Thursday Service Plays 6/5/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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Professional Gamblers Newsletter
We have these plays today:
Major League Baseball:
REDSOX -116 over Rays (Lester-Shields)
WHITESOX -160 over Royals (Contreras-Meche)
Comments:
When you have an even number of sports bets you can expect to go 1-1, (or 2-2, 3-3, etc.) If you have 2 plays with a 60% chance of winning each individual bet, you figure to go 2-0 only 36% of the time, (0.60 x 0.60 = 0.36). With a 70% expectation per bet, you're still looking at only 0.70 x 0.70 = 49%.
Lem Banker once told me he tries to get an odd number of bets (3, 5, 7, etc.) because he thinks he can usually win that extra play.
The trouble is, it's not a good idea to "push" a doubtful pick simply to make an odd number of bets, nor is it a good idea to pass a playable bet to avoid having an even number of bets. It's easy to "prove" my point: Just look what happens in any 2-day stretch. Two days of 3 bets each, and whaddaya got?...........Six plays.
The moral of the story is, if you find an advantage bet it, and if you're not happy with enough advantage don't bet it. Each bet should stand on its own.
In today's plays, be ready to go 1-1. That's the most likely outcome. Just know that we're more likely to go 2-0 than we are to go 0-2.
Good luck. - J. R. Miller
We have these plays today:
Major League Baseball:
REDSOX -116 over Rays (Lester-Shields)
WHITESOX -160 over Royals (Contreras-Meche)
Comments:
When you have an even number of sports bets you can expect to go 1-1, (or 2-2, 3-3, etc.) If you have 2 plays with a 60% chance of winning each individual bet, you figure to go 2-0 only 36% of the time, (0.60 x 0.60 = 0.36). With a 70% expectation per bet, you're still looking at only 0.70 x 0.70 = 49%.
Lem Banker once told me he tries to get an odd number of bets (3, 5, 7, etc.) because he thinks he can usually win that extra play.
The trouble is, it's not a good idea to "push" a doubtful pick simply to make an odd number of bets, nor is it a good idea to pass a playable bet to avoid having an even number of bets. It's easy to "prove" my point: Just look what happens in any 2-day stretch. Two days of 3 bets each, and whaddaya got?...........Six plays.
The moral of the story is, if you find an advantage bet it, and if you're not happy with enough advantage don't bet it. Each bet should stand on its own.
In today's plays, be ready to go 1-1. That's the most likely outcome. Just know that we're more likely to go 2-0 than we are to go 0-2.
Good luck. - J. R. Miller
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
These are Thursday's plays:
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
5 STAR PARLAY: (902) PHILADELPHIA (-$225) and NY YANKEES (-$156)
(Listing Hamels and Wang only)
(Risking $500 to win $685)
12:05PM Central Time
5 STAR: (903) HOUSTON (+$110) over Pittsburgh
(Listing Backe and Maholm)
(Risking $500 to win $550)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (921) KANSAS CITY (+$150) over Chicago
(Listing Meche only)
(Risking $100 to win $150)
7:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (909) NY METS (-$115) over San Diego
(Action)
(Risking $115 to win $100)
9:05PM Central Time
*** EZWINNERS NBA ***
1 STAR: (502) BOSTON (-2.5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $110 to win $100)
8:05PM Central Time
*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
5 STAR PARLAY: (902) PHILADELPHIA (-$225) and NY YANKEES (-$156)
(Listing Hamels and Wang only)
(Risking $500 to win $685)
12:05PM Central Time
5 STAR: (903) HOUSTON (+$110) over Pittsburgh
(Listing Backe and Maholm)
(Risking $500 to win $550)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (921) KANSAS CITY (+$150) over Chicago
(Listing Meche only)
(Risking $100 to win $150)
7:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (909) NY METS (-$115) over San Diego
(Action)
(Risking $115 to win $100)
9:05PM Central Time
*** EZWINNERS NBA ***
1 STAR: (502) BOSTON (-2.5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $110 to win $100)
8:05PM Central Time
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
HONDO
June 5, 2008 -- Hondo rolled with the Reds last night but missed with the Blue Jays and Orioles, which caused bank roll- shrinkage to 430 carrasquels.
Tonight, strike up the band - the one and only Jimmy Shields is performing in Fenway Pahhhk. Ten units on the Rays. Also 10 on the Celtics to collect No. 17.
June 5, 2008 -- Hondo rolled with the Reds last night but missed with the Blue Jays and Orioles, which caused bank roll- shrinkage to 430 carrasquels.
Tonight, strike up the band - the one and only Jimmy Shields is performing in Fenway Pahhhk. Ten units on the Rays. Also 10 on the Celtics to collect No. 17.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Bob Akmens comp
Texas Rangers (117)
Thu Jun 5 '08 8:05p
C.C. Sabathia goes for the Indians?and how many times in all the years I?ve handicapped have I seen this? Cy Young-Winner one year?Cy Young-Bum the next.
Of course, when they gave this guy the Cy Young, I had to scratch my head. But what do I know? I?ve only been one of this great country?s best baseball handicappers for 30+ years. And the defending national baseball handicapping champ.
Keep in mind that Sabathia had an official record of 20-9. Add in his 8 no-decisions to get a better picture of his seasonal performance, and you get a team record of 24-13 in all his starts. Was that worth the Cy Young? How about his profitability if you had bet on him in every one of those starts? You would have netted +5.6 wins. Not bad, you think?
Were there any pitchers with better numbers than that? Just a few. Like 32 other guys. 18 in the NL, and 14 in his own league. I had fun looking this up. Even his teammate Carmona had better numbers: a team record of 24-11 in all of his starts and a +10.7 net wins figure if you bet them all. How did Josh Beckett with a 25-9 team record not win this award?
Why do I go through all of this stuff a year later? Because it?s all relevant to this game. Don?t look at games in a vacuum when you handicap them ? look at them through the big-picture window. Try to fit the puzzle pieces together instead of having gaps in your knowledge.
Obviously the public remembers a Cy Young award. And that?s why this guy ? who is having a bum of a season so far with his 3-7 record ? which extrapolates to a Cy No- Young award-type 8-20 W-L full-season record ? is the -1.27 favorite here vs Kevin Millwood at Arlington.
You want the biggest dichotomy in all of baseball between home performance and road performance by a single pitcher?
You got it?again!
Unbelievably enough, the Rangers are 9-1 in Millwood?s last 10 at home?and 0-13 in his last 13 away from Arlington. How do you explain something like that? I?ve seen that almost absolute polar-extreme before ? but it?s very rare. Can you imagine the guy who keeps on betting Millwood on the road, saying ?he?s due?? Due for what? Another loss?
So, while any team in baseball has a chance to win any given game, you really don?t want to go with the Indians here, folks.
Go with the RANGERS at home at +1.17 in this 8:05 PM ET matchup.
Texas Rangers (117)
Thu Jun 5 '08 8:05p
C.C. Sabathia goes for the Indians?and how many times in all the years I?ve handicapped have I seen this? Cy Young-Winner one year?Cy Young-Bum the next.
Of course, when they gave this guy the Cy Young, I had to scratch my head. But what do I know? I?ve only been one of this great country?s best baseball handicappers for 30+ years. And the defending national baseball handicapping champ.
Keep in mind that Sabathia had an official record of 20-9. Add in his 8 no-decisions to get a better picture of his seasonal performance, and you get a team record of 24-13 in all his starts. Was that worth the Cy Young? How about his profitability if you had bet on him in every one of those starts? You would have netted +5.6 wins. Not bad, you think?
Were there any pitchers with better numbers than that? Just a few. Like 32 other guys. 18 in the NL, and 14 in his own league. I had fun looking this up. Even his teammate Carmona had better numbers: a team record of 24-11 in all of his starts and a +10.7 net wins figure if you bet them all. How did Josh Beckett with a 25-9 team record not win this award?
Why do I go through all of this stuff a year later? Because it?s all relevant to this game. Don?t look at games in a vacuum when you handicap them ? look at them through the big-picture window. Try to fit the puzzle pieces together instead of having gaps in your knowledge.
Obviously the public remembers a Cy Young award. And that?s why this guy ? who is having a bum of a season so far with his 3-7 record ? which extrapolates to a Cy No- Young award-type 8-20 W-L full-season record ? is the -1.27 favorite here vs Kevin Millwood at Arlington.
You want the biggest dichotomy in all of baseball between home performance and road performance by a single pitcher?
You got it?again!
Unbelievably enough, the Rangers are 9-1 in Millwood?s last 10 at home?and 0-13 in his last 13 away from Arlington. How do you explain something like that? I?ve seen that almost absolute polar-extreme before ? but it?s very rare. Can you imagine the guy who keeps on betting Millwood on the road, saying ?he?s due?? Due for what? Another loss?
So, while any team in baseball has a chance to win any given game, you really don?t want to go with the Indians here, folks.
Go with the RANGERS at home at +1.17 in this 8:05 PM ET matchup.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (12-3, 10-4-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (12-8, 8-12 ATS)
The No. 1 seeds from each conference renew one of the most renowned rivalries in all of sports when the Lakers travel to the TD Banknorth Garden to face the Celtics for Game 1 of the best-of-seven NBA Finals.
Los Angeles closed out the defending champion San Antonio Spurs in five games, winning the clincher 100-92 last Thursday as a 7?-point home chalk to claim its first Western Conference crown since 2004. The Lakers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 starts overall dating to the regular season, including 4-2 ATS in their last six.
Boston took out Detroit in six games to earn the Eastern Conference title and a return trip to the Finals for the first time since 1987. In the clinching Game 6 on Friday, the Celtics posted an 89-81 road win as a five-point underdog. Despite that result, the C?s have struggled at the betting window throughout the playoffs and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, despite getting a 3-3 ATS split with Detroit.
These longtime rivals met twice in the regular season, with Boston rolling to wins in both contests, which were played before Los Angeles acquired center Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies, The Celtics won 107-94 at home in November laying eight points and 110-91 on Dec. 30 catching three points in L.A.
Prior to this season, the Lakers had won three in a row and six of eight head-to-head clashes dating to 2003, and despite the two non-covers this year, L.A. is still 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, Phil Jackson?s squad has cashed in five of the last six battles in Boston, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Lakers have four road victories in the 2008 playoffs (4-0 ATS), while the Celtics have just one home loss in 11 postseason games, having dropped Game 2 against the Pistons. However, since cashing in all four home games of a first-round series against Atlanta, Boston is 1-6 ATS on its own floor.
Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant leads all playoff scorers, averaging 31.9 points per game, along with 6.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists, while Gasol is averaging 17.7 points and 8.9 rebounds for L.A. in the playoffs. Boston doesn?t have anyone in the top 10 in playoff scoring, with Kevin Garnett checking in at 14th at 21.0 ppg., but Garnett is also hauling down 9.8 rebounds per game. Paul Pierce is Boston?s second-leading scorer, at 19 ppg, and he?s adding 5.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.
The Lakers average a playoff-best 105.9 ppg while allowing 99.5. The Celtics aren?t nearly as prolific offensively, putting in just 91.6 ppg in the playoffs, but they?re the top defensive team, giving up just 87.3 ppg. Boston has outrebounded its three playoff opponents by an average of 39.4-36.1 per game, while the Lakers have been outrebounded 43.9-40.5.
The Celtics, who have 16 championships, and the Lakers, who have 14 titles, have met 10 times previously in the NBA Finals. However, this is their first Finals matchup since 1987, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson carried the banner for the league. Boston holds a commanding 8-2 edge in championship series, winning the first eight clashes before Los Angeles ? behind Johnson during its ?Showtime? era ? broke through with victories in 1985 and 1987.
Los Angeles won the 1985 and ?87 series 4-2, overcoming Boston?s homecourt advantage in 1985 and beating the Celts in L.A. to win the title. In 1987,
The Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five NBA Finals games, stemming from their stunning 2004 championship series loss to Detroit. But the recent pointspread trends are nothing but positive from there for L.A., including 36-16-2 overall, 11-2-1 after a SU win, 7-1 as a road ?dog of less than five points, 4-0 as a playoff pup of that same price, 19-7-2 as a road underdog and 10-4 against the Eastern Conference. Finally, the Lakers are 15-3-1 ATS this season as an underdog of less than seven points.
The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Western Conference, 7-2 ATS in their last nine at home against teams with a winning road record, 6-2 ATS in their last eight on Thursday and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Pacific Division. However, Boston is mired in ATS funks of 0-6 after a spread-cover, 1-4 as a home chalk, 2-5 as a playoff favorite of less than five points, 3-7 after a SU win and 19-39 as a home chalk of less than five points.
Los Angeles stayed under the total in all five games against the Spurs, and the under is on further runs for the team of 6-2 on the highway, 6-1 as a road underdog and 4-1 as a playoff pup. However, the over is 5-1 in the Lakers? last six against Atlantic Division foes. For Boston, the over is 4-1 in its last five at the Garden, but the under is on runs of 8-3 on Thursdays, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 when laying less than five points.
Finally, the over/under split in the two regular-season meetings this year between these rivals, with the under being the play in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (12-3, 10-4-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (12-8, 8-12 ATS)
The No. 1 seeds from each conference renew one of the most renowned rivalries in all of sports when the Lakers travel to the TD Banknorth Garden to face the Celtics for Game 1 of the best-of-seven NBA Finals.
Los Angeles closed out the defending champion San Antonio Spurs in five games, winning the clincher 100-92 last Thursday as a 7?-point home chalk to claim its first Western Conference crown since 2004. The Lakers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 starts overall dating to the regular season, including 4-2 ATS in their last six.
Boston took out Detroit in six games to earn the Eastern Conference title and a return trip to the Finals for the first time since 1987. In the clinching Game 6 on Friday, the Celtics posted an 89-81 road win as a five-point underdog. Despite that result, the C?s have struggled at the betting window throughout the playoffs and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, despite getting a 3-3 ATS split with Detroit.
These longtime rivals met twice in the regular season, with Boston rolling to wins in both contests, which were played before Los Angeles acquired center Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies, The Celtics won 107-94 at home in November laying eight points and 110-91 on Dec. 30 catching three points in L.A.
Prior to this season, the Lakers had won three in a row and six of eight head-to-head clashes dating to 2003, and despite the two non-covers this year, L.A. is still 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, Phil Jackson?s squad has cashed in five of the last six battles in Boston, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Lakers have four road victories in the 2008 playoffs (4-0 ATS), while the Celtics have just one home loss in 11 postseason games, having dropped Game 2 against the Pistons. However, since cashing in all four home games of a first-round series against Atlanta, Boston is 1-6 ATS on its own floor.
Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant leads all playoff scorers, averaging 31.9 points per game, along with 6.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists, while Gasol is averaging 17.7 points and 8.9 rebounds for L.A. in the playoffs. Boston doesn?t have anyone in the top 10 in playoff scoring, with Kevin Garnett checking in at 14th at 21.0 ppg., but Garnett is also hauling down 9.8 rebounds per game. Paul Pierce is Boston?s second-leading scorer, at 19 ppg, and he?s adding 5.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.
The Lakers average a playoff-best 105.9 ppg while allowing 99.5. The Celtics aren?t nearly as prolific offensively, putting in just 91.6 ppg in the playoffs, but they?re the top defensive team, giving up just 87.3 ppg. Boston has outrebounded its three playoff opponents by an average of 39.4-36.1 per game, while the Lakers have been outrebounded 43.9-40.5.
The Celtics, who have 16 championships, and the Lakers, who have 14 titles, have met 10 times previously in the NBA Finals. However, this is their first Finals matchup since 1987, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson carried the banner for the league. Boston holds a commanding 8-2 edge in championship series, winning the first eight clashes before Los Angeles ? behind Johnson during its ?Showtime? era ? broke through with victories in 1985 and 1987.
Los Angeles won the 1985 and ?87 series 4-2, overcoming Boston?s homecourt advantage in 1985 and beating the Celts in L.A. to win the title. In 1987,
The Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five NBA Finals games, stemming from their stunning 2004 championship series loss to Detroit. But the recent pointspread trends are nothing but positive from there for L.A., including 36-16-2 overall, 11-2-1 after a SU win, 7-1 as a road ?dog of less than five points, 4-0 as a playoff pup of that same price, 19-7-2 as a road underdog and 10-4 against the Eastern Conference. Finally, the Lakers are 15-3-1 ATS this season as an underdog of less than seven points.
The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Western Conference, 7-2 ATS in their last nine at home against teams with a winning road record, 6-2 ATS in their last eight on Thursday and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Pacific Division. However, Boston is mired in ATS funks of 0-6 after a spread-cover, 1-4 as a home chalk, 2-5 as a playoff favorite of less than five points, 3-7 after a SU win and 19-39 as a home chalk of less than five points.
Los Angeles stayed under the total in all five games against the Spurs, and the under is on further runs for the team of 6-2 on the highway, 6-1 as a road underdog and 4-1 as a playoff pup. However, the over is 5-1 in the Lakers? last six against Atlantic Division foes. For Boston, the over is 4-1 in its last five at the Garden, but the under is on runs of 8-3 on Thursdays, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 when laying less than five points.
Finally, the over/under split in the two regular-season meetings this year between these rivals, with the under being the play in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
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- 36
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (31-26) at Atlanta (31-28)
The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco (5-3, 4.48 ERA) to the mound to face the Braves and rookie Jair Jurrjens (5-3, 3.45) as these N.L. East rivals wrap up a four-game series at Turner Field.
Florida, which lost the first two games of this series, scored four runs in the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon to turn a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak overall and a three-game losing skid to the Braves. The Fish are still only 2-6 in their last eight (all against the N.L. East), while Atlanta has dropped six of its last nine. On the bright side for the Braves, they?re on runs of 39-17 at Turner Field, 6-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 in Game 4 of a series, 8-3 against winning teams, 20-6 against right-handed starters and 5-1 on Thursdays.
The season series is now tied at 4, but the Braves are still 37-16 in the last 52 head-to-head battles at Turner.
Nolasco is 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his last five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in the last three. On Saturday at Philadelphia, he allowed two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings as Florida scored a big 7-3 upset win.
With the victory at Philadelphia, the 25-year-old right-hander improved to 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA in seven road starts this season. He?s also 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six appearances (five starts) against the Braves. But he got pelted by Atlanta in an 8-0 home loss in April, giving up six runs on nine hits ? including four homers ? in just 4 2/3 innings. Florida is just 1-4 in his five career starts against Atlanta (0-2 in Turner Field).
The Braves are 3-1 in Jurrjens? last four efforts, though the 22-year-old is just 1-0 with three no-decisions in that span. In an 8-7 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday, the youngster got knocked around for six runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings, easily his worst and shortest outing of the year.
Jurrjens is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in six home starts this year (all Atlanta wins) and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his lone career start against Florida ? a 4-0 road loss in April in which he gave up two runs on four hits in six innings.
With Nolasco throwing, the over for Florida is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 in division play and 12-4-1 with the starter going on four days? rest. On the flip side, the under is 8-4 in Jurrjens? 12 starts this year (3-3 at home).
The over for the Marlins is on runs of 20-7-3 overall, 11-1-3 on the road, 62-26-9 in divisional play and 24-9-3 in Game 4 of a series, though the under is 6-1 in the team?s last seven on Thursday. For Atlanta, the under trends include 36-16-3 overall, 7-4-1 in division play and 4-0 on Thursday, but the over is 6-1-1 in its last eight against winning teams, 5-1-1 in its last seven at Turner and 36-16-5 in the last 52 when playing the fourth game of a series.
Finally, the over is 3-0-1 in the last four series meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (35-24) at Boston (37-25)
The Red Sox look to extend a 12-game home winning streak ? and put the finishing touches on another three-game Fenway Park sweep of the Rays ? when they send southpaw Jon Lester (3-3, 3.67) to the mound opposite Tampa Bay?s James Shields (4-3, 3.24 ERA).
Behind a strong outing from ace Josh Beckett, Boston rolled to a 5-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday night for their 12th consecutive home victory. The Red Sox continue to sport the best home mark in the majors at 23-5, including 5-0 against the Rays. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses, and while the Rays are 18-8 in their last 26 games, they?re now 11-14 on the road this season and 43-99 in their last 142 games as a visitor dating to 2006.
The home team in this American League East rivalry is now 8-0 this year, with Boston winning the last five meetings after Tampa took the first three. The Red Sox have completely dominated this rivalry over the years, winning 97 of the last 140 clashes and going an astounding 44-9 in the last 53 head-to-head battles at Fenway Park, including 7-0 in the last seven in Beantown.
Shields hasn?t earned a win since May 9, going 0-1 with no-decisions in his last three starts, but the Rays won all three of those games and are 6-2 in his last eight trips to the mound. On Friday against Chicago, he threw a solid six innings, yielding one run (a solo homer) on seven hits in Tampa?s 2-1 home victory. That was Shields? shortest outing of his last five starts, in which he has a complete-game shutout, an eight-inning effort and two starts of seven-plus innings.
Shields is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five road starts this season, and he?s 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA in six career starts against Boston, with the win coming in a dominant complete game in April. In that contest, Shields allowed just two hits and a walk, with seven strikeouts, as Tampa won 3-0 at home. However, six days later at Boston, he got blitzed for seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings as the Rays lost, 12-4. He?s 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in two career starts at Fenway.
Lester settled for his seventh no-decision in his most recent start on Saturday, a game Boston won 6-3 at Baltimore. Lester gave up all three runs on seven hits in five innings in that start. Including his first career no-hitter, Lester has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, but he?s lasted at least six innings just four times during this stretch.
Lester?s no-hitter came in a 7-0 rout of the Royals in his most recent home start, as the lefty improved to 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six outings at Fenway. He?s also 2-0 with a 4.71 ERA in five career starts against Tampa, including a 7-3 Boston victory at home last month in which he allowed one run on four hits in six innings.
The Rays are just 2-10 in Shields? last 12 road starts against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five Thursday starts. On the positive side, Tampa is on streaks of 6-1 on Thursday, 4-2 in division games, 8-4 overall and 21-9 in the third game of a series.
The Red Sox are on a 41-12 tear at Fenway dating to 2007, and they?re 23-6 in their last 29 on Thursday and 40-17 in their last 56 at home against teams with a losing road record. Also, with Lester taking the ball, Terry Francona?s club is on runs of 18-8 overall, 8-2 at home, 6-1 in Game 3 of a series, 9-2 inside the division and 9-2 when he pitches on four days? rest.
The over is 5-0 in Shields? last five Thursday starts. However, with Lester starting, the under is on runs of 12-5-2 overall, 5-1 at Fenway and 5-1-2 in division games.
The under streaks for the Rays including 6-1 overall, 6-1 against southpaw starters, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on Thursdays and 16-6-1 in the third game of series. But the over is 9-4-1 in Tampa Bay?s last 14 roadies. Meanwhile, Boston is riding ?over? trends of 6-2-3 against the A.L. East, 4-2 at home against teams with a losing road record and 12-4 in Game 3 of a series.
Finally, the over is on a 4-1 in the last five series meetings between these clubs (all in Boston), with the lone under coming in last night?s contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (31-26) at Atlanta (31-28)
The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco (5-3, 4.48 ERA) to the mound to face the Braves and rookie Jair Jurrjens (5-3, 3.45) as these N.L. East rivals wrap up a four-game series at Turner Field.
Florida, which lost the first two games of this series, scored four runs in the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon to turn a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak overall and a three-game losing skid to the Braves. The Fish are still only 2-6 in their last eight (all against the N.L. East), while Atlanta has dropped six of its last nine. On the bright side for the Braves, they?re on runs of 39-17 at Turner Field, 6-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 in Game 4 of a series, 8-3 against winning teams, 20-6 against right-handed starters and 5-1 on Thursdays.
The season series is now tied at 4, but the Braves are still 37-16 in the last 52 head-to-head battles at Turner.
Nolasco is 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his last five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in the last three. On Saturday at Philadelphia, he allowed two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings as Florida scored a big 7-3 upset win.
With the victory at Philadelphia, the 25-year-old right-hander improved to 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA in seven road starts this season. He?s also 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six appearances (five starts) against the Braves. But he got pelted by Atlanta in an 8-0 home loss in April, giving up six runs on nine hits ? including four homers ? in just 4 2/3 innings. Florida is just 1-4 in his five career starts against Atlanta (0-2 in Turner Field).
The Braves are 3-1 in Jurrjens? last four efforts, though the 22-year-old is just 1-0 with three no-decisions in that span. In an 8-7 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday, the youngster got knocked around for six runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings, easily his worst and shortest outing of the year.
Jurrjens is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in six home starts this year (all Atlanta wins) and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his lone career start against Florida ? a 4-0 road loss in April in which he gave up two runs on four hits in six innings.
With Nolasco throwing, the over for Florida is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 in division play and 12-4-1 with the starter going on four days? rest. On the flip side, the under is 8-4 in Jurrjens? 12 starts this year (3-3 at home).
The over for the Marlins is on runs of 20-7-3 overall, 11-1-3 on the road, 62-26-9 in divisional play and 24-9-3 in Game 4 of a series, though the under is 6-1 in the team?s last seven on Thursday. For Atlanta, the under trends include 36-16-3 overall, 7-4-1 in division play and 4-0 on Thursday, but the over is 6-1-1 in its last eight against winning teams, 5-1-1 in its last seven at Turner and 36-16-5 in the last 52 when playing the fourth game of a series.
Finally, the over is 3-0-1 in the last four series meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (35-24) at Boston (37-25)
The Red Sox look to extend a 12-game home winning streak ? and put the finishing touches on another three-game Fenway Park sweep of the Rays ? when they send southpaw Jon Lester (3-3, 3.67) to the mound opposite Tampa Bay?s James Shields (4-3, 3.24 ERA).
Behind a strong outing from ace Josh Beckett, Boston rolled to a 5-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday night for their 12th consecutive home victory. The Red Sox continue to sport the best home mark in the majors at 23-5, including 5-0 against the Rays. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses, and while the Rays are 18-8 in their last 26 games, they?re now 11-14 on the road this season and 43-99 in their last 142 games as a visitor dating to 2006.
The home team in this American League East rivalry is now 8-0 this year, with Boston winning the last five meetings after Tampa took the first three. The Red Sox have completely dominated this rivalry over the years, winning 97 of the last 140 clashes and going an astounding 44-9 in the last 53 head-to-head battles at Fenway Park, including 7-0 in the last seven in Beantown.
Shields hasn?t earned a win since May 9, going 0-1 with no-decisions in his last three starts, but the Rays won all three of those games and are 6-2 in his last eight trips to the mound. On Friday against Chicago, he threw a solid six innings, yielding one run (a solo homer) on seven hits in Tampa?s 2-1 home victory. That was Shields? shortest outing of his last five starts, in which he has a complete-game shutout, an eight-inning effort and two starts of seven-plus innings.
Shields is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five road starts this season, and he?s 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA in six career starts against Boston, with the win coming in a dominant complete game in April. In that contest, Shields allowed just two hits and a walk, with seven strikeouts, as Tampa won 3-0 at home. However, six days later at Boston, he got blitzed for seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings as the Rays lost, 12-4. He?s 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in two career starts at Fenway.
Lester settled for his seventh no-decision in his most recent start on Saturday, a game Boston won 6-3 at Baltimore. Lester gave up all three runs on seven hits in five innings in that start. Including his first career no-hitter, Lester has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, but he?s lasted at least six innings just four times during this stretch.
Lester?s no-hitter came in a 7-0 rout of the Royals in his most recent home start, as the lefty improved to 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six outings at Fenway. He?s also 2-0 with a 4.71 ERA in five career starts against Tampa, including a 7-3 Boston victory at home last month in which he allowed one run on four hits in six innings.
The Rays are just 2-10 in Shields? last 12 road starts against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five Thursday starts. On the positive side, Tampa is on streaks of 6-1 on Thursday, 4-2 in division games, 8-4 overall and 21-9 in the third game of a series.
The Red Sox are on a 41-12 tear at Fenway dating to 2007, and they?re 23-6 in their last 29 on Thursday and 40-17 in their last 56 at home against teams with a losing road record. Also, with Lester taking the ball, Terry Francona?s club is on runs of 18-8 overall, 8-2 at home, 6-1 in Game 3 of a series, 9-2 inside the division and 9-2 when he pitches on four days? rest.
The over is 5-0 in Shields? last five Thursday starts. However, with Lester starting, the under is on runs of 12-5-2 overall, 5-1 at Fenway and 5-1-2 in division games.
The under streaks for the Rays including 6-1 overall, 6-1 against southpaw starters, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on Thursdays and 16-6-1 in the third game of series. But the over is 9-4-1 in Tampa Bay?s last 14 roadies. Meanwhile, Boston is riding ?over? trends of 6-2-3 against the A.L. East, 4-2 at home against teams with a losing road record and 12-4 in Game 3 of a series.
Finally, the over is on a 4-1 in the last five series meetings between these clubs (all in Boston), with the lone under coming in last night?s contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
