TNT Dutch Open

[Ian]

Hoping for a bit more luck than last week where everything went pearshape on Sunday
3 outright selections
Langer - on his favourite course, in some of the best form of his career for some time and desperate to make the Ryder cup team I expect another bold showing this week - 16-1 Victor Chandler
Leaney - defending champion - indeed he has won 2 of the last 3 on different courses, he is a good links player and has a habit of playing well on courses that suit year in year out, although he has missed his last 2 cuts he did win his Open Qualifying group with a course record on the second day, 50-1 Simon Bold, 40-1 most places with 5 place option
Jacquelin - won a Challenge tour event on a similar course in Holland in 97, he is a good links player and was only one shot off the lead going into the last day of the Open, although he missed the cut here last year he is in far better form now 66-1 Betinternet

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

The week after the British Open and it's back to the usual European Tour field. Not even John Huston who have been regular a competitor return. One week's link golf is enough for most of last week's field, though the surprisingly competitive Els does make an appearance. The event is typically the week after the British Open and produces quality winners who have a good record in the previous week's event as well. The event history may be deceiving as the event returns to Noordwijkse last year after six years at Hilversumsche. Previous history at Noordwijkse may be important, but rather impressive is Stephen Leaney's record of winning this event twice in the last three years on two different courses.

This is a true links course with sand dunes prominent and wind set to be much more of a factor than it was last week. Little danger of bunker-phobia continuing this week as there are not many of them on this course, but there are plenty of blind second shots. The course is short and has been reduced by 137 yards to 6,751 yards to make it a par-71. The 14th hole is now a demanding 464-yard par-4. But at this yardage it will need the wind to remain a force if it is not to be rendered defenseless.

The three outright selections are Ernie Els, Bernhard Langer and Ricardo Gonzalez. For one with back trouble, Els' performance last week was extremely impressive on a physically demanding course. He hasn't played in this event since 1994 when he finished 7th, but last week he looked the world-class player that he was and must go close against this week's field. With Surrey offering two points more than anyone else, it is worth the conservative play on the each-way bet.

To complete a list of supposedly-injured selections, Bernhard Langer is the next pick. He has an excellent record on this course. While finishing no higher than 15th at Hilversumsche, he has finished 2nd, 1st, 2nd in the last three times the venue has been Noordwijkse. Having finally brought his US form to Europe in the past three weeks, he looks a genuine title contender this week.

The play on Ricardo Gonzalez is more speculative, though he did come back from a poor start to finish 21st against a strong field in the Scottish Open and finished in the top-10 in the events beforehand. He rested last week and apart from being the longest-hitter in the field, he does have decent all-round stats and could emulate his compatriot, Angel Cabrera, who has a similar game and finished 3rd last year.

Outright plays:

Ernie Els to win e.w. 10/1 @ Surrey
Bernhard Langer to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Ricardo Gonzalez to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and others

 

[Ian]

Adding one more speculative play on Mouland who has secured his card for next year with 2 top 5 finishes so far this year and with a good long term record in Holland 125-1 Sports.com

 

[Cartman88]

Once again I find that the three players I came up with have already been mentioned by Ian and Stan !!!!

Els 10-1 @ Surrey
Langer 12-1 @ Surrey (looks like 16-1 has gone now)
Leaney 40-1 @ Sportingodds

 

[Cartman88]

Adding the following matchup:

Jacquelin $1.72 vs Webster @ Centrebet

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Sven Struver to beat Warren Bennett -110 @ Stanley
Stuver is a former winner of this title - in 1997 when Bennett missed the cut in his appearance in this event. Struver shot every round under par last year to finish 26th and while there is not too much between them in current form, Struver gets the nod because of his event form

Andrew Coltart to beat Mikko Ilonen -111 @ Simon Bold
Ilonen may have finished 9th last week, but he had only made the cut three times in thirteen previous Tour events. Expect a reaction to last week's career finish and Coltart to win this by the weekend

Barry Lane to beat Darren Lee -111 @ Simon Bold
Lee may have had some decent finishes of late, but Lane's return to form is just as noticeable. 9th in the Irish Open and 3rd in the Scottish Open, followed by 29th last week. All three against very high quality fields and another top-10 is feasible this week

 

[Ian]

Stan
I like the Lane play as well but he injured his back playing last week which means he ......on second thoughts he should be backed after what happened with Langer and Els last week!!

 

[Stanley]

Exactly! I figure if he's injured properly he'll withdraw before teeing-off. Other that that, capping to injuries is a minefield

 

[Stanley]

Adding:

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ Camelot
Poulter had been in great form until the European Open when he finished last. Fully expect Gonzalez to finish in the top-20 at least, whereas Poulter is too unpredictable and is therefore opposed

 

[Ian]

Struggling to find any matchups - just one takes my fancy
Garbutt over Carter -110 Bananabet (catchyname for a bookie!)

 

[buckeye]

Can I get a two team parlay on Garbutt and Pitcock at Bananbet?

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Doesn't get much better than this, if only it were Sunday! Three of the four matchups are decided at the cut and two are winners. Coltart beat Ilonen by eight and Gonzalez beat Poulter by eleven. The loss came with Struver who finished his tournament nine shots behind Bennett. In the remaining play, Lane leads Lee by two. Great position in the outrights. Gonzalez leads the event by a shot and at 66/1 this will be a long weekend! Langer and Els are also in contention, four and six shots back respectively and both are in the top-20.

 

[Cartman88]

The consensus seemed to be Langer this week and he looks a big chance heading into the final round.

I am also adding a further outright play on Turner @ 9-1 with Surrey. Only 2 shots off the lead and thinking back over the years I believe he has a solid record when he has been in contention.

 

[Ian]

OK one last post to take me to 800
Thankyou Bernhard (not Bernard - which is pissing my wife off ) - at least I can sign off for now on a winning note - don't forget Mickelson and Faxon for next week and Parnevik and a couple of outsiders - Baker and Jonzon for Europe
TTFN
Ian

 

[Cartman88]

Very solid effort from Langer to get the cash. Finished birdie-birdie-birdie-par to get in the playoff and then watched Bennett miss a short putt at the first playoff hole.

Langer really did deserve to win a tournament after playing so consistently in recent times. Glad he chose to do it when we backed him !!!!

Just one matchup selection which saw Jacqueline sneak home over Webster by one stroke.

 

[Cartman88]

Great work from both Ian and Stan when you look at the outright selections they posted between them:

Langer 1st (who they both had)
Gonzalez 7th
Leaney 9th
Els 12th
Jacquelin 14th

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 3-1-0 and +1.90 units

Barry Lane had a comfortable 10-shot win over Daren Lee at the end of the tournament to wrap up a good tournament. With two of three matchups winning at the cut, not a bad week in the Netherlands.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +8.00 units

Strong performance by Langer to come home in 30 and force a play-off which he won on the first hole against Bennett. Seals his Ryder Cup place and a decent profit on the week. The lead came two days too early for Gonzalez - he shot 75 on Saturday to fall out of contention, but finished strongly to end up just one shot out of a very profitable place win. Els needed 64 on the final day to jump to 12th overall.

European Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 96-96; +3.01 units
Outright plays: 10-37; +33.39 units