gw,
...certainly i am not basing my play on tennessee being "a very good team" however, i also don't think that the talent is bankrupt in knoxville. additionally, i don't see miami as the dominant team that they've been the last few years either....
...most people remember the miami that whipped tenn (26-3) last year in knoxville (...i do...i was there....), but they don't remember the miami team that just 2 months ago should have lost to a very poor/rebuilding (expecially the public perception of them at the time....) florida team.... a game that florida should have won and had wrapped up until the 4th quarter when everything fell apart. On 9/6/2003, Miami 38 Florida 33...miami won but failed to cover the -13.5....... Now Tennessee opens as miami's 2nd SEC opponent +13.5??? :shrug:
The last 2 times that I can remember Tennessee being a DD dog.... They not only covered, but won both games outright....
12/1/2001 Florida 32 Tennessee 34 W +17.5
9/7/1996 Tennessee 35 UCLA 20 W +16.5
...yeah, Tenn has not looked good this year (especially to the bettor going 6-2 SU but a measly 2-6 ATS...the only 2 covers...Florida and Bama...both on the road.) Did Tenn look piss poor last week? Yeah, they did.... I was there and it was absolutely pathetic. The score is no indication of how bad they played....
One thing that worries me is that if Duke can generate 180 yards rushing... Well, that DOES worry me.... Someone that watched that game (like the Duke fan sitting next to me) might even say that Duke had a reasonable chance to win that game, especially considering Duke's 34:05 - 25:55 in time of possession. (By the way, that gentleman was a class act and I could only hope that all fans conducted themselves in a like manner....) ...was Tennessee also coming off a 5 OT game at alabama? yep. might they have been looking ahead to miami? yep. did they really expect duke to pull off an upset? nope. has phil even took though of the number as a large favorite? nope.
...but Miami is coming in off a tough loss.... Some would say that they're pissed.... Yeah, so? Wouldn't you be if you just lost your shot a National Title??? Does that mean that they're playing a team that is "far less talented"? Nope.
Tennessee is playing for pride (a 2 TD doggie) and revenge (LY's embarrassing loss at home on homecoming) and much like WV beating Va Tech not that long ago, Tennessee is playing to ruin Miami's season....
But without this getting into TOO much of a rant, I think that Tenn +13 (or more depending on public perception) is a good wager.... Haven't played it yet, but definitely will.... Yeah, I'll probably play a little on the ML for shitts and giggles, but it won't be a large wager.... Do they have the talent to pull of the upset??? Well, I remember getting out of moot court a couple weeks ago.... 10/22/2003 West Virginia 28 over Virginia Tech 7 ...pulls the upset as a +14 dog.... :shrug:
Can Tennessee cover? Yeah, I think that they can.... Can they win outright? ...only time will tell...but I'll most likely drop a "case of beer" wager that they will and I'll get enough Miller lite to last a few months if they do.