Tonight's Strategy (Pitt-UM)

[releasedahounds]

First time poster here...

Just got this board address from a friend and thought I would run my thoughts on tonights game by the group.

With the spread anywhere from 20-21 and the total at 50, I think that the best way to attack this game is to make 2 equivalent wagers. One on Pitt, one on the Over.

If you lose the Over, it means that the Pitt bet has a good chance to cover.

If you lose the Pitt bet, it means that there is a good chance that UM whitewashed 'em and the game should go over the total.

In esssence, if Pitt scores 17 points, you cannot lose both and unless Miami lights them up, you have a good shot at hitting BOTH bets. The only way you lose BOTH is if Miami comes out on fire, then shuts it down, covering the spread but leaving the total under. Even in a Miami blowout, you have a good shot at the backdoor over.

Anyways, there's my 2 cents...Any thoughts????

 

[gjn23]

As always, every game has a maximum or minimum threshold for points by either team for two seperate bets.

20/50 equates to 35-15 Miami. If you feel that Pit can score at least 16 points you can't lose both the over/pit bets. I usually love these type of bets, more so in college (comes up rarely in NFL) and like my threshold around 16 or lower.

However SC vs Fla fir that bill last weekend and one would have lost both. 28-7 Final. ( I think spread was 15/42). All SC needed was 13 in this scenaio and couldn't get it.

Winners that come to mind this year and last: Texans at Eagles,
Pitt at Va Tech, Viking at Packers, Clowns at Packers

Push: Stanford/SC

What I've found this type of bet; you will win both 50%, push 40 and lose both 10%. Not a bad gamble.

 

[IX_Bender]

Hurricanes beat their past 20 opponents by an average score of 46.2 to 10.9.

 

[IX_Bender]

So, the question you pose is...

"Can Pitt score 16 points and secure a lost juice worst case scenario"

I dont know.


Will the Pitt team that crushed what I thought was a good VT run d two weeks ago for 275 yards be at the stadium tonight?

Or will it be the team that last suited up and ran for a shameful 86 yards vs. a Temple team that normally surrenders 150 ypg.

This is the crux of the ball game IMHO. Not Dorsey, Rutherford, Johnson, or Fitzgerald.

If there is a weakness to Miami, it is their 71st ranked run defense, but Pitt is the type of team that could be crushed by a holding call putting them in a 2nd and long position. Lots of homework to be done

BTW- Welcome to the forum hounds.

 

[releasedahounds]

Thanks...

Thanks...

I appreciate the feedback gentlemen...

In the end, I am all in on the Pitt Over of 16. I think that against the UM Rush Defense, this team should play inspired enough to earn between 10 and 20 points, and with the chance at a runaway, the backdoor TD is a good possibility to get Pitt over 16 should they get blasted early and only have earned 10 against the first string.

Thanks again for the angle analysis on the "threshold".

Good Luck All!

 

[monkey]

yea

yea

I was thinking in the same ball park myself pitt+20 Over 50

or maybe tease it pitt +27 over 43 :shrug: