Season to date:
AFL: 8-5 (61.54%)
NRL: 22-20 (52.38%)
SUPER 12: 22-10 (68.75%)
OVERALL: 52-35 (59.77%)
Super 12)
Was a little wary of the Super 12 this weekend prior to last night's game - now I'm very wary.
The desire to make the playoffs will put past from and covers out the window to a fair extent; shown by the Chiefs' outstanding display against the 'Canes. And the lines this week seem very accurate. So I'll concentrate on one play and give some thoughts on the other games for those keen on playing them.
Bulls v Stormers, Minolta Loftus Stadium, Pretoria, 22:30 CST
Bulls +6.5
Have the Bulls been on the piss all week since recording their first win of the season last weekend v the bungling Blues? Hope so, but even if they've been stone-cold sober I see them as a go against this time. There are several factors in our favour for a play on the Stormers, despite them being road dogs. The gulf in class between these two outfits is vast - while the Bulls continue to give plenty of effort, there really is a lack of top-class skills for them to a) score regularly, and b) perform for 80 minutes. The Stormers were flattered by their win over the Chiefs at home last weekend but did show how dangerous they could be even when living off scraps off possession. The Bulls also have key absences thru injury - first-fibe Boeta Wessels and impressive No8 Anton Leonard are out, but the most damaging injury is the one which will keep out sparkplug skipper and halfback Joost van der Westhuizen. The third reason I like the Stormers is this match has no playoff repercussions - both teams are well out of the reckoning. But the incentive for many Stormers - Percy Montgomery, Breyton Paulse, Pieter Rossouw, Bobby Skinstad, Corne Krige etc - will be the desire to impress Springbok coach Harry Viljoen. Plenty of ammo then to load up on...
PLAY STORMERS AT -6.5
Other matches: The Brumbies should have far too much class and organisation for the Blues but +7.5 on the road is a bit of chalk - lean slightly to the Brumbies covering this (they have the incentive of playoff pts) but not playing. The Crusaders/Waratahs one is interesting - Waratahs nbeaten at home but it really looks as if the a$$ has dropped out of them and the Crusaders, who still believe they have a slight playoff sniff, may offer value at +2.5. The Reds try to continue their late streak tomorrow v the Highlanders; will look at that game tomorrow.
AFL)
Just one play for today; have 3 lined up for Sun (DU time).
Fremantle v Melbourne, Subiaco Oval, Perth, 19:10 CST
Fremantle +6.5
Going against the grain here of most of the AFL experts in the forum. Fremantle could go one of two ways after their astounding last-quarter collapse v Brisbane, but I'm a glass half-full person
and think they'll show some spirit again. Expect Modra to be stung by the criticism of his efforts in recent weeks and to be a key factor along with Pavlich, Bandy and Bell. The Demons won a match against the Bulldogs they threatened to lose after being up by over 40 in the secodn quarter and the loss of Farmer thru a hamstring injury is a reasonable blow. At home, I like the dogs to sneak one here.
PLAY FREMANTLE +6.5
GLTA
AFL: 8-5 (61.54%)
NRL: 22-20 (52.38%)
SUPER 12: 22-10 (68.75%)
OVERALL: 52-35 (59.77%)
Super 12)
Was a little wary of the Super 12 this weekend prior to last night's game - now I'm very wary.
The desire to make the playoffs will put past from and covers out the window to a fair extent; shown by the Chiefs' outstanding display against the 'Canes. And the lines this week seem very accurate. So I'll concentrate on one play and give some thoughts on the other games for those keen on playing them.
Bulls v Stormers, Minolta Loftus Stadium, Pretoria, 22:30 CST
Bulls +6.5
Have the Bulls been on the piss all week since recording their first win of the season last weekend v the bungling Blues? Hope so, but even if they've been stone-cold sober I see them as a go against this time. There are several factors in our favour for a play on the Stormers, despite them being road dogs. The gulf in class between these two outfits is vast - while the Bulls continue to give plenty of effort, there really is a lack of top-class skills for them to a) score regularly, and b) perform for 80 minutes. The Stormers were flattered by their win over the Chiefs at home last weekend but did show how dangerous they could be even when living off scraps off possession. The Bulls also have key absences thru injury - first-fibe Boeta Wessels and impressive No8 Anton Leonard are out, but the most damaging injury is the one which will keep out sparkplug skipper and halfback Joost van der Westhuizen. The third reason I like the Stormers is this match has no playoff repercussions - both teams are well out of the reckoning. But the incentive for many Stormers - Percy Montgomery, Breyton Paulse, Pieter Rossouw, Bobby Skinstad, Corne Krige etc - will be the desire to impress Springbok coach Harry Viljoen. Plenty of ammo then to load up on...
PLAY STORMERS AT -6.5
Other matches: The Brumbies should have far too much class and organisation for the Blues but +7.5 on the road is a bit of chalk - lean slightly to the Brumbies covering this (they have the incentive of playoff pts) but not playing. The Crusaders/Waratahs one is interesting - Waratahs nbeaten at home but it really looks as if the a$$ has dropped out of them and the Crusaders, who still believe they have a slight playoff sniff, may offer value at +2.5. The Reds try to continue their late streak tomorrow v the Highlanders; will look at that game tomorrow.
AFL)
Just one play for today; have 3 lined up for Sun (DU time).
Fremantle v Melbourne, Subiaco Oval, Perth, 19:10 CST
Fremantle +6.5
Going against the grain here of most of the AFL experts in the forum. Fremantle could go one of two ways after their astounding last-quarter collapse v Brisbane, but I'm a glass half-full person
PLAY FREMANTLE +6.5
GLTA
