Record: 4-4
Net units: +.7
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Northern Illinois vs. Wake Forest:
Normally, I would be all over the team from the weaker conference especially when Wake Forest is only favored by two. This is one of those games where people like those that Nolan Dalla wrote about will be all over Wake Forest because it looks too good to be true. I mean c'mon, who the hell is Northern Illinois?!?! LOL. . . If I was in Vegas for the weekend and didn't know anything about college football, I would definitely pick Wake Forest in this one because I would assume that Northern Illinois couldn't possibly be any good and since Wake Forest is from the ACC, they must be halfway decent right?!?!
I'm stalling, but still wanted to say that I know if there is smart money on this game, that it will likely fall on Northern Illinois. The square money will likely fall on Wake Forest. So why am I going to go against the perceived smart money? Here's why:
1. Wake Forest returns 8 on offense and defense. . . the key being their QB, top two receivers and top two rushers. Northern Illinois returns 7 on offense and 9 on defense, but will start a QB that either has no experience at all or very very limited experience. I feel that a returning QB is like gold in these season openers (most of the time). That is just my opinion.
2. Northern Illinois is 1-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 11 season openers. To be fair, Wake Forest is only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road openers, but these stats in my view have to favor Wake Forest especially when they return their starting QB from last season. You have a Northern Illinois team that has won only a single game in their last eleven openers and you're expecting them to beat this experienced Wake Forest team without returning their starting QB?
3. Northern Illinois went 1-4 ATS at home last year while Wake Forest went 4-1 ATS on the road. Both teams did meet last season in each teams' finale with Wake Forest winning 38-35 as 10.5 point favorites. Clearly NI played a great game but will not have their QB from last year's game.
As you can tell my from discussion here, I strongly believe that a team has a real advantage when returning their starting QB and a decent supporting cast (receivers, rushers, etc.). NI has a nice supporting cast returning, but not the same QB. It's impossible to know just how soon this offense will gel. I also expect a high scoring game similar to the final score of last year's game. I just do not believe NI will score as frequently as Wake Forest. . . espeically in the first half with their QB getting his feet wet. If NI's defense can hold Wake Forest early in this game, then I believe they certainly have a good chance at getting the home win. But I just don't see this happening.
Unfortunately, I won't be around to witness any line changes. . . I believe Wake will probably drop to a PK by the time the game starts, but I'll lay the 2 points now and hope the "losers" come out victorious in this one.
Wake Forest laying 2 for 1.1 units to win 1
Net units: +.7
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Northern Illinois vs. Wake Forest:
Normally, I would be all over the team from the weaker conference especially when Wake Forest is only favored by two. This is one of those games where people like those that Nolan Dalla wrote about will be all over Wake Forest because it looks too good to be true. I mean c'mon, who the hell is Northern Illinois?!?! LOL. . . If I was in Vegas for the weekend and didn't know anything about college football, I would definitely pick Wake Forest in this one because I would assume that Northern Illinois couldn't possibly be any good and since Wake Forest is from the ACC, they must be halfway decent right?!?!
I'm stalling, but still wanted to say that I know if there is smart money on this game, that it will likely fall on Northern Illinois. The square money will likely fall on Wake Forest. So why am I going to go against the perceived smart money? Here's why:
1. Wake Forest returns 8 on offense and defense. . . the key being their QB, top two receivers and top two rushers. Northern Illinois returns 7 on offense and 9 on defense, but will start a QB that either has no experience at all or very very limited experience. I feel that a returning QB is like gold in these season openers (most of the time). That is just my opinion.
2. Northern Illinois is 1-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 11 season openers. To be fair, Wake Forest is only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road openers, but these stats in my view have to favor Wake Forest especially when they return their starting QB from last season. You have a Northern Illinois team that has won only a single game in their last eleven openers and you're expecting them to beat this experienced Wake Forest team without returning their starting QB?
3. Northern Illinois went 1-4 ATS at home last year while Wake Forest went 4-1 ATS on the road. Both teams did meet last season in each teams' finale with Wake Forest winning 38-35 as 10.5 point favorites. Clearly NI played a great game but will not have their QB from last year's game.
As you can tell my from discussion here, I strongly believe that a team has a real advantage when returning their starting QB and a decent supporting cast (receivers, rushers, etc.). NI has a nice supporting cast returning, but not the same QB. It's impossible to know just how soon this offense will gel. I also expect a high scoring game similar to the final score of last year's game. I just do not believe NI will score as frequently as Wake Forest. . . espeically in the first half with their QB getting his feet wet. If NI's defense can hold Wake Forest early in this game, then I believe they certainly have a good chance at getting the home win. But I just don't see this happening.
Unfortunately, I won't be around to witness any line changes. . . I believe Wake will probably drop to a PK by the time the game starts, but I'll lay the 2 points now and hope the "losers" come out victorious in this one.
Wake Forest laying 2 for 1.1 units to win 1
