To NEVER CAUGHT UP

[ryno]

Congrats on your super Sunday, can you tell me which Island book are you using (I Guess you are betting on an offshore book?)

From now on I need you to be my menthor, I will piggyback all your plays, I guess I shall start by betting in the same book as you.

Show me the way Master.
And lets go get them.
(I got so tired of loosing, that doesnt really hurts me, what it really hurts me is that I lost confidence in my self at handicapping)

 

[Never Caught Up]

Ryno,

I have accounts at multiple books. I use a live line service and shop for numbers and bet where I get the best line once I decide to play.

Don't get too carried away piggy backing me. I usually play five games and wire those five plays together in multiple ways using moneylines, straight bets and teasers. Last week I went 1 - 4 and puked because I had all dogs and the favorites came through huge. I played all but one dog this week and got lucky because favorites still covered more games than dogs did.

If you choose to follow me don't over leverage your bankroll and be prepared for bad weeks as well. It is a marathon, not a sprint.

And as for handicapping . . . I study line moves more than anything. Pretty unconventional, but I try to study what the smart money is doing and also what the "not so smart" money is doing. (See my writeup in a different thread on why I am playing Detroit Monday night.)

And always remember . . . shear fickle fate determines the outcome of half the games we wager on. See this thread from last June called "How to pick a winner with 99% accuracy."
http://www.madjacksports.com/ubb/Forum2/HTML/005125.html

Good luck,

NCU

 

[ryno]

By the way I would really appreciate some advice, I placed the following 4 team parlay:

san fco -270 (w)
San Fco Under 45 (w)
Rams -920
Rams Over 49

$1000/to win $4460

Do you think I shall Hedge in some way this parlay?

 

[BearDownAZ]

ryno,

I know that you asked NCU his opinion on this, but thought I would share mine for what its worth.

I would go for a huge middle! But I would make sure that you get paid no matter what.

If you are willing to assume the Rams will win this game (as this appears to be the safest bet on the board), then why not do a two team, 7 point teaser on Detroit +21 and under fifty six?????

Not sure how much you would want to put on it. . . maybe $1700 or so? That is something that you should decide, but I think it has some value. I also believe the line will only go up and so will the points that Detroit receives for this game. Therefore, if you do take this suggestion, maybe wait till the last few moments to play it when you get the best lines possible???

However you decide to do it, good luck and I hope you don't mind me adding my two cents!

 

[Never Caught Up]

I can't advise you on that. You have two variables and it is hard to hedge two variables. If you had three in and one to go it would be much easier.

I don't want to take you off a winner and over may be a winner, but I am not going to be on the over. Detroit has gone UNDER the total in 15 of their last 21 home games off a loss, including 7 of 9 UNDER when facing an opponent off a SU win.

 

[ryno]

thank you Bear I really appreciate your advice, as you said maybe it will be a good idea to wait a few minutes before game time to make a decision, thanks for your advice.

 

[ryno]

I guess I will have to wait until half time, and depending on the score I might have a chance to work something out.

 

[BearDownAZ]

I wish you well on this ryno! Just use your head and be content with any decision that you make. . . don't second guess yourself. . . especially if you decide to play it a little safe!

I thought of one other scenerio that may be even riskier, but worth a shot:

Wait and see how the first half goes!!! You have 2 different spots on one game. . . the odds are that 1 of those spots will be looking good by that time (probably the Rams ML, but who knows) and the other will need work (maybe only 23 points in the first half).

Then you have narrowed your position to one spot that you need to hedge. Given the fact that this is the Rams playing, if the first half goes under, there should be a REASONABLE line for the total for the second half.

Just something else to consider. . . I'd be interested in knowing what you decide to do if you're willing to tell me! Especially if you do not choose one of my ideas because then its another that I can consider if I am ever in this position!

 

[sweatbet]

Ryno, that's hard to hedge, if you do the teaser and Det. wins 30-27, you lose it all. You might wait until halftime, and see if you can get a middle with the hedge, with no risk. Good luck. (sorry posted before the last two posts were up)

[This message has been edited by pmj18 (edited 10-08-2001).]

 

[BearDownAZ]

lol ryno. . . you posted that while I was posting mine! Good point. . . but remember that the Rams have a 90% or higher chance at winning this game BASED ONLY on the line and ML.

If you can find it in yourself to be content with assuming they win this game, then you are down to only one spot (the over 49) to consider.

 

[ryno]

Bear, What ever I do I will let you know, I really need to win this bet or cover it some how, as I took a beating today, not with NFL but with Soccer, I got greedy and bet a LOT on the Mexican National soccer team against costa rica, I even post it in the off the wall forum as my "pick of the century", and I am mad with my self, because I was %100 sure, and convinced, that mexico was not going to loose that game, all I had to do was to place the bet on mexico at 2 to 1 odds, and draw at 2 to 1 odds and Collect, but I wanted the whole enchilada, and got raped. By the way the game finished in a 0-0 draw, (Mexico got a goal anulated by the refery). But that was then.

 

[Never Caught Up]

Ryno,

After giving your position some more thought here is what I would do if it were me. This is a bet I would make anyway if the other bet weren't there. I won't be playing this because I have all the DET I want and don't need anymore, but if I didn't have action working I would make this play.

7 Point teaser:
DET +21.5/Under 56.5 600/500

You have a shot of winning both bets.

You could lose both bets as well, but in my opinion the risk would be worth the potential return. If the game goes over I think the Rams will at least win the game outright. DET needs to keep the score down to have a shot at winning.

 

[BearDownAZ]

Funny. . . looks EXACTLY like what I posted. . . LOL

 

[yyz]

Note:

A hedge is not a hedge, if you can lose both wagers, no matter how slim those odds are.

Be very careful in doing that.

 

[Never Caught Up]

"Yes, but you didn't move your hand like this."

Actually, I had missed reading all of your post BearDown. Glad to see we think alike.

 

[Never Caught Up]

I never called this a hedge. I suggested that "This is a bet I would make anyway".

Ryno has a lot of value in the Rams at PK, but the over is what concerns me most. Detroit has gone UNDER the total in 15 of their last 21 home games off a loss, including 7 of 9 UNDER when facing an opponent off a SU win.

Plus, I like DET to cover the spread in this game and perhaps even win straight up. I'm probably wrong on both plays . . . and if I am the 4 team teaser wins.



[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 10-08-2001).]

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by Never Caught Up:
"Yes, but you didn't move your hand like this."

"It makes all the difference."

I love that bit!

 

[ryno]

After further review....
I decided to stand by my principles (one of my gambling comandments "once I make a bet never, ever change it". so I guess I will let it ride, and see what happens.

Maybe depending on the score at half time, I might act as the coward of the county, and hedge it some way.

 

[BearDownAZ]

ryno,

Definitely not a coward if you look to hedge a little. . . I wish you luck and a lot of points on the board tonight. . . if this happens, I believe you will make out just fine!