thursday stickball

[BleedDodgerBlue]

season: 7-4-1 +6.08 units
yest: 1-3 -4.92 units



two early games:


st. louis -108 x 2. this line is off, and i can't understand it. its about 15 cents too low with lidle out there, but i'm not gonna second guess myself in the first week of season. other good cappers on them as well, so we'll sink or swim together. but take a look at marquis' stats vs. this philly lineup and its pretty dominant. on the flip side, lidle has been hit by the cardinals.

giants -108 x 2. giants the much more rested team. atl takes 2 out of 3 from my beloved dodgers which is no surprise, but they threw a lot of pitches, while s.f. had a day rainout. home opener for giants, worth a shot.

back later with night games.


gl

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL Dodger!! With ya SF today....that line has sure dropped. Opened at -130...now -108.... :shrug: Still think we have the right team today.....

 

[JamesWitt]

I think this is one of those games where the line's explained more by circumstances than anything. StL has taken two, usually the pendulum swings back. Lidle's good through four, but has walked through a minefield, kind of like Bannister last night, who had a no-hitter for a few, but in fact was on the verge of disaster in multiple innings. He'll get rocked in his next couple starts, as will Lidle.

This type of game, especially later in the season where the incentives and emotions are clear as they ever are, I like to bet Phi +2 at -200 or better (line at Pinny started -174, closed at -191), and either leave that alone, or use it to take a shot at the alternative runline, in this case +186.

Way I see it, you've got all the karma working your way. You've got the dopes on Stl because they've just beat Phi twice. You've got trends, the fool's blind faith, telling you to take Stl. But look at what it is, just another game, time for Phi to win. Even if they don't, Stl must beat them by 3 for you to lose all your money.

 

[JamesWitt]

Cards explode top 5, now up 4-2. But again, gotta see what happened. The score is the product, it has no inherent meaning in itself. In this case, the four runs were product of:

1) hit batter awarded first due to ump's failing to call the batter for stepping outside the box in preparing to bunt

2) error

3) a couple of cheap hits by sluggers.

Of these, the first two are rare, but the third happens often for stl, a very good team. The first two are not likely to happen again, but the third is.

 

[JamesWitt]

Should say, I got a dog in this race! I got 1000 to win 520+ on Phi +2.

 

[JamesWitt]

Cards up 4-2 after five. I liked it better when it was Phi 2-0 after four.

 

[JamesWitt]

Also got 200 on SF -1 +147 (Pinny), coattailing Bleed, as I often do.

I do what I call metacapping - capping cappers and supplementing with my own picks where I feel I have a handle on the scene. I'm an emotional/circumstantial type. My belief in trends is that you don't try to break them, they'll break you first. But I don't believe the trend is your friend, either. The trend will lead you right into a brick wall, more often than not.

 

[JamesWitt]

Enough from me, go Phillies! Go SF!

 

[JamesWitt]

I like to push stuff- to sell the extra point. I like to take a Wise pick or a BigKyle pick and sell a point and a half. This way whenever you win you're GETTING vigorish, and when you lose, you're losing straight. And we're only talking one basket in hoops. Have to be more careful about this in baseball, as points are fewer and bigger.

But what I do, if I can get at least another 1/3 return, is take, in this example, SF -1 +147 instead of SF -104. If SF wins by one, I don't lose. I'm more concerned about avoiding losing than winning.

I like talking strategy, and will post my picks when I can, and not hijack threads (sorry Bleed) but usually I don't make a decision until right before game time.

 

[forest29]

Witt WTF. If you need to hear yourself talking that bad man, get you own thread, some of us come here to see what BDB has to say.

:firing:

 

[JamesWitt]

Fkuc off, twerp.

 

[Punter5]

I picked cards. Hard to bet agaisnt them right now.

 

[JamesWitt]

Good call, Bleed. Yes, Stl looks good, P5. They don't hurt themselves. The small breaks go their way. For those who didn't see it, Phi was up 2-0 mid-game. Phi could have come back. Howard swung at ball four at a crucial point. Phi would have had bases loaded with one out. Then again, Stl crushed a number of balls that wound up in gloves. They play in Stl, Lidle's going to get whiplash.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

thanks guys


under the lights:

wash/nym over 8 -110 x 2

col -124 x 2 (is there a worse series in all of baseball now that kc/det is done)

tex -101 x 2

sea -102 x 3. i really like this game. if there ever was a letdown spot for a team, its oakland tonight and meche is a bit of enigma. when hes got it going he's really something, and loiza has had zilch success against the mariners.

gl all

 

[kcwolf]

Glad you like SEA, the only other game I'm going to play. Going to wait it out for maybe? a little better #.

Hope ya get a sweep so you can afford a couple extra cases of pop.

Next snooker round should be another good one.