Thursday

[kcwolf]

NFL: 99-67 +108.3 units

KC +3 6 units

Be back tomorrow, early, with some reasons. Just quit faactoring in the weather. Weather will be no issue tomorrow.

Road teams on a short weak will be my start tomorrow. Yes, I'm a Chiefs fan, but listen up tommorrow,

Tired, too much travel lately.

gl!

kcwolf

 

[nyraider]

totally agree, like KC!

K.C. AND UNDER? ;
GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND?

 

[kcwolf]

As I've mentioned before, not much of a cut and paste type of guy. I prefer writing off the top of my head with some notes in front of me.

Please bear with, as I'll probably forget something.

Some of these stats have been mentioned several times already, but they bear repeating.

PHI is ranked #1 against the pass in 2001.
PHI is 6-3-1 ATS
PHI is 6-3-1 under
PHI is 4-0, 4-0 ATS road this year and 7 straight over last 2 seasons.

KC 1-4 home in 2001, 2-3 or 1-3-1 ATS at home, depending on your line.
KC 4-0 under, L4 as I remember.
KC Trent Green is the 2nd lowest rated QB in the league.

Been accused of being a little crazy, but one might conclude the wolf has gone off the deep end here. Besides, he's a Chief fan, so laugh him off the discusion forum, now!

Writing today to give you another side to consider.

Two key points followed by a lot of rambling.

My first point concerns Thursday night games and the Chiefs record.

Ladies and gents, I don't have all the backup information, but I'm always leery of playing a road favorite on Thursday night. We have the short practice week and the travel time.

Vermeil is 0-2 against his former team, but place no weight on this stat.

Chiefs have only lost one Thursday night game, last time out, this year, against the Colts. Throw that stat in the circular file also.

The most important stat relates to my final point, the most important point. An indirect point.

KC L6 games have allowed no first quarter points. Chiefs lost 4 of those games.

Final point:

DON'T make a play tonight based on the entire season of both teams! KC is a whole different team right now.

Expect PHI to show up big time, tonight, after the lackluster, pitiful performance last week against the Skins. But you need to know a little bit about the Chiefs. They have changed, and for good reason.

It evolves around the recieving corp for the Chiefs. No Sylvester Morris, no Derrick Alexander, no Snoop Minnis for most of the season. Gee, no wonder Trent Green is such a low rated QB.

That also reflects on the KC defense. When the Chiefs were so one dimensional - running game - Trent tried to save the day throwing to one reciever, Tony Gonzalez. It led to many, many turnovers. It also left a very decent defense on the field way too long. Hence, the 4 losses after the defense gave the offense a shutout in 6 first quarters. The defense was playing 45 minutes!

Well, Derrick Alexander is back and healthy. Looked great last Sunday. Snoop may also play tonight. Changes this team like you would not believe. Now a solid two dimensional offense that keeps an underrated defense off the field.

Speaking of underrated, the Chiefs linebacker corp our top ten in the league.

Couple of more stats on the Chiefs last game, having Alexander back:

Offense: over 400 yds
Defense: allowed only 200 yds

Sorry for the long thread, but need to emphasize:

1) Chiefs are now a different team
2) Home field, short week
3) Prime time, last chance for the Chiefs to play under the limelight this year - mini Super Bowl?
4) Expect the Chiefs to have a similar game plan to last week - deep passes in the first quarter, setting up a solid running game for Holmes and Richardson.

gl tonight!

kcwolf

ps: TIP! I pick my nose better than picking NBA games this year. Continue to fade those picks, and win a fortune!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Excellent post. All week I've wondered why anyone would want KC and why the line is so low and now I know why. Still going the other way, but thanks for the info.

 

[Cobra]

Bobby Taylor will eat Snoop Minnis for lunch and Troy Vincent will shut down Alexander.
Bottom line Trent Green might move the ball but I GUARANTEE he doesen't in the red ZONE. This guy is perhaps the biggest JOKE in the red zone I have ever seen. He has tunnel vision and has eyes for one receiver. The chiefs are a JOKE, and anybody who wants to throw their money away on them go ahead.

 

[phoenix566]

KC,

I was leaning to the chiefs and played them in my pool plus 3.5. I was gonna pass on tonights game (like that is poosible when it is a prime timer

) but your analysis as well as the well laid out counter analysis has driven me to throw down a medium sized play on da chiefs.

good luck to us (as well as all other backers of such pathetic 'dogs')

phx


---------------------------------------

"If you can't find a reason to play the dog, pass."

 

[kcwolf]

Cobra,

Thanks for the reply, you are probably right.

Was just trying to share my information. That's what this forum is all about.

Good luck today and in the future.

kcwolf

 

[Riviman]

Not looking to start a argument at all, but I think last weeks game cannot change the look of this K.C. team. They always bury the Seahawks at home. As far as the offense and defense goes, Seatlle averages about 13 points a game on the road and the defense gives up about 23 a game, KC beat a very suspect road team last week . Philly has played what I feel are the 2 best teams in the league this year(Rams and Raiders) and both games got away from them in the end, I think the importence of this game in the playoff scheme is worth more to the Philly side then a last chance primetime showing for a poor Chief team. I don't think Thursday night Football has anywhere near the Primetime feel of a Monday Night Game, not that I even feel that matters to either side here. K.C.'s homefeild advantage(and defense) has not been the same since the tradgic loss of Derrick Thomas. Philly is 4-0 on the road this year winning by an average of 18 points to similar competition.. Just a alternate opinion. Good Luck.

 

[Anders]

Cobra -

even if you managed to somehow gather all the class, skills, mind and personality KC possesses in abundance - don't see it happening personally

- , I still wouldn't let you come in here and post as you did.

Show some decency

I think KC's response pretty much summed up the difference

------------------
I want you to know that this will go down on your permanent record!
Oh yeah?
Well don't get so distressed.
Did I happen to mention that I'm impressed?

 

[kcwolf]

Good points Riviman.

That's what this forum is about. I may very well be to biased on this game, and will admit it.

Appreciate all point of views, and thanks for replying!

No need to fight on this forum, respect all you guys and gals opinions.

We are all here to learn and play better tomorrow.

gl Riviman!

kcwolf

 

[Riviman]

I'm glad my comments were not taken the wrong way, I just have taken a different angle on the game. One important stat I had forgot to mention, besides the opening MNF game between the Giants and Broncs, and the Thurs. night game between the Cheifs and Colts I have had every(no exageration)losing side in every other primetime game. Now there's an impressive stat to ponder.

 

[Dizzayton]

KC Wolf
You're in a classic situation in which your team is coming off a big win, your feeling like they're getting some momentum going, they're underdogs, they're playing on Thurs night on ESPN, and you want to bet on them because there is no way you would bet against them. I know how it is, i'm a bills fan and I do the same thing everytime
Hate to say it, but these types of best usually lose. I'll fade your play.
Nice NFL recored though!!

 

[theGibber1]

whats up wolf got some extra time on your hands today, just wondering cause you normally dont post till about 2 minutes till kickoff...
ha

anyway, i think your analysis for tonights game is right on the money. im with you on this one, also like the over, expecting both teams to come out shooting tonight..

good luck friend

 

[phoenix566]

KC,

75% of the 'world' is against us (at least a well known concensus site).

Might as well send your check to the man now....

 

[Billy]

Well put Anders...
KC, your demeanor continues to impress me,
thanks for your input...!

 

[kcwolf]

Thanks for the support - Anders, Billy, and the rest.

Also appreciate the other side, thanks.

Phoenix

75%! Just mailed my loser check to the man, also decided to write one more check:

PHI ov 36.5 2 units

gl!

kcwolf

 

[pepin46]

kc

i think what we have here is a line that reflects both the reality of philly's loss last week as perceive by many, and an adjustment to the personnel changes you talk about.

apparently you put a lot of weight on those changes, while some of us put more weight on kc's record and philly being up against a wall, in dire need of a victory.

the fact that there are strong opinions on both sides indicates to me that it will be a hard fought game, although i must lean to philly. i threw the under as well, but we know anything can happen with totals.

for me, it is a small fun bet, and i hope at least we get to watch a good game.

pep

 

[Antonio]

KC been reading alot of analysis, and everyone seems to be pointing out how horrible Green is under pressure and all there blitz packages there gonna bring and so forth, but there failing to mention philly's 19th ranked rush defense

Nice little system play on this one as well.

Im with ya on this one my man, also liking the OVER, u know as well as myself how we hate taking these damn OVERS, but will wait closer to game time on that TOTAL, maybe ill find a 36 out there

 

[Anders]

pep - one thing I believe is over-rated in terms of 'capping sports is "must win" games.

I've fallen foul to that maxim many times in the past, thinking "there's only one side to play here because they need this one so much more".

Motivation is such an intangible in sports betting but I believe that in most match-ups, both teams are equally determined to make their mark in any contest.

Obviously in this one, the Eagles view it as a key to the playoffs while the Chiefs have long since dismissed any playoff thoughts - if they ever possessed any to begin with.

Has this played any part in how the line has been set? Another intangible I guess

GL tonight - even if I'm on the other side

 

[pepin46]

as long as we made this one tonight's thread:

anders

i should have expanded more, and not present it simply as "they need this game". it goes beyond that; the fact that teams like philly, clev and pitt, with maybe wash in as well, are like microbes, who feed on the offensive blood (weakness) of their opponents. this is the basis of their success.

this is a fact that i/we had to re-learn last year with baltimore, and now are seeing it become more and more prevalent in the nfl. a super defense will beat a super-offense.

we have plenty of such teams this year. it worked for balt and it is working for them. time will tell, but i believe that philly faced the strongest defensive team they have seen in quite a while last week, and in my book, it takes nothing away from philly.

while nobody is expecting a dallas-type laugher, in tonight's game we have a super-defense who faces a not so hot offense. the added kick is being against the wall, overcoming the humilliation, if you will, of last week's loss. the fact that the line is perceive by some of us as "cheap" at 2 1/2 or 3, makes that more appealing.

that is what sets the game up for me. now, if i had to put a number, by priority, of my picks for this week, this game would probably be a #4 or 5.

cheers,


pep