Thursday

[Happy Hippo]

ATS: 144-108-7 (+40.1)
OU: 72-63-2 (+1.4)
ML dogs: 5-11 (+0.6)


Nuggets

The Clippers will face a tough battle tonight in Denver. The Nuggets bring intensity every night. They are the best rebounding team in the league, and teams without any rest facing rested opponents bring down 3.3% less rebounds this season (doesn?t seem like a huge deal, but in what should be a 190+ possession game, this could be a 6 possession swing). The Nuggets rely heavily on transition points, and this can cause teams to shy off the offensive boards, as they are more worried about getting back on defense. The bigs for the Nuggets have really bothered the Clippers in the past. In the last game, they forced the Clippers into settling for bad shots (20% of their shots came from 16-23 feet, the worst shots available on the floor). Griffin has averaged just 12.3 ppg in his last three against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have dominated opponents in the paint this season, and they have another clear edge tonight, based on season statistics and past performances against the Clippers.

George Karl after their most recent win over the Thunder: ?This team is not afraid to play the best teams. In fact, they like to play the best teams. I think the team is understanding that the playoffs aren?t that far away.? Karl has stressed to his team the importance of home court for them in the playoffs, and this time of year is when playoff teams assert themselves at home.

The Nuggets are averaging 112 points over their last six games. The Nuggets have won eleven straight games at home by an average margin of 11.9, going 9-2 ATS, with a lot of quality wins against playoff teams (Thunder twice, Pacers, Rockets, Bucks, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks, [Lakers]). I expect a lot better effort tonight from the Clippers than their last game in Denver, when they were coming off a huge win streak, but I think that down the stretch the Nuggets will be too much for them to handle. They let teams hang around, and then you blink... and they are gone.

The Nuggets are 20-9 ATS this year at home, and their relentless effort is hard to overcome through four quarters. I won?t even start on the coaching advantage


Nuggets -4 x2


Good luck...

 

[craig31]

Love it and on it as well, feel more confident once I saw you have the nuggs as well

Good luck

 

[Happy Hippo]

Was waiting to see if Melo was going on not...


Thunder

The Thunder get the Knicks in a great spot tonight. The Knicks are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and their fourth in five. Teams playing their fifth in seven on no rest as a home dog coming off a road game are 20-59 SU (-6.1 ppg) and 27-50-2 ATS since the 2005 season.

The Thunder are the sixth ranked defense in the league, which is often overlooked because of their offensive prowess. The Knicks started the year great defensively, but they have lost a lot of their recent swagger. The Knicks are last in the league in points in the paint. They live and die by jump shots (especially threes), and when you are playing four in five, these are the shots that many teams struggle with when their legs are tired. Even last night they were struggling, as their three point sharpshooters off the bench combined for 2-15 from beyond the arc. They basically have a 5 man rotation without Melo (and a couple guys who come in and shoot the ball, but can't do much else).

The Thunder are one of the best road teams this season. They are fourth in the league record wise this year, and second only to the Spurs in margin of victory (average +4.4 ppg). After losing three games, Brooks stressed defensive intensity to his team, and in their last six games they have held opponents to an average of 95.2 points and only 40.8% from the field. Their defensive pressure leads to a lot of turnovers, and they are fifth in the league in fast break points per game. The Knicks have taken care of the ball well overall this season, but have struggled recently. Last night they had 20 turnovers. Teams playing their fourth game in five days as a home dog are 10-37 SU and 14-32 ATS when coming off a road game where they had 15 or more turnovers, since the 2005 season.

Teams playing their fifth game in seven days as a home dog of 6 or more (average line +8.2) are 12-75 SU (-9.3 ppg) and 32-50-5 ATS when they are coming off a road game and their opponent has a better win percentage on the year. The Thunder as a road favorite of 6 or more are 8-2 SU (10.4 ppg) and 7-3 ATS this season. The Thunder are 8-1 SU (+14.4 ppg) since last season when they are facing an opponent that is playing their fourth game in five days.


Thunder -7


Good luck...

 

[yanno]

Was waiting to see if Melo was going on not...


Thunder

The Thunder get the Knicks in a great spot tonight. The Knicks are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and their fourth in five. Teams playing their fifth in seven on no rest as a home dog coming off a road game are 20-59 SU (-6.1 ppg) and 27-50-2 ATS since the 2005 season.

The Thunder are the sixth ranked defense in the league, which is often overlooked because of their offensive prowess. The Knicks started the year great defensively, but they have lost a lot of their recent swagger. The Knicks are last in the league in points in the paint. They live and die by jump shots (especially threes), and when you are playing four in five, these are the shots that many teams struggle with when their legs are tired. Even last night they were struggling, as their three point sharpshooters off the bench combined for 2-15 from beyond the arc. They basically have a 5 man rotation without Melo (and a couple guys who come in and shoot the ball, but can't do much else).

The Thunder are one of the best road teams this season. They are fourth in the league record wise this year, and second only to the Spurs in margin of victory (average +4.4 ppg). After losing three games, Brooks stressed defensive intensity to his team, and in their last six games they have held opponents to an average of 95.2 points and only 40.8% from the field. Their defensive pressure leads to a lot of turnovers, and they are fifth in the league in fast break points per game. The Knicks have taken care of the ball well overall this season, but have struggled recently. Last night they had 20 turnovers. Teams playing their fourth game in five days as a home dog are 10-37 SU and 14-32 ATS when coming off a road game where they had 15 or more turnovers, since the 2005 season.

Teams playing their fifth game in seven days as a home dog of 6 or more (average line +8.2) are 12-75 SU (-9.3 ppg) and 32-50-5 ATS when they are coming off a road game and their opponent has a better win percentage on the year. The Thunder as a road favorite of 6 or more are 8-2 SU (10.4 ppg) and 7-3 ATS this season. The Thunder are 8-1 SU (+14.4 ppg) since last season when they are facing an opponent that is playing their fourth game in five days.


Thunder -7

Q.E.D. :mj07:

 

[grindstone]

Love the Nugs tonight and O214, hope all is well HH

 

[grindstone]

Taking at stab NYK +8

 

[canuckfan77]

Nice call on the nuggets :0008

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks canuck - love that team! They are on such a roll right now. Their depth and style is really hard to overcome in the regular season. We'll see about the playoffs. Karl has never had much success, but of all his teams, this is the one I like the most

Thunder looked great through the first quarter, but Knicks became the aggressor from there on out, and those are the teams that usually win. People comment a lot on how teams blow big leads in the NBA, and I think it is because they become lackadaisical and the other team plays with more urgency. This was certainly the case for three quarters last night, and the Knicks were the right side of that play. I was impressed with their effort. Oh, J.R. Smith, ha! Someone on my twitter feed last night said something like - the difference between when JR Smith has a good game and a horrible one, the shots are going in. He had the worst shot selection and almost every one of them were in isolation, but last night they were dropping, that's for sure!

Cheers