THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Detroit (62-25, 48-38-1 ATS) at (7) Philadelphia (42-45, 45-39-3 ATS)
The Pistons, who have already had this series extended longer than they desired, hope the momentum built in a Game 5 win at home will carry over to the Wachovia Center as they try to put the 76ers away in Game 6.
Detroit ripped Philadelphia 98-81 Tuesday night to easily cover as a 10-point home chalk, the first time in this series that a team won or covered in consecutive games. The Pistons are now 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games, while Philly is a lowly 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine. However, Detroit?s last three losses have come against the 76ers, and likewise, the Sixers? last three wins have come against the Pistons. Finally, the straight-up winner is on a 12-0 ATS tear in each of these team?s last 12 outings.
Detroit is 5-4 SU this season in this rivalry, while Philadelphia is 5-4 ATS. The winner has covered in each of the last eight head-to-head battles, and the favorite is on a 15-7-1 ATS spree in the last 23 clashes. In addition, the road team is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 matchups, and the Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to the Wachovia, including a 93-84 Game 4 victory laying 5? points.
Despite posting two straight wins, the Pistons have still dropped six of their last nine playoff games and are 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 postseason contests (3-8 ATS in their last 11) and 8-17-1 ATS in their past 26 as a playoff chalk (3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a playoff favorite). Also, going back to the regular season, Detroit is mired in a 5-11 ATS funk as a favorite. However, the team sports positive ATS trends of 5-1 on one day of rest, 6-2 against the Eastern Conference and 17-7-3 in first-round playoff games.
The 76ers are on a 5-14-1 ATS freefall as a playoff underdog and carry further negative ATS trends of 6-13-3 in first-round playoff contests, 2-5 against winning teams, 2-5 at home and 1-5 on one day of rest. On the positive side of the ledger, Philly is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 after a SU loss and 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a double-digit defeat.
The under for Detroit is on runs of 12-5 overall, 8-1 on the highway, 8-2 on one day of rest, 14-4 against the Eastern Conference, 10-3 after a SU win, 8-0 after a SU win of more than 10 points and 17-8 against the Atlantic Division. For Philly, the under is on a 4-0 streak at Wachovia and is 5-0 in its last five after a double-digit loss and 5-2 in its last seven first-round playoff games.
Finally, the under is 3-2 in this playoff series ? Tuesday?s game barely cleared the 178?-point total ? and is 6-3 in the last nine clashes between these two
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MLB
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (13-15) at N.Y. Yankees (14-15)
The Tigers go for their first three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium in 42 years when they send Nate Robertson (0-3, 6.91 ERA) to the mound opposite struggling New York rookie Ian Kennedy (0-2, 8.53).
Detroit, which entered this series in a 6-21 funk at Yankee Stadium, has taken the first two games by scores of 6-4 and 6-2. The Tigers, who started the season with seven consecutive losses, have won seven of their last nine games, including three straight road wins.
New York, which is missing several key components from its lineup, has dropped five of its last seven, including three in a row in the Bronx. In fact, the Yankees have dipped below .500 at home at 5-6 after finishing last season on a 41-16 romp in New York.
Although the Yankees are still 21-8 in their last 29 home games against Detroit, the Tigers have won four in a row in this rivalry going back to last season. However, Jim Leyland?s club hasn?t swept a three-game series in the Bronx since April 1966.
Robertson has been struggling all season, giving up either four or five runs in all five of his starts, with Detroit losing four of those contests, including Friday?s 4-3 home setback to the Angels. In that contest, the southpaw yielded all four runs on six hits despite pitching a season-high seven innings. Going back to last September, the Tigers are 2-6 in Robertson?s last eight trips to the hill.
Robertson is 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA in two road starts this year. Also, Detroit is 0-5 in Robertson?s last five starts against the Yankees, and he?s 1-5 with a 4.86 ERA in seven career outings against New York, including 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA in five games at Yankee Stadium, with Detroit losing all five contests.
Kennedy, who is making his first career start against the Tigers tonight, gave up three runs on four hits in five innings on Saturday at Cleveland, getting a no-decision in New York?s 4-3 loss. Kennedy has struggled with his control all season, as he has more walks (17) than strikeouts (15).
Kennedy?s lone home start this year was a disaster, as he got tagged for six runs on four hits and four walks in 2 1/3 innings in a 13-4 loss to Tampa Bay back on April 4.
The under is 21-7-1 in Robertson?s last 29 road outings and 5-1 in his last six outings against New York. Also, the under is on runs of 6-2-3 for Detroit overall, 4-0-1 for Detroit on the road, 5-0-1 for the Yankees overall, 7-3-1 at Yankee Stadium this year and 16-5-1 for New York as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Toronto (11-18) at Boston (18-12)
After beating the Blue Jays each of the last two nights in their final at-bat, the Red Sox look to complete the sweep tonight as veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (2-0, 4.06) opposes Toronto?s A.J. Burnett (2-2, 6.07).
Boston got a run in the bottom of the ninth inning to pull out a 1-0 win Tuesday, then turned the trick again on Wednesday in a 2-1 victory. The two wins come on the heels of a five-game losing skid for the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Toronto has now dropped eight of its last nine to fall ? including seven of eight on the road ? into last place in the A.L. East.
Prior to Boston winning the first two games of this series, the Blue Jays had won seven straight meetings. Also, the home team is 8-0 in the last eight head-to-head clashes after the visitor went 9-4 in the previous 13.
Wakefield has been idle since Friday, when he gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits and five walks in six innings at Tampa Bay, getting a no-decision in Boston?s 5-4 loss. In two starts at Fenway this year, he?s 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA.
Wakefield pitched in Toronto on April 4, yielding three runs on six hits and three walks over six innings of a 6-3 loss. He?s now 15-10 with a 3.87 ERA in 46 career appearances (36 starts) versus the Blue Jays, but Boston has won four of his last five home starts against Toronto.
Since opening the season with a gem in a 5-2 win at Yankee Stadium on April 2, Burnett has been a mess, giving up 18 runs (16 earned) on 29 hits and 13 walks in four starts spanning 22 2/3 innings (7.15 ERA), though Toronto has managed to split the four contests. On the road this year, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA.
Since coming over to Toronto from Florida prior to the 2006 season, Burnett has made four starts against the Red Sox, going 3-0 with a sterling 2.51 ERA, with the Jays also winning his one no-decision. In his lone start at Fenway Park back in 2006, Burnett pitched a complete-game three-hitter in a 5-1 victory.
The Red Sox are on streaks of 41-15 on grass, 105-42 against losing teams, 38-16 at home, 21-5 on Thursdays, 15-7 in Wakefield starts overall and 36-17 when Wakefield starts at home. Conversely, the Blue Jays are stuck in slumps of 1-7 against right-handed starters, 0-5 on Thursdays and 0-4 versus A.L. East rivals.
The under is 9-1-2 in Wakefield?s last 12 starts against Toronto, 38-18-5 in his past 61 starts against the A.L. East and 16-7-1 in Burnett?s last 24 outings overall. Furthermore, the under is on lengthy streaks for both teams, including 5-0 for Boston overall, 6-0 for Boston against a right-handed starter, 6-1 for the Blue Jays overall, 6-1 for the Blue Jays on the road and 5-2-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
