Thursdays HIT$ and Game of WEEK!

[bigruss50]

Last night, Virginia possibly cost themselves a tourney berth by crapping down their leg at FSU. The illini came up huge against possibly the worst team Ive watched all year, PSU, and SMS pulled off a close one at Bradley.

Yesterday 2-1 ATS +3 units
YTD 11-3 ATS +16 units

GAME OF THE WEEK---4 units
DUKE -9 @ Wake

Really the only analysis needed is 73-87. That, of course, was the final thing the Dookies saw when they left Cole Field House five days ago. Then look at how Maryland and Cincy walked into Wake and left with a quick vic. Duke will do the same. Wake relies too much on Josh Howard and Darius Songaila and with Howard probably out of the lineup tonight with a bum ankle, Darius will have too much weight on his shoulders. The refs may play a huge role in determining the outcome of this play tonight because if Songaila gets into foul trouble, the Dookies will eat this team alive. I think Duke was completely embarassed about what happened over the weekend and they will come out with a fire that few teams can defend. Wake is not one of those teams. Howard is among the top 3 on the team in Pts, rebounds, blocks, steals, assists, shooting percentage, and 3 pointers. With him healthy, the Wakesters would have their hands full. With him hurt, they have a near impossible task. If he's out, they will get swallowed up. Duke is too much when they are pissed....Devils by 18

More games later

 

[heelsfan]

Be very careful with duke's situation tonight. They are going into another top acc team that doesn't seem to get the due respect. Duke could blow them out after the maryland loss but don't be surprised to see wake cover this (IMHO) odd line....only nine points. Seems to be odd to me but anyone else have any thoughts???

Wake could be worth a ML shot...just small though...very small

any thoughts??

 

[superbook]

The line is odd if you ask me too.

I'm just going to watch.

Personally I wouldn't play the ML on Wake.

 

[heelsfan]

I doubt that I will but if I do it will be for a very small amount just so I can root harder against duke!!!!!!!!!!

but I might put a unit on wake getting +9

 

[Stewy]

Good work Big Russ!

Good work Big Russ!

If Howard Plays I am going small on the Wake Money line. I don't think the line is that fishy, Vegas knows that this line will get plenty of Duke money.

 

[checkraiser]

Russ
Nice call on Illinois last night, I tried telling you Penn St. was the play and you didn't want to listen, good thing huh.

Two common reactions often happen after a game of duke/maryland magnitude
#1) winning team lets down in there next game (did not happen maryland won by 18 although sluggish start)
#2) losing team gets angry and is motivated in there next start
? yet to be determined but if 1 of these reactions didn't follow through I would be suprised.
If there is one thing for sure, it is that there is no commonplace in college bball this year as very little seems to go as it should.
good luck with duke tonight
better coach,better team, motivation should =W

 

[superbook]

Stewy -- a good line gets money on both sides.

If if it's going to get a lot of Duke money why hasn't the line moved off of 9 even with a potential Wake injury?

Duke has lost 21 times in the regular season during the last six seasons. In the game following those losses they're 18-3 with an average margin of victory of 27.

27-9 = fishy

 

[bigruss50]

dookies

dookies

I would be very VERY scared taking the ML against Duke tonight. Im guessing that I hate Duke more than anyone posting on here but a few of you guys might be passing me in that category tonight if you take the Wake ML. Do you realize how hard its going to be watching that game if you bet against Duke. Even when Maryland was up 20+ on Saturday you had to have that feeling that duke was gonna make a run and possibly make a game of it. Either way everyone enjoy the game.

Checkraiser, about the Illini last night...
I hadn't seen PSU play all year and I still thought the Illini would blow that one open. After watching the lions play, Im thinking they are the worst Big 10 team in several years. Im planning on taking everyone that PSU plays from here on out unless the oddsmakers were watching that game last night too. They should be ashamed of themselves, letting a worthless big man like archibald put in 25 with a damn cast on his wrist.

Whats everyone think of the big stanford-sc matchup tonight??

 

[Stewy]

!

!

Duke -9 seams like the right line here to me. They are pissed about the Maryland game and they own Wake Forest. Wake Forest has lost to Duke 11 straight times, last year @ home on a last second shot by Duhon. Duke -9 may be easy money, I'll just pass on this one.

 

[superbook]

From Scoresdaily

Duke Looks to Right Ship in the "Wake" of Defeat
2/21/2002 By Scott Finnell

WINSTON-SALEM - Feb. 27, 2001. Duke loses to Maryland, 91-80. They come back less than a week later, on March 4, 2001, and paste No. 4 North Carolina, in Chapel Hill, by a score of 95-81, covering the spread by more than 10 points.

Almost one year later. Feb. 17, 2002. Duke loses to Maryland, 87-73. Now, tonight, they go on the road, for a conference game against a ranked team. Sound familiar?

Duke looks to rebound from the ugly loss at Maryland (where they shot only 36 percent from the field and only 50 percent from the line) tonight and come into Winston-Salem as a nine point favorite over Wake Forest. Maryland thrashed the Blue Devils on Sunday, puncturing their aura of invincibility with tough defense and a strong inside game.

On the same day, Wake Forest's convincing 22 point victory over Virginia - covering the spread by 18 - is also working to keep tonight's spread in single digits. This tight spread adds value to a Duke team that is expected to blow out even top opponents.

Coach Mike Kryzewski rarely allows the Dookies perform below their ability for two games in a row. "In conference play, the Blue Devils have not lost consecutive games since January of 1997 when fifth-ranked Clemson and second-ranked Wake Forest defeated them in back-to-back games," said John Galt, of WatchdogSports.com. In fact, since the 1985-86 season, Duke has lost two or more games in succession just 14 times under Mike Krzyzewski. Duke is now 20-3 SU and 11-6 ATS after a SU loss. Going back to '98 Duke is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss."

Galt points out that these teams' contrasting styles of play also favor a Duke win against the spread. "Duke is averaging 91 points per game this season and they have scored 76 or less points just three times this year. . . the key stat in this match-up is the fact that Wake Forest is only 5-50 SU and 13-42 ATS when they allow 80 points or more in a game. In this series Duke has gotten 80 or more points in eight of the last ten games and Duke has scored 80 or more points in eight straight games off a SU loss."

Wake is no cupcake however, as the Deacons' do have some weapons. Forward Darius Songaila is coming off a 30 pt, 11 rebound night against Virginia and will lead a talented frontcourt against an undersized Duke team. The Devils' had gotten away with playing skinny Mike Dunleavy at the power forward position all year until the Maryland game, when the Terps' Chris Wilcox kept Dunleavy in foul trouble while scoring 23 points. Expect Wake to exploit that same mismatch with Songaila, Vytas Danelius, and Antwan Scott all sharing time in the post.

Perhaps the biggest factor for Wake Forest will be fouls. The Demon Deacons, using a junk defense, were able to hang tight with Duke for most of the first half back in January. Then Songaila picked up a stupid technical foul complaining to the officials and had to take a 13-minute rest. The Devils never looked back and won 103-80. Josh Howard, Wake's other team leader and the Deacs' defensive stopper, also suffered from foul trouble and got only 17 minutes in the loss. (Howard is still suffering from a sprained ankle and is questionable for tonight's matchup.)

Howard's possible absence, the Devils' sparkling record after losses, and these teams' contrasting style of play have led at least one prognosticator to pick Duke ATS.

"Either way Wake Forest plays it tonight they will not be able to stop a motivated and intense Blue Devil team. Duke by 20," said Galt.

 

[bigruss50]

adding plays

adding plays

Superbook-Thanks for the great info, it pretty much reiterated what I was saying/thinking all along. Its really hard to argue with what he was saying. IMO most people bet against duke because they hate them and want to be twice as happy when they fail. Unfortunately, they rarely fail and especially not twice in a row. Anyway, thanks again for the article--thats great stuff.

In addition to the 4 units on the dookies, Im adding these:

Oregon -22.5 hosting Wazzu for 3 units

First off Wash St is 0-10 on the road this year. Secondly, Oregon is a stunning 14-0 at home this year. The ATS marks arent much better as WSU is 2-8 on the road and Oregon is 8-2 at home. Oregon let them hang around in their first meeting before winning by 8. Consider some of Oregons home wins: Louisville by 27, Pepperdine by 24, Arizona by 30, UCLA by 29, Oregon St by 29. They pummel teams in Eugene, winning by an average of 26 ppg this season. Then look at what happens to the Cougars when they go on the road: by 27 @ texas, 23 @gonzaga, 21 @ usc, 33 @ stanford, 33 @ cal, 17 @ arizona, and please tell me this didnt really happen---51 @ ASU. They are losing by an avg of 23 a game on the road and that avg has been 33 in their last 10. I didnt think I would find another major conference team as lousy as PSU looked last night but I may have come across one here. The cougars are fighting hard for a tourney berth, the PAC 10 tourney that is--not this year fellas, sorry. This will be bloody----DUCKS by 34.

Tulsa +2 @ Hawaii for 2 units

What a great matchup this will be. Who would have ever predicted these teams would be playing tonight for the WAC title. Tulsa comes into this game with an outstanding 10-2 road record and an even more outstanding 9-1 ATS mark in those contests. Hawaii on the other hand is very tough at home with an 12-1 record, 8-3 ATS. The thing Im looking at here is how the warriors won at Tulsa already this year and its extremely difficult to beat a good team twice. The losing squad seems to make more adjustments while the winning one doesn't want to screw up the winning formula. I think this will play into Tulsa's hands tonight as they exact revenge on Hawaii as they are a deeper and more balanced ballclub. This line is falling in a hurry and has dropped from 3 to 1.5 on some sites. Other than the warriors, Tulsa has only lost to Arkansas, Kansas and Fresno all season, with the 8 point setbacks to Hawaii and Kansas being their most lopsided of the year. I expect this to be a very close game and Tulsa has enough momentum (winners of 12 out of last 13) and revenge on their mind to pull the road upset. Tulsa by 4

 

[bigruss50]

one more

one more

Id also like to add:

Mich St -7 hosting minny for 2 units

Mich st is not as untouchable at the Breslin Center as they once were but they are still a great home club, winning 12 of 15 this year, by an average of 13 ppg. Minny on the other hand is awful on the road, 2-7 on the year, losing by an average of 7 ppg. Minny has no momentum whatsoever, losing at Northwestern and at home against Wisconsin in the last week. Minny edged the spartans earlier in the year by 3 at home but the gophers scoring is down a sickening 14 ppg when they go on the road and they wont have what it takes tonight. Marcus Taylor and Adam Ballinger, arguably the top 2 spartan players, did not play in the first meeting. The Spartans will be full strength tonight and with indiana, ohio st and iowa still on tap for MSU, they see this as a must win game. Spartans roll by 11

 

[NIEM36]

this line looks pretty good to me. duke should cover, they are pissed after that maryland game. I feel sorry for anyone who has to play duke for the rest of the year. does anyone know any early odds on the tournament.

 

[djv]

I think you Mich St play may be your best one. I watch Minn play wisky. They were out coached at home. They were out hustled at home. You are correct M St does have to players that did not play last time. I believe Minn will play a little better this evening. But I like the schedule as it set's up. This is big for M St. They also have the revenge factor. Anything for 7.5 or less is aplay.

 

[Weasel]

remember folks vegas doesn't make many bad lines. duke is 23 - 2 su, and 12 - 12 ats, 9 - 8 ou .........

GLTA


Weasel

 

[just cover]

russ-

Like the call on Duke mainly because of their last game and will see a big effort from them. Like them for a couple units and also like the over. Off subject- what is does the Ptown stand for prophetstown,princeton ?

good luck

just cover

 

[bigruss50]

ptown

ptown

I can tell you one thing. I aint anywhere near prophetstown

 

[nole47]

Duke has lost 21 times in the regular season during the last six seasons. In the game following those losses they're 18-3 with an average margin of victory of 27.

this statement from superbook is the key. just bet duke of a loss and long term it will pay off

 

[heelsfan]

Congrats to all duke backers

I guess you were right I bet with my heart b/c I hate duke soooo much but they simply destoyed wake tonight. I didnt play the ML but did play wake for a few units but nothing outrageous. congrats to all.

I thought the game was going to get out of hand at the beginning with all the rough play. Would love to see dunleavy and that one guy go at it at half court. If I was skip prossler I would have got thrown out ten minutes into the game.