Thursday totals

[Valuist]

Like I said in Superbook's thread, I'm trying to avoid overs for the most part in the NCAA.

Wyoming/Gonzaga UNDER 147.5
San Diego St/Illinois UNDER 143
Montana/Oregon UNDER 155
Bowling Green/Butler UNDER 131

 

[superbook]

Valuist --

I really respect your capping abilities, just had a couple of stupid questions regarding your methodology for Totals.

1. Do you add a "tournament factor" into your totals at this time of year or just not play Overs?

2. In general, in games that would appear to be very close, do you take OT into consideration?


I'm just trying to learn. Thanks.

- Jon

 

[Valuist]

1. Yes, to some extent. Teams can always pick up their intensity defensively, but they can't will themselves to hit more 3 pointers.
Also, both teams are shooting in unfamiliar settings so that could be enough to affect a few points.

2. If I think its too close to my number, I just don't play it. As for OT, I use medians, never averages. When Gtown/ND scored 225 plus pts, the people who use averages were using flawed numbers. If a team is in games that are 200, 150, 120, 120, 120, 110, the average players will expect a 136.7. That's wrong; I would anticipate a 120. The real high numbers distort the averages to the high side.

 

[superbook]

Very interesting, esp #2 about medians vs averages. I hope you didn't give away any trade secrets.

Thanks.

- Jon

 

[crib_19]

Valuist---as a math teacher I really agree w/ your
"range" of numbers theory...I would assume that you throw out a "low" total just as you would a high total correct?.......I followed you closely
this winter and wanted you to know i appreciated your effort at the #'s......best of luck during march madness..crib

 

[Boneinthehouse]

crib-math!!!!!!

crib-math!!!!!!

boy if you guys only knew how bad crib is with numbers!!!
Just wanted to say thanks to valuist, you've made me some cash!
I always wait to my totals till I see what you think. GL BONE

 

[Valuist]

Absolutely, the unusually low numbers get thrown out. I also don't play any totals until mid- January because I don't trust the results of the November games.

 

[Valuist]

Adding one over:

Kansas/Holy Cross OVER 146.5

This is Kansas' lowest total of the year. Only one team kept them under 75 all season and putting up 90 is no problem. Against their weakest non-conf foes, they did give up some pts: North Dakota scored 77, SC State 73 and Mizzou KC put up 68 on them. Holy Cross was able to put up 68 in last years tourney vs Kentucky.