- Apr 7, 2008
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Stu Feiner Overnight Report, 7/10/2008
American League
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Love the Tigers here tonight at this price. Just look what the Tigers are capable of. Last night Detroit was down 6-0. In just two quick innings they were able to put together hit after hit and actually even up the score. Matt Joyce tied the game up for them in the seventh inning. The Tigers just find a way with their line-up. Don?t look at their overall record, look at what they have done for a month plus. They have been playing almost .600 baseball.
Kevin Slowey is just .500 on the road. We recognize that Kevin has been solid for the Twins but he is as over-rated as they come. In his last start he went six innings and allowed five hits and five runs to go along with a home-run and two walks. Crafty Kenny Rogers has been able to get the job done. He hasn?t allowed more than five runs in nine starts. Even better than that his ERA has steadily declined in his last eight starts. He has allowed three or less runs six times in those eight starts. When he goes out there the Tigers win. Kenny is above .500 at home and he knows how to pitch.
The Tigers will take advantage of an over-aggressive Minnesota Twins team. They were just blitzed against the Red Sox. It takes a few games to get over a game in which you allow 18 runs and over 20 hits.
Detroit Tigers (-)
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
You wouldn?t know it by his record but Greg Smith has been one of the better pitchers in the American League. Greg has made seventeen starts on the season. Greg?s only problem has been the fact he has walked too many batters. It has forced him to come out of too many games too early. Just looking at some of his starts, it is scary how few hits he has let up. In his last fourteen innings he has allowed just nine hits.
We know many people don?t want to believe in the Athletics but it is time. They have a way of just winning and competiting in every game. They don?t have a great offense, but they have a top level bull-pen and they get good pitching. Every pitcher has to step up a little more now that Rich Harden is gone.
R.A. Dickey is a converted knuckle-baller and a guy that you can?t have much faith in. He is just 2-4 on the season and he allows more than a hit per inning and has just 35 strikeouts to go along with his 22 walks. Against a team that knows how to win at home he isn?t going to cut it. Dickey doesn?t go deep in to games and the Mariners are still one of the worst teams in all of a baseball.
Oakland Athletics (-)
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Don?t get fooled in this game. Don?t go out there and just look at a few numbers and pick the Rays. If you do that you are going to lose. The Rays are not the same team on the road as they are on at home. You can?t avoid those facts. You can?t avoid the fact that they are fantastic at home and less than average at home.
The Rays are coming off of three straight losses. Is there any surprise that two of those three losses have come on the road? Tampa played a Yankees team that is just average so far this season and didn?t even have a shot. Sure they went to extra innings yesterday but they scored one run. They got one solo home-run from their clean-up hitter and didn?t do anything else. They are now two games under .500 on the road.
The Indians on the other hand are struggling all together, but does that mean they aren?t capable of winning ball games? Not at all. They still have a very respectable mark at home. In fact at home they are right around the .500 mark.
Aaron Laffey is a more than capable starting pitcher. Don?t look at his 4-5 record, look at the fact that he has an ERA top 12 in the American League. Laffey has allowed less than a hit per inning and is now the Indians number two starter. There is a reason why this guy is a top level prospect. It hasn?t taken him too long to get accustom to the Major leagues. The Indians still have a few guys that can get the job done.
Cleveland Indians (-)
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a big lead and almost blew it, but the key word is almost. The Blue Jays held on for the win. With all their problems and all their ups and downs the Blue Jays are just three games from the .500 mark. The Blue Jays normally have an issue putting runs on the board. That wasn?t the case last night though.
The Blue Jays pounded out twelve hits last night. Their top four hitters had a combined eight this. That is what we call table-setting. Eckstein two hits, one run, two RBI. Scutaro two hits, one run, two walks. Rios two hits, one run, two RBI. Wells two hits, two runs and an RBI. The Blue Jays have talent and the Blue Jays have players that can stroke it.
While the Jays bats have come around, they may not have to do much here tonight. Roy Halladay goes for the Jays. Roy is arguably the best pitcher in the American League. He averages almost eight innings a start! He has an ERA under three and he is four games over .500. There isn?t much this guy can?t do. We love him and the Jays at home tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays (-)
LA Angels at Texas Rangers
John Lackey has been on another level so far this season. This guy hasn?t been good, this guy has been fantastic. John does something that many pitchers don?t do and that is winning on the road. You would be happy if your starting pitcher has a .500 mark and an ERA of 4.50 or so, on the road. You would take that from almost every one of your starters. Well Lackey blows those numbers out of the water.
Lackey is 4-1 on the road. Not only is John 4-1 on the road but he has an ERA of 1.40! He has thrown 38 road innings and allowed a total of seven runs and just six earned runs. Those numbers are almost unfathomable. John has almost a 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio both on the road and for the season. The Angels don?t mind playing on the road. In fact they have the best road record in all of baseball. You don?t get that mark by being a soft baseball team. This guy and this team is a winning proposition on the road. Remember that good pitching shuts down good hitting.
LA Angels (-)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
These two rivals have been playing some crazy games. Tonight we like the Royals to take care of business. A great pitching match-up tonight in Kansas City. Mark Buehrle has been very solid for the White Sox. His record isn?t great so far this season but his numbers are. He is just 6-7 on the season but he has thrown 117 innings and he has an ERA under 4.00.
Zack Greinke has been special though so far this season. He is another pitcher that is under-rated. This guy has a ton of talent and he is putting it together. Zack has the best record on a team that is ten games under .500. You may not think 7-5 is all that special but for the Royals it really is. 117 innings as well for Zack and just 114 hits allowed. When you watch this guy you will think of a young John Smoltz. He features a 95 mph fastball and a devastating second pitch. Look for the Royals behind their ace to get the job done here on get away day.
Kansas City Royals (-)
National League
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Very even game here tonight folks. We have two teams that have similar records and similar talent and we also have two very even pitchers. There is one glaring difference though and that is the bull-pen. It is not as if the Cardinals have a bad bull-pen it is the fact they are overly taxed. Last night Mark Mulder was out of the game after just 16 pitches. It is a shame but Mulder has not been able to recover from his surgery. It looks as if his career may be over.
St. Louis had to turn to multiple arms for multiple innings last night. Even though the Phillies didn?t explode they still had to work hard against a top notch line-up. We know Philadelphia hasn?t been consistent. They still are a team that can put up double-digit runs at any-time.
Jamie Moyer goes tonight for the Phillies and he has been a god-send for Philadelphia. It isn?t just the fact that he has seven wins, it is the fact that he actually works deep in to ball games. He has made eighteen starts this season and has already logged 107 innings. Jamie has been pitching in to some bad luck his last few starts. Look for the home team to get the job done. The line isn?t too high and it is worth jumping on.
Philadelphia Phillies (-)
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
We hope you don?t make a crucial mistake here tonight. We hope that you don?t think Barry Zito is back or Barry is a pitcher worth taking a gamble on. Sure has put together a few decent starts, but come on? It is going to take a lot more than a hot few weeks. Just a few starts ago Barry couldn?t get out of the third inning. He ended up throwing just two innings and allowing five hits, five runs with four walks. This guy is just a disaster waiting to happen.
There is no pitcher in baseball that puts more base-runners on. Even when he allows a few less hits, he still walks batters almost every other inning. For the season Barry has accumulated 12 losses. Barry is just four and twelve on the season and he sports an ERA near 6.00 (5.73 to be exact). In 92 innings he has walked 54 batters and has allowed a staggering 111 hits. Barry has been struggling for a few years? folks.
The Mets are playing their best ball all-season right now folks. They took care of the Phillies winning three straight and then they went on to beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants. Zito won?t be able to hold down this offense.
New York Mets (-)
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are making their run folks. They just made a big trade and they are coming for not only the division crown but the National League pennant. Everyone speaks about hitting being contagious but so is pitching. You better believe that it is the same with starting pitchers. Milwaukee got a solid start from Sabathia and then Sheets took it to another level.
David Bush has been on his best streak all season. David hasn?t been pitching well just for a start or two, his last five starts have all been real solid. He has four quality starts out of five and is beginning to limit the home-runs that burned him earlier in the season. David hasn?t given a home run up since June 7, 2008 and that was in Colorado. Look for the Brewers to become the team they are looking to be. They have to get good starts time in and time out for that to happen and it will.
Milwaukee Brewers (-)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
How can you not like the Cubs tonight? We have them in their ball park, we have them with one of their pitchers and we have them playing solid baseball. Ted Lilly goes tonight for the Cubs. Ted has been fantastic all-season. Not only is he 9-5 but the Cubs have won 12 of his nineteen starts. Don?t sneeze at 63% folks.
Ted like most pitchers has been his best at home. He is 5-2 at home on the season. Ted has really been locked in for a long while right now. Since the final week of May Ted has gone out there and pitched himself deep in to ball games. Six of his last seven starts are of the quality fashion. His worst start was a game he won and in that game he went seven innings and allowed just four runs. His last two starts were on the road. Ted will have no problem pitching deep in to this game. The Reds have a tough time against left-handed starters. Take the Cubs they still have the magic at Wrigley.
Chicago Cubs (-)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Love the Diamondbacks to bounce back here tonight in Washington. The main reason is because of the pitcher they send to the hill. Danny Haren has been the Diamondbacks best pitcher. We know that Brandon Webb is starting the all-star game, but we don?t care.
Danny hasn?t been of these guys that have feasted in their home ball park. Sure he has been great at home, but on the road this guy has an ERA of 3.35. In fifty one road innings he has allowed just nine walks and five home-runs. Those are staggering numbers folks. Overall for the season Haren has a mark of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.83. Danny just doesn?t beat himself. Haren is one of the rarest types of power pitchers. He throws 92 plus MPH but he has impeccable control. Just 20 walks all season. A full five to one strikeout to walk ratio.
The Nationals are one of the worst offenses in the league. They also struggle in their own ball-park. We know that Arizona has struggled for a long time but that is due to their number three, four and five starting pitchers. When Webb and Haren go to the hill and you get a fair price, you make sure to get on that game. We?d be surprised to see him let him more than a run.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Florida Marlins at LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are having a tough time putting together a streak. We know that they are under .500 and we know they have been up and down all-season. That doesn?t mean we have given up home. We have said this time and time again but we really feel the Dodgers have the best chance of winning the National League West. They still do have a winning mark at home.
The Marlins on the other hand are coming off a grueling series against the Padres. They also send a starter to the mound for the first time in the 2008 season. Josh Johnson makes his long awaited return. Josh pitched a total of 15 innings in the 2007 season. Josh was very good in 2006 we know that, but we aren?t at the point we can trust him. In 2007 we know he had some arm problems but he did go 0-3 and have an ERA over 7.00. If nothing else it shows us that he has a tough time battling.
The Marlins bull-pen has been over-worked all week. They will have to be in the bull-pen early in this game. Even if Josh pitches well he doesn?t have a prayer of pitching past the fifth inning. Look for the Dodgers to win the way they always do. They will keep the number low and they will come up with a few hits in the later innings.
LA Dodgers (-)
American League
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Love the Tigers here tonight at this price. Just look what the Tigers are capable of. Last night Detroit was down 6-0. In just two quick innings they were able to put together hit after hit and actually even up the score. Matt Joyce tied the game up for them in the seventh inning. The Tigers just find a way with their line-up. Don?t look at their overall record, look at what they have done for a month plus. They have been playing almost .600 baseball.
Kevin Slowey is just .500 on the road. We recognize that Kevin has been solid for the Twins but he is as over-rated as they come. In his last start he went six innings and allowed five hits and five runs to go along with a home-run and two walks. Crafty Kenny Rogers has been able to get the job done. He hasn?t allowed more than five runs in nine starts. Even better than that his ERA has steadily declined in his last eight starts. He has allowed three or less runs six times in those eight starts. When he goes out there the Tigers win. Kenny is above .500 at home and he knows how to pitch.
The Tigers will take advantage of an over-aggressive Minnesota Twins team. They were just blitzed against the Red Sox. It takes a few games to get over a game in which you allow 18 runs and over 20 hits.
Detroit Tigers (-)
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
You wouldn?t know it by his record but Greg Smith has been one of the better pitchers in the American League. Greg has made seventeen starts on the season. Greg?s only problem has been the fact he has walked too many batters. It has forced him to come out of too many games too early. Just looking at some of his starts, it is scary how few hits he has let up. In his last fourteen innings he has allowed just nine hits.
We know many people don?t want to believe in the Athletics but it is time. They have a way of just winning and competiting in every game. They don?t have a great offense, but they have a top level bull-pen and they get good pitching. Every pitcher has to step up a little more now that Rich Harden is gone.
R.A. Dickey is a converted knuckle-baller and a guy that you can?t have much faith in. He is just 2-4 on the season and he allows more than a hit per inning and has just 35 strikeouts to go along with his 22 walks. Against a team that knows how to win at home he isn?t going to cut it. Dickey doesn?t go deep in to games and the Mariners are still one of the worst teams in all of a baseball.
Oakland Athletics (-)
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Don?t get fooled in this game. Don?t go out there and just look at a few numbers and pick the Rays. If you do that you are going to lose. The Rays are not the same team on the road as they are on at home. You can?t avoid those facts. You can?t avoid the fact that they are fantastic at home and less than average at home.
The Rays are coming off of three straight losses. Is there any surprise that two of those three losses have come on the road? Tampa played a Yankees team that is just average so far this season and didn?t even have a shot. Sure they went to extra innings yesterday but they scored one run. They got one solo home-run from their clean-up hitter and didn?t do anything else. They are now two games under .500 on the road.
The Indians on the other hand are struggling all together, but does that mean they aren?t capable of winning ball games? Not at all. They still have a very respectable mark at home. In fact at home they are right around the .500 mark.
Aaron Laffey is a more than capable starting pitcher. Don?t look at his 4-5 record, look at the fact that he has an ERA top 12 in the American League. Laffey has allowed less than a hit per inning and is now the Indians number two starter. There is a reason why this guy is a top level prospect. It hasn?t taken him too long to get accustom to the Major leagues. The Indians still have a few guys that can get the job done.
Cleveland Indians (-)
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a big lead and almost blew it, but the key word is almost. The Blue Jays held on for the win. With all their problems and all their ups and downs the Blue Jays are just three games from the .500 mark. The Blue Jays normally have an issue putting runs on the board. That wasn?t the case last night though.
The Blue Jays pounded out twelve hits last night. Their top four hitters had a combined eight this. That is what we call table-setting. Eckstein two hits, one run, two RBI. Scutaro two hits, one run, two walks. Rios two hits, one run, two RBI. Wells two hits, two runs and an RBI. The Blue Jays have talent and the Blue Jays have players that can stroke it.
While the Jays bats have come around, they may not have to do much here tonight. Roy Halladay goes for the Jays. Roy is arguably the best pitcher in the American League. He averages almost eight innings a start! He has an ERA under three and he is four games over .500. There isn?t much this guy can?t do. We love him and the Jays at home tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays (-)
LA Angels at Texas Rangers
John Lackey has been on another level so far this season. This guy hasn?t been good, this guy has been fantastic. John does something that many pitchers don?t do and that is winning on the road. You would be happy if your starting pitcher has a .500 mark and an ERA of 4.50 or so, on the road. You would take that from almost every one of your starters. Well Lackey blows those numbers out of the water.
Lackey is 4-1 on the road. Not only is John 4-1 on the road but he has an ERA of 1.40! He has thrown 38 road innings and allowed a total of seven runs and just six earned runs. Those numbers are almost unfathomable. John has almost a 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio both on the road and for the season. The Angels don?t mind playing on the road. In fact they have the best road record in all of baseball. You don?t get that mark by being a soft baseball team. This guy and this team is a winning proposition on the road. Remember that good pitching shuts down good hitting.
LA Angels (-)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
These two rivals have been playing some crazy games. Tonight we like the Royals to take care of business. A great pitching match-up tonight in Kansas City. Mark Buehrle has been very solid for the White Sox. His record isn?t great so far this season but his numbers are. He is just 6-7 on the season but he has thrown 117 innings and he has an ERA under 4.00.
Zack Greinke has been special though so far this season. He is another pitcher that is under-rated. This guy has a ton of talent and he is putting it together. Zack has the best record on a team that is ten games under .500. You may not think 7-5 is all that special but for the Royals it really is. 117 innings as well for Zack and just 114 hits allowed. When you watch this guy you will think of a young John Smoltz. He features a 95 mph fastball and a devastating second pitch. Look for the Royals behind their ace to get the job done here on get away day.
Kansas City Royals (-)
National League
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Very even game here tonight folks. We have two teams that have similar records and similar talent and we also have two very even pitchers. There is one glaring difference though and that is the bull-pen. It is not as if the Cardinals have a bad bull-pen it is the fact they are overly taxed. Last night Mark Mulder was out of the game after just 16 pitches. It is a shame but Mulder has not been able to recover from his surgery. It looks as if his career may be over.
St. Louis had to turn to multiple arms for multiple innings last night. Even though the Phillies didn?t explode they still had to work hard against a top notch line-up. We know Philadelphia hasn?t been consistent. They still are a team that can put up double-digit runs at any-time.
Jamie Moyer goes tonight for the Phillies and he has been a god-send for Philadelphia. It isn?t just the fact that he has seven wins, it is the fact that he actually works deep in to ball games. He has made eighteen starts this season and has already logged 107 innings. Jamie has been pitching in to some bad luck his last few starts. Look for the home team to get the job done. The line isn?t too high and it is worth jumping on.
Philadelphia Phillies (-)
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
We hope you don?t make a crucial mistake here tonight. We hope that you don?t think Barry Zito is back or Barry is a pitcher worth taking a gamble on. Sure has put together a few decent starts, but come on? It is going to take a lot more than a hot few weeks. Just a few starts ago Barry couldn?t get out of the third inning. He ended up throwing just two innings and allowing five hits, five runs with four walks. This guy is just a disaster waiting to happen.
There is no pitcher in baseball that puts more base-runners on. Even when he allows a few less hits, he still walks batters almost every other inning. For the season Barry has accumulated 12 losses. Barry is just four and twelve on the season and he sports an ERA near 6.00 (5.73 to be exact). In 92 innings he has walked 54 batters and has allowed a staggering 111 hits. Barry has been struggling for a few years? folks.
The Mets are playing their best ball all-season right now folks. They took care of the Phillies winning three straight and then they went on to beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants. Zito won?t be able to hold down this offense.
New York Mets (-)
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are making their run folks. They just made a big trade and they are coming for not only the division crown but the National League pennant. Everyone speaks about hitting being contagious but so is pitching. You better believe that it is the same with starting pitchers. Milwaukee got a solid start from Sabathia and then Sheets took it to another level.
David Bush has been on his best streak all season. David hasn?t been pitching well just for a start or two, his last five starts have all been real solid. He has four quality starts out of five and is beginning to limit the home-runs that burned him earlier in the season. David hasn?t given a home run up since June 7, 2008 and that was in Colorado. Look for the Brewers to become the team they are looking to be. They have to get good starts time in and time out for that to happen and it will.
Milwaukee Brewers (-)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
How can you not like the Cubs tonight? We have them in their ball park, we have them with one of their pitchers and we have them playing solid baseball. Ted Lilly goes tonight for the Cubs. Ted has been fantastic all-season. Not only is he 9-5 but the Cubs have won 12 of his nineteen starts. Don?t sneeze at 63% folks.
Ted like most pitchers has been his best at home. He is 5-2 at home on the season. Ted has really been locked in for a long while right now. Since the final week of May Ted has gone out there and pitched himself deep in to ball games. Six of his last seven starts are of the quality fashion. His worst start was a game he won and in that game he went seven innings and allowed just four runs. His last two starts were on the road. Ted will have no problem pitching deep in to this game. The Reds have a tough time against left-handed starters. Take the Cubs they still have the magic at Wrigley.
Chicago Cubs (-)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Love the Diamondbacks to bounce back here tonight in Washington. The main reason is because of the pitcher they send to the hill. Danny Haren has been the Diamondbacks best pitcher. We know that Brandon Webb is starting the all-star game, but we don?t care.
Danny hasn?t been of these guys that have feasted in their home ball park. Sure he has been great at home, but on the road this guy has an ERA of 3.35. In fifty one road innings he has allowed just nine walks and five home-runs. Those are staggering numbers folks. Overall for the season Haren has a mark of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.83. Danny just doesn?t beat himself. Haren is one of the rarest types of power pitchers. He throws 92 plus MPH but he has impeccable control. Just 20 walks all season. A full five to one strikeout to walk ratio.
The Nationals are one of the worst offenses in the league. They also struggle in their own ball-park. We know that Arizona has struggled for a long time but that is due to their number three, four and five starting pitchers. When Webb and Haren go to the hill and you get a fair price, you make sure to get on that game. We?d be surprised to see him let him more than a run.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Florida Marlins at LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are having a tough time putting together a streak. We know that they are under .500 and we know they have been up and down all-season. That doesn?t mean we have given up home. We have said this time and time again but we really feel the Dodgers have the best chance of winning the National League West. They still do have a winning mark at home.
The Marlins on the other hand are coming off a grueling series against the Padres. They also send a starter to the mound for the first time in the 2008 season. Josh Johnson makes his long awaited return. Josh pitched a total of 15 innings in the 2007 season. Josh was very good in 2006 we know that, but we aren?t at the point we can trust him. In 2007 we know he had some arm problems but he did go 0-3 and have an ERA over 7.00. If nothing else it shows us that he has a tough time battling.
The Marlins bull-pen has been over-worked all week. They will have to be in the bull-pen early in this game. Even if Josh pitches well he doesn?t have a prayer of pitching past the fifth inning. Look for the Dodgers to win the way they always do. They will keep the number low and they will come up with a few hits in the later innings.
LA Dodgers (-)
