My thoughts initially but after looking into it more, Toledo does have a first time head coach, Campbell, although he is their offensive coordinator so offense may not be affected much but they did lose two other assistant coaches which he hasn't had time to replace. Think this has some affect on them, just a different game preparation. I think Toledo may have problems with the triple option from Air Force, it will be new to them.
Air Force, they did lose a team manager in a car accident earlier this month so they may be emotionally charged up. They played Boise and Wyoming pretty tough this year and I think they have faced tougher opponents than Toledo has. Obvious concern is their defense against Toledo's balanced attack.
I might lean toward air force getting the fg but good luck.