Have you ever tried just betting all Home dogs? This is recomended by Mike Lee in his book "Betting the Bases". It would be interesting to see if the percentage would hold up or be better.
BETKING
BETKING
To Stag
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Betking.......
I have looked at the total units won for home dogs and away dogs. It doesn't even come close. If you bet 100 bucks on every dome dog since 1993 (with shopping), you would be about even.
However, if you bet every away dog since 1993 for 100 bucks a pop, you would be up close to 20,000. So, I should have said AWAY DOGS in my post. Thanks for bringing it up, however.
I found this info. in a database that Jack used to have here. It was called "QuantSport." The link no longer works for some reason, though. Maybe the books made them shut it down! HAHA!! But it was by far the most useful "read" in my life.
As to the reasons why AWAY DOGS make so much more than home dogs? I think that home-field is OVERVALUED in baseball. Many times a team is just favored because it is playing at home..(hence the value in the road team). Also, if a road team is favored, it truly is the better team more often than not.
Hope this helps.
Stag
I have looked at the total units won for home dogs and away dogs. It doesn't even come close. If you bet 100 bucks on every dome dog since 1993 (with shopping), you would be about even.
However, if you bet every away dog since 1993 for 100 bucks a pop, you would be up close to 20,000. So, I should have said AWAY DOGS in my post. Thanks for bringing it up, however.
I found this info. in a database that Jack used to have here. It was called "QuantSport." The link no longer works for some reason, though. Maybe the books made them shut it down! HAHA!! But it was by far the most useful "read" in my life.
As to the reasons why AWAY DOGS make so much more than home dogs? I think that home-field is OVERVALUED in baseball. Many times a team is just favored because it is playing at home..(hence the value in the road team). Also, if a road team is favored, it truly is the better team more often than not.
Hope this helps.
Stag
Stag
Stag
Thanks a lot for the info. You porbably have saved me a "Ton" of money. I was going to go the opposite way.
Thanks again,
BETKING
Stag
Thanks a lot for the info. You porbably have saved me a "Ton" of money. I was going to go the opposite way.
Thanks again,
BETKING
Betking...
I just wanted to tell you that I DO play the home dogs as well, and for 100 bucks each, just like the away dogs. Because I am a VERY frugle (sp) shopper, I can turn a VERY SMALL profit on home dogs just about every year. And any profit-making situation is one worth investing in.
But just nowhere near the numbers as aways dogs.
Good luck this season!
Stag
I just wanted to tell you that I DO play the home dogs as well, and for 100 bucks each, just like the away dogs. Because I am a VERY frugle (sp) shopper, I can turn a VERY SMALL profit on home dogs just about every year. And any profit-making situation is one worth investing in.
But just nowhere near the numbers as aways dogs.
Good luck this season!
Stag
thanks for the info guys..
i think i'll try to keep track of the away dogz this season and post em...like i've been keeping track of ML dogs in hockey....
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
i think i'll try to keep track of the away dogz this season and post em...like i've been keeping track of ML dogs in hockey....
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Stag
Stag
I forgot to ask you how you go about shopping. Is it best to take the odds early or late. Since you are playing dogs it would seem like buying late would be the best. How does it work for you?
BETKING
Stag
I forgot to ask you how you go about shopping. Is it best to take the odds early or late. Since you are playing dogs it would seem like buying late would be the best. How does it work for you?
BETKING
vegas line adjustment
vegas line adjustment
betking...... with all due respect, here is how vegas works. they set a line and could care less who wins or loses. however, they do care about how money is moving and they will effect the line accordingly, as will the bookmakers. just remember, juice is how they make money. also, bear in mind that the public affects their line movement, not their opinion. say the yankees and clemens are $180 and people are putting money on him, well they will make you pay more to get him and vice versa if people are playing the dog, so it really doesnt matter when you play a game.
maybe you can a dime or so at a later time, but generally not much more.
vegas line adjustment
betking...... with all due respect, here is how vegas works. they set a line and could care less who wins or loses. however, they do care about how money is moving and they will effect the line accordingly, as will the bookmakers. just remember, juice is how they make money. also, bear in mind that the public affects their line movement, not their opinion. say the yankees and clemens are $180 and people are putting money on him, well they will make you pay more to get him and vice versa if people are playing the dog, so it really doesnt matter when you play a game.
maybe you can a dime or so at a later time, but generally not much more.
Betking........
You bring up a VERY GOOD question.......and one I was going to ask the rest of the forum this week.........
"Do prices on faves get higher or lower throughout the day?"
I hope many people respond to this because I am really not sure.
Personally, I play all 15 games at the same time (right before the first game starts).
I do NOT want gambling to be an extra job. I want my wagering to take up as little time as possible so I can go out and enjoy my life.
That said, I do not pay attention to the lines after my wagers are in. (It only takes me 10 minutes to shop these 3 books on-line or from a phone and place the bets).
As to who the line moves help---the chalk bettor or the underdog bettor---I don't really know.
But, my guess would be the underdog player. I say this because: 1- it's human nature for people gravitate towards the favorite (the team EXPECTED to win) and 2- I would imagine that many gamblers would "chase" the last games on the West Coast (with faves, of course. So maybe the books take this into consideration and boost the price on faves (thus bringing up our comeback on the dogs).
I might monitor how the prices move throughout the day for the first few weeks of the season and see if I can catch something.
Stag
You bring up a VERY GOOD question.......and one I was going to ask the rest of the forum this week.........
"Do prices on faves get higher or lower throughout the day?"
I hope many people respond to this because I am really not sure.
Personally, I play all 15 games at the same time (right before the first game starts).
I do NOT want gambling to be an extra job. I want my wagering to take up as little time as possible so I can go out and enjoy my life.
That said, I do not pay attention to the lines after my wagers are in. (It only takes me 10 minutes to shop these 3 books on-line or from a phone and place the bets).
As to who the line moves help---the chalk bettor or the underdog bettor---I don't really know.
But, my guess would be the underdog player. I say this because: 1- it's human nature for people gravitate towards the favorite (the team EXPECTED to win) and 2- I would imagine that many gamblers would "chase" the last games on the West Coast (with faves, of course. So maybe the books take this into consideration and boost the price on faves (thus bringing up our comeback on the dogs).
I might monitor how the prices move throughout the day for the first few weeks of the season and see if I can catch something.
Stag
well said stag
well said stag
i think i was trying to say the same sort of thing. find a game and play it as early as possible and be done with it. don't worry about anyhting else.
well said stag
i think i was trying to say the same sort of thing. find a game and play it as early as possible and be done with it. don't worry about anyhting else.
Early or late odds
Early or late odds
Very good advice on both of your parts. I think the best way to approach this problem is to play your games early the first month and keep good records. After a month or so you can look for trends to appear and see if they are worth the trouble, if not just play them early and forget it.
BETKING
Early or late odds
Very good advice on both of your parts. I think the best way to approach this problem is to play your games early the first month and keep good records. After a month or so you can look for trends to appear and see if they are worth the trouble, if not just play them early and forget it.
BETKING
I would think the favorite would get higher during the day, just that the fact that there seems alot more favor betting the favorite instead of the dog.
Based on last year, if you're betting dogs in bases, I would suggest betting the overnight lines.
gl
gl
Is it wise to avoid betting against big gun pitchers (Martinez,Johnson,etc.) I know the money is much larger if you happen to win, but over a season I would guess that some money can be saved avoiding certain games i.e. pedro's opening game. Anyone else have thoughts on this?
stone ... check out the 'pen
stone ... check out the 'pen
Stone,
I think there is value is playing against the big guns IF they have a marginal bullpen. Obviously, last year Pedro was hurt, so it doesn't really count. But, the Red Sox had a under-performing bullpen also. Pedro would be -300, pitch a shutout into the 7th or 8th, then have the bullpen blow it.
I think you are right to avoid playing against the stellar pitchers if they have a good bullpen backing them up, but look for value if their relief is shaky.
jatski
stone ... check out the 'pen
Stone,
I think there is value is playing against the big guns IF they have a marginal bullpen. Obviously, last year Pedro was hurt, so it doesn't really count. But, the Red Sox had a under-performing bullpen also. Pedro would be -300, pitch a shutout into the 7th or 8th, then have the bullpen blow it.
I think you are right to avoid playing against the stellar pitchers if they have a good bullpen backing them up, but look for value if their relief is shaky.
jatski
Stag
Stag
I like the idea of staying away from the top notch pitchers as suggested from the replies above. It looks like this could pureify you method and up your W%. What do you think?
BETKING
Stag
I like the idea of staying away from the top notch pitchers as suggested from the replies above. It looks like this could pureify you method and up your W%. What do you think?
BETKING
Betking.......
it's really not about winning %.....rather units won.
Dogs usually hit 41 percent of their games each season (sounds bad right?) Well, its not. And a lot of the units won are on BIG DOGS.......over +200.
Stats show big dogs to be very successful. When you start picking and choosing which dogs to wager on, the strategy goes down the tubes. Believe me, I've been there and learned. ANY team can beat ANY team frequently in baseball, regardless of pitchers and line-ups. It truly is a game of inches and bad hops.
SuperBook.....
how did you get the info on "betting dogs on the overnight line"?
Stag
it's really not about winning %.....rather units won.
Dogs usually hit 41 percent of their games each season (sounds bad right?) Well, its not. And a lot of the units won are on BIG DOGS.......over +200.
Stats show big dogs to be very successful. When you start picking and choosing which dogs to wager on, the strategy goes down the tubes. Believe me, I've been there and learned. ANY team can beat ANY team frequently in baseball, regardless of pitchers and line-ups. It truly is a game of inches and bad hops.
SuperBook.....
how did you get the info on "betting dogs on the overnight line"?
Stag
some more info on how important shopping can be.........
let's say you do my underdog strategy and you have 3 quality books which offer great dimelines for dog players (Horizon, Pinnacle, and Canbet)
Now...there will be 2,430 regular season games played this season. Underdogs have historically win 41 percent of their games each year. Dogs usually win about 1,000 games each season, and lose 1,430.
Let's say that you can get just a ONE DOLLAR difference in each game (and that is being very conservative). Example....Kansas City at Detroit. If Canbet has KC +108, Horizon has KC +111, and Pinnacle has KC at +110, you would place your wager on the Royals at Horizon...100 to win 111.
Are you with me? Doesn't seem like much, does it? Well....it is!
If you can add just one dollar (by shopping) for all 1,000 of your underdog winners, you would pick up an extra $1,000 each year. (That's if you play every underdog blindly for 100 bucks a pop, such as I do)
Think about it.....an extra grand a year earned (or saved, if the dogs end up having a very rare losing season). That's an extra $10,000 in your pocket over the course of a decade, simply by shopping for a one dollar difference in the comeback price of every underdog winner.
And, if you find several great dog books, more often than not you will find more than one dollar differences in each game. Some books boost the faves up by at least a nickel (or 5 dollars, how ever you choose to say it), while improving my odds on the dog by that nickel.
This system works well for me. I will never differ from it. But it take courage to drop a C-note on every team "expected to lose." But, in the long-run, you will show a nice profit, with very little risk and no second-guessing.
Stag
let's say you do my underdog strategy and you have 3 quality books which offer great dimelines for dog players (Horizon, Pinnacle, and Canbet)
Now...there will be 2,430 regular season games played this season. Underdogs have historically win 41 percent of their games each year. Dogs usually win about 1,000 games each season, and lose 1,430.
Let's say that you can get just a ONE DOLLAR difference in each game (and that is being very conservative). Example....Kansas City at Detroit. If Canbet has KC +108, Horizon has KC +111, and Pinnacle has KC at +110, you would place your wager on the Royals at Horizon...100 to win 111.
Are you with me? Doesn't seem like much, does it? Well....it is!
If you can add just one dollar (by shopping) for all 1,000 of your underdog winners, you would pick up an extra $1,000 each year. (That's if you play every underdog blindly for 100 bucks a pop, such as I do)
Think about it.....an extra grand a year earned (or saved, if the dogs end up having a very rare losing season). That's an extra $10,000 in your pocket over the course of a decade, simply by shopping for a one dollar difference in the comeback price of every underdog winner.
And, if you find several great dog books, more often than not you will find more than one dollar differences in each game. Some books boost the faves up by at least a nickel (or 5 dollars, how ever you choose to say it), while improving my odds on the dog by that nickel.
This system works well for me. I will never differ from it. But it take courage to drop a C-note on every team "expected to lose." But, in the long-run, you will show a nice profit, with very little risk and no second-guessing.
Stag
Stag --
No hard evidence, I just remember from last year that the favs, especially the big favs, tend to go up now down.
No hard evidence, I just remember from last year that the favs, especially the big favs, tend to go up now down.
thanks Super......
i will check this out.........an possibly put my plays in thenight before if it's true
i will check this out.........an possibly put my plays in thenight before if it's true
