Great question Lowell! They haven't covered ATS in a single game that they shot BELOW 30% from 3 point range. In 10 of their 14 SU losses they shot 30% or below from beyond the arc. In all their ATS wins they shot at least 31%. Before today's game they were only shooting 26.5 from 3 in their last 5 games while the illini shot an impressive 41% in their last 5. The biggie though is overall shot percentages (Ind 38.3 last 5 before today, Illinois 51.5)
If Indiana can win the turnover battle and outrebound the Illini they will win. That is unless they shoot like they did in their last 5 before the tourn. In all their losses they have lost one or the other (TO's or Reb). They will have to defend the 3 like they did last time vs. Illinois (gave up 12%) I think they will outrebound them! So as long as they don't shoot below 30% from 3 and can shoot somewhere around 45% from the field they can pull out the SU win. A LOT OF IF'S THOUGH! Davis is a good tournament coach, moye a good leader and you have to think Bracey is getting some confidence back. Saying all that, we still lack talent and depth and man.....as much as I was inspired by the play of Tapak and Johnson today, if we have to rely on them in the game together tomorrow Illinois will have a HUGE advantage in team quickness and speed!
Who knows, I will spend a great deal on the game tonight, but have to focus on tonights games first. I will also get some insight on the teams' mood this evening.
GL
YAZ