- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 87-61-4 (+24.7)
OU: 52-45-1 (+2.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Kings vs. Mavs
The Kings are coming off a horrible home outing vs. the Grizzlies, where they lost by 32. In this game, they had 14 assists and 14 turnovers.
I realize that Dallas did not cover the spread vs. Utah two games ago, but... I consider that a bad beat game and they probably should have covered, so I am going to use this trend anyway. The bigger point of the trend is that mentally it is tough to play well enough to win two games on the road as a dog, but lose anyway and then turn around and play another road game. This mentality is strengthened by the following trend.
After the Utah game, the paper had this to report:
?But night by night, the fight is being knocked out of Dallas, 100-94 losers and now sharing a 13-22 record that places them alongside Sacramento among the dregs of the West.
?I'm proud of the guys and how we battled,? said Dirk, saying the right thing after a firestorm that had some confused followers mistakenly thinking he wanted out of Dallas. ?Just that little thing down the stretch is missing. That separates the good teams or the great teams from the bad teams.??
Well, now they are losers of 13 or their last 15, and get to go into this game against another ?dreg of the West?.
Since the 2009 season, the Kings are 9-2 SU (+6.0 ppg) as a home favorite when seeking revenge for a 15+ point road loss that happened in the same season. Monday was Tyreke Evans first game back after missing eleven with a sore knee, and hopefully he can be worked into the lineup better tonight. The Mavericks are giving up 104.4 points per game on the road, and averaging 96.2. After two tough road losses, and playing on a back to back, I expect their defense to be sluggish and the Kings to have a nice offensive outing after two poor shooting games. ARCO arena is a tough place to play, and since 1995 the Kings as a home favorite after scoring less than 82 points in their last game are 20-3 SU (+9.9), which highlights their home court advantage.
The things that concern me about this game is that the Mavs have owned the Kings recently, and the line seems a little short. Seems like the Kings should be favored more, but I'm hoping that reflects their recent struggles and the Mavs bigger name.
Heat vs. Blazers
The Heat are struggling right now, but they are still getting lines that favor them. The Heat have been out-rebounded by at least 15 boards in three of the last five games. Portland is not a great rebounding team, but they do average more than 4 offensive rebounds per game than the Heat, and in a game that might be close, these are second chance points that are important. The Heat have no answer for Aldridge, as they lack any kind of defensive big man.
Despite being an average dog of almost 2 in their last 14 games, the Blazers have won 11 of their last 14. As an average favorite of almost 8, the Heat are 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven (with their only cover coming against the Wizards). This line is inflated to match the history and name of the Heat, but they are not playing like world class champions right now. Until they do, I will continue to fade them, especially against a hot team like the Blazers.
Terry Stotts on his team: ?Confidence is one of those things that feeds on itself... Some of it is innate. It's in the character of our players. They have a belief in what they can do and have grown to trust each other in those times and they play together.?
The Blazer's preparedness for games this year is impressive. From what I have read, they seem to be one of the best teams in the league at studying film and getting a handle on their opponent, which is a sign of a great coaching job at this level. The Blazers have won eight straight at home, and they have beat some quality teams in impressive wins recently. I?ll go with the hot team vs. the sluggish one any day, and especially at home in a big TV game, where I am getting points. Everyone wants to beat the Heat, and mentally the Blazers are in a better spot tonight than their opponent.
Blazers x2
Kings
Good luck...
OU: 52-45-1 (+2.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Kings vs. Mavs
The Kings are coming off a horrible home outing vs. the Grizzlies, where they lost by 32. In this game, they had 14 assists and 14 turnovers.
I realize that Dallas did not cover the spread vs. Utah two games ago, but... I consider that a bad beat game and they probably should have covered, so I am going to use this trend anyway. The bigger point of the trend is that mentally it is tough to play well enough to win two games on the road as a dog, but lose anyway and then turn around and play another road game. This mentality is strengthened by the following trend.
After the Utah game, the paper had this to report:
?But night by night, the fight is being knocked out of Dallas, 100-94 losers and now sharing a 13-22 record that places them alongside Sacramento among the dregs of the West.
?I'm proud of the guys and how we battled,? said Dirk, saying the right thing after a firestorm that had some confused followers mistakenly thinking he wanted out of Dallas. ?Just that little thing down the stretch is missing. That separates the good teams or the great teams from the bad teams.??
Well, now they are losers of 13 or their last 15, and get to go into this game against another ?dreg of the West?.
Since the 2009 season, the Kings are 9-2 SU (+6.0 ppg) as a home favorite when seeking revenge for a 15+ point road loss that happened in the same season. Monday was Tyreke Evans first game back after missing eleven with a sore knee, and hopefully he can be worked into the lineup better tonight. The Mavericks are giving up 104.4 points per game on the road, and averaging 96.2. After two tough road losses, and playing on a back to back, I expect their defense to be sluggish and the Kings to have a nice offensive outing after two poor shooting games. ARCO arena is a tough place to play, and since 1995 the Kings as a home favorite after scoring less than 82 points in their last game are 20-3 SU (+9.9), which highlights their home court advantage.
The things that concern me about this game is that the Mavs have owned the Kings recently, and the line seems a little short. Seems like the Kings should be favored more, but I'm hoping that reflects their recent struggles and the Mavs bigger name.
Heat vs. Blazers
The Heat are struggling right now, but they are still getting lines that favor them. The Heat have been out-rebounded by at least 15 boards in three of the last five games. Portland is not a great rebounding team, but they do average more than 4 offensive rebounds per game than the Heat, and in a game that might be close, these are second chance points that are important. The Heat have no answer for Aldridge, as they lack any kind of defensive big man.
Despite being an average dog of almost 2 in their last 14 games, the Blazers have won 11 of their last 14. As an average favorite of almost 8, the Heat are 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven (with their only cover coming against the Wizards). This line is inflated to match the history and name of the Heat, but they are not playing like world class champions right now. Until they do, I will continue to fade them, especially against a hot team like the Blazers.
Terry Stotts on his team: ?Confidence is one of those things that feeds on itself... Some of it is innate. It's in the character of our players. They have a belief in what they can do and have grown to trust each other in those times and they play together.?
The Blazer's preparedness for games this year is impressive. From what I have read, they seem to be one of the best teams in the league at studying film and getting a handle on their opponent, which is a sign of a great coaching job at this level. The Blazers have won eight straight at home, and they have beat some quality teams in impressive wins recently. I?ll go with the hot team vs. the sluggish one any day, and especially at home in a big TV game, where I am getting points. Everyone wants to beat the Heat, and mentally the Blazers are in a better spot tonight than their opponent.
Blazers x2
Kings
Good luck...
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