Tim Hortons

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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since going to try to get in on the ipo, and follow this stock going forward. would start post about it. will trade on Toronto and New York.

would just to say that it will depend on what they price this at, in March. so will have to wait and see if there is value.

hope to get in on the ipo, will probably only get half (actaully probably a 1/3 of what I want.) still does not hurt to try.

Wendys long term are idiots for spinning this off....just dumb. Wendy shareholder will get the rest of tims after the 15% ipo.

thanks
selkirk

Tim Hortons top performing division as Wendy's swings to US$30M profit
February 3, 2006, 10:40 am


DUBLIN, Ohio (CP) - Tim Hortons remained the top-performing division of Wendy's International Inc. (WEN) in the fourth quarter, its booming sales on both sides of the border helping the burger chain swing to a $30-million-US profit.

Wendy's said Thursday its earnings improved to $29.96 million US, 25 cents per share, a vast improvement over its loss of $141.4 million, $1.25 per share, in the same period a year before. Total sales were virtually flat at $977 million in the fourth quarter ended Jan. 1, compared with $978 million in the prior year.

Wendy's shares fell 25 cents to $58.14 US in Friday trading on the New York Stock Exchange. But they are still near the upper end of their 52-week range of $36.73 to $59.94.

Poised to be spun off in an initial public offering set for March, Tim's was the main driver behind earnings growth.

The mainstay of the Canadian coffee-doughnut crowd contributed a 12.8 per cent larger share of sales revenue to company coffers - $341.6 million or 34.9 per cent of the total - than in the fourth quarter a year before.

Wendy's restaurants, on the other hand, continued to show lacklustre sales, contributing 5.4 per cent less toward revenues than in the prior-year period at $588.9 million, down from $622.5 million.

Full-year profit at Wendy's also improved, moving up to $224 million, $1.92 per share, from $52 million, 45 cents per share, in 2004. Total revenues for 2005 were $3.78 billion, up 4.1 per cent from $3.64 billion in the year before.

That too owed much to the success of Tim Hortons, where same-store sales increased 5.2 per cent in Canada and seven per cent in the United States. That came on the heels of increases of 7.4 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively in 2004.

"Tim Hortons delivered another outstanding year, increasing revenues to $1.2 billion, up 19 per cent compared to 2004," chairman and CEO Jack Schuessler said in a statement.


Schuessler added that the rollout of a chunk of Tim Hortons in an IPO is "on track for late March."

Wendy's plans to offer 18 per cent of Tim Hortons on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges. That first tranche will be worth an estimated $600 million US, but the planned IPO values the entire chain at about $4 billion US.

It then plans to spin off the rest of Tim Hortons within nine to 18 months by giving its shareholders new stock that represents the remaining stake in the division.

Industry observers say the Tim Hortons shares could be worth between $29 and $36 US each.

Elsewhere in its financial report Wendy's International said same-store sales, or sales at locations open at least one year, fell 3.7 per cent at its Wendy's restaurants. The same-store figure is a key measure of a retailer's performance.

The company closed 40 underperforming Wendy's stores and sold 171 Wendy's real estate properties in the second half of the year.
 

dawgball

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selkirk -- I saw that you posted interest in this stock's ipo a few weeks back, and I was surprised. But now that I see how high your interest is, I am intrigued.

I always viewed Tim Horton's as the Krispy Kreme (we kno this stock's story -- as I did well but could of done better buying puts on this) of Canada, but without doing any research I am starting to wonder if it is more in line with Starbucks (never had any holdings in this but don't we all wish we did) where the culture is huge in Canada.

Are either one of these correlations correct?

How much of their revenue is generated from coffee and how much from donuts? If they receive 50%+ from donuts, then my interest will stop here.

But I will be interested in following this along with you hoping that you do well in this trade.

Good luck.
 

selkirk

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Dawgball nothing like Krispy Kreme, little closer to starbucks, but quite a bit different to that story also....

Krispy Kreme had a lot of celebrity buzz, and they were not that many around. donuts were there main product and even how they made them were a "new" draw to get people in the door. when the buzz dies down so does the sales.

Tims sell coffee but the price is about half at starbucks. they advertise how great the coffee is but you cannot buy 20 different kinds. people line up for coffee, to get their morning coffee.

They sell donuts but have not seen them advertise donuts in any commercail. currently selling a yogurt cup with fresh berries. sometimes muffins. they always promote a meal deal like small sub, coffee, (beside it donut or muffin), ect. for 5-6 dollars.

also I know in BC they sell Tims bottle water is a big seller, especially in the hot summer weather.


Tims will grow slowly in Canada, because they are already in thousands of locations. they sponser childrens 5-7 hockey "timbits hockey" across much of Canada. Also curling and other events.

hope to get in on the ipo, if they are not greedy should make money. then will look to buy when wendys shareholders get their shares later in the year, many large US hedge funds will blow it out the door, collecting the cash......

Tim would be a good buy at 15PE if it trades at that after the Wendy shareholders sell.

I am expecting growth in sales in the US to expand 10% a year. they do not have to be as big in the US as in Canada.

thanks
selkirk
 

dawgball

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Thanks for the follow up thoughts, selkirk. I will keep my eye on this as it moves along.

I would love to hear updates on the trading side if you get in.

Happy trading.
 

alb

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Oct 30, 1999
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Tim Horton uses a secret addictive ingredient. In Canada, there is 1 Tim's for every 10 people and half of them are already addicted. Ever talk to someone in the morning who hasn't had there Tim Horton's coffee yet.......be afraid!!! Addicts can buy an in-home Tim Horton's coffee maker and intravenous dispenser for when they can't make it to a Tim Horton's shop (even though there is one within 100meters of every Canadian household). No Tim Horton's has ever closed down or shown a profit loss for any period.
 
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