To Nolan -- next MNF line

[TheSportsPredictor]

Hey Nolan (and all):

I like the contrast in this week's MNF line vs. next week.

Both have the home team at -3.

HOWEVER, this week it was the Giants at -3 vs. the Eagles, a team that the G-men had defeated nine straight times. We have the defending Super Bowl runner-up playing at home in an energized NYC atmosphere against a team it has dominated for a presidential term, yet the G-men were getting only the standard home-field-advantage line.

Now, we've got the Steelers -3 vs. the Titans. The Steelers as you say are red hot and showing off their new stadium for the first time to the nation. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS this year and Tenn is 0-4-1 ATS. The Titans are a team that had high expectations heading into the year and have been very good for a couple of years, but are obviously down this year (they gave up 52 points in consecutive last-second wins vs. TB & Detroit -- unheard of with the defenses of the past). Yet Pittsburgh is only -3, the home-field-advantage line.

I think the oddsmakers are clueless this year. They have no idea what the outcome of games is going to be. That was evidenced by the last two weeks, with so many underdogs not just covering, but WINNING OUTRIGHT. I don't have the resources to figure it out, but it would be interesting to see how far off the lines are from the final result this year vs. past years.

Actually, if you go back to the Wash/Dall MNF game, you have three straight games where the line was right around -3 for the home team. Are the oddsmakers even trying to figure out a line or are they just putting -3 out there and saying "Have at it, bettors. Your guess is as good as ours."

 

[Hoops]

What would you have made the Wash/Dallas line? Two terrible teams..I think 3 was a good line. Last night, Eagles coming off a bye week..pretty much acknowledged they had that game circled for 9 months...general perception before the season and early on was the Giants weren't a true 'Super Bowl' team and most thought Philly would take the NFC East. Not much fault in that line either.

 

[Skinar]

Actually, I don't think the oddsmakers really try to figure the outcome of the game. They try to figure what the public thinks about the outcome of the game and determine the line that will do the best job of getting an even amount of money on both sides. Remember, bookies are not in the business of gambling, they merely serve as a market maker between gamblers and collect a commission for their efforts. You're not really playing against the man, you're playing other gamblers.

 

[yyz]

TSP,


I think the oddsmakers are clueless this year. They have no idea what the outcome of games is going to be.


People always scream that statement. I would guess you are cleaning up then, huh?

Favorites have been pounding books all season, and yet, the books have made money every week, from what I have heard. (Someone correct me if this is inacurate.)

People see trends, and run with them. It is a well known fact, that favorites and overs get the money played on them. This occures week in, and week out.

I think the lines are begging people to take the chalk, and the oddsmakers know that the trend for favorites winning will subside....this week it did. Now, that may just be serendipitous, or it might have been by design. I am in no position to make a claim on that.

If the oddsmakers knew the outcome of the games, they would be rich beyiond your wildest dreams!

They need to know how YOU will bet. That is all. Truth be told, they do a pretty good job. If you were a bookie, and lost money this week, you should get out of the game! This had to be one of the richest weeks in years for these guys!

A lot of guys thought, just like you, think:

Yet Pittsburgh is only -3, the home-field-advantage line.

Last night, the world said that about the Giants. This weekend, it was Tennessee, Carolina, Green Bay, etc.

The lines must be pretty good this year, as most of them don't budge more than a point from opening, til kickoff. That means equal ballance of action. That is the linemakers job.

Good luck this week, and we'll see how it pans out.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

I didn't mean to imply the oddsmakers are trying to predict the winner by creating a line. I know that for the most part they are trying to get equal action on both sides.

However, they haven't done anything but hang a three on three straight MNF games. Why were the Giants only -3 over Philly after beating them nine straight? I would think the oddsmakers could have got away with something up to five on that and no one would have questioned it.

It's generally considered that the home field advantage is worth three. So the way I look at it is that for three straight weeks the oddsmakers have felt the teams were evenly matched and they could get equal action by laying 3 on the home team. But I don't know if all three were equal matchups.

Heck, Dallas/Wash could have been a pick 'em and they would get equal action on both sides.

And yyz -- yes, I am cleaning up this year. And I don't know if people always scream that statement. I'm not screaming it. In the past I've always heard people saying how uncannily accurate the lines are. I've never quite agreed with that either.

And favorites only pounded the books for the first 3-4 weeks. The last couple of weeks the dogs have totally obliterated the favorites and were winning straight up. What's the record for dogs winning straight up in a season? That is the key -- not dogs covering. That would be interesting to find out.

I've always maintained that oddsmakers could put pick 'em on every game and still make money.

As far as last night, I wasn't saying much good about the Giants before, during, or after the game. I wondered why the line was only -3 -- it was MNF, Giants were at home, NYC is the media capital, NYG were in the Super Bowl last year, and they had beaten the Eagles nine straight. Yet they were only -3, which is what you would hang on any game you thought was an even matchup.

Next week, Pittsburgh has all the advantages over Tennessee at least this year, yet again it is only -3.

Looks to me like the oddsmakers aren't giving an opinion on that game. In contrast, the Rams are -12 over New Orleans, so the oddsmakers opinion is that not many will bet on the Saints to stay too close. For MNF the oddsmakers are just saying too close to call, take your best shot, we'll make $ anyway!

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by TheSportsPredictor:
And yyz -- yes, I am cleaning up this year.

Please post your plays!

We need winners, and that's what this place is all about.

I know I could use a boost!

 

[Mickstr68]

I'm all for that YYZ- give me some winners!!

 

[Night Owl]

Considering the Giants led by 6 late, but then lost by a point in a game/spread that could've gone either way -- like a ton of others this year -- the line looks just about right. Very similar to Dallas beating Washington, 9-7, the week before. One point off the line means they did a helluva job setting the line (at least to me) actually. This week, I think the G-men were only 3 because look at that division. It's pretty clear that NY and Philly are going to be fighting it out with each other all year long to see who ends up winning that division and I'd have to think both teams clearly knew that. Also, the difference in ability between the two teams really wasn't all that much to begin with.

Night Owl