easily against the feeble Padre offense, and we can call for him to show his best stuff since joining the rotation in a game in which we also expect him to have a big lead to work with. And while Marino Rivera has worked both games in this series, he only needed 11 pitches last night, and will be available.
