Thanks Idabdou - glad your Warriors could put up some points for me! Fun team to watch.
Warriors-Clippers
The late NBA primetime game brings an interesting divisional matchup between the Clippers and Warriors. Both these teams are a game into the season, and they both played the same opponent, but with very different results. The Clippers got embarrassed by the depleted Lakers, while the Warriors demolished the same team on the next night. So, this gives the bettor a good gauge of the talent of these teams. Or not. X+Y doesn?t always = Z in the NBA. In fact, it rarely does. This game is about responding with good changes, being motivated, and not developing complacency.
The Warriors will certainly be motivated to take out their hyped divisional foe tonight on national TV, but their excellent results last night do not bode very well for them. When something works for a team, they can get stuck in what worked once and not execute a well-rounded offensive strategy. Over the last four seasons, the Warriors have struggled when they are playing as a dog coming off a game where they made at least twelve three pointers, going 6-28 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%). As a road dog they are even worse, going 0-16 SU (losing by an average of 17 points per game), and 2-14 ATS (12.5%). Twice in this situation they played the Clippers, losing 105-91 in the 2010 season and 115-89 last season. When playing as a dog after making 12 or more three pointers over the last four seasons, the Warriors have shot under 35% from the three point line in over 65% of their contests, while attempting more than 20 three pointers in 75% of these matches (in comparison they have attempted 20 or more three point attempts in 57.8% of all contests over the last four seasons). This shows how they become over reliant on a certain type of shot to carry them. When playing as a dog in a game where they shoot less than 35% from the three point line and attempt at least 20 three pointers, the Warriors are 5-37 SU, losing by an average of 11.67 points per game, and 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) over the last four seasons.
On the other side, the Clippers need to prove themselves against a good opponent after their horrible performance against the Lakers, in which the their opponent made 14 three pointers, including 6 in the fourth quarter. Since the 1996 season, teams coming off a loss as a favorite in a game where their opponent made 12 or more three pointers, are 72-13 SU (+11.41 points) and 50-32-3 ATS (61%) when playing as a home favorite of five or more. If their opponent is coming off a win, these teams are 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%). One could surmise that they will be working hard on protecting the three point line after their last game, and especially against an opponent like the Warriors.
The Clippers have to be thoroughly embarrassed by their performance against the Lakers, but teams usually respond well in this situation. Teams coming off a loss as a favorite of eight or more are 53-32-1 ATS (62.4%) when playing as a home favorite over the last four seasons. Teams coming off a big win are often overvalued, while teams coming off a bad loss are undervalued. Over the past four seasons, teams playing as a home favorite of five or more are 47-30-2 ATS (61.0%) when coming off a loss of ten or more if their opponent is coming off a win of ten or more. This is also an important divisional game, and teams that are coming off a divisional loss of ten or more points as a favorite, when playing against another divisional opponent as a home favorite of five or more, are 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) since the 1996 season.
The Warriors are still a young team, and while they grew exponentially last season, they will still have their growing pains. They have really struggled after big wins, going 17-26 ATS (39.5%) over the last three seasons after winning a game by ten or more points, including 2-14 SU as a road dog, losing by an average of 13.31 points per game and covering just 31.2% of these contests. Last season as a road dog after a win of ten or more, they were 0-7 SU, losing by seventeen points per game.
The Clippers need to respond with a dominant win tonight, and while they may have overlooked the Lakers a bit in their first game, they are certainly not looking past this Warriors team that has become their biggest rival in the Pacific division. This game can be summarized easily - for the Warriors, when it?s working, don?t change it. For the Clippers, when it?s broke, fix it. But basketball is always about adapting and progressing, and I?ll take the team that needs to make the biggest strides tonight.
Clippers -6.5 -107
