I am new to this forum but have been handicapping for a few years now. I enjoy reading most of your handicapping views and hope to contribute some ideas to you all. Its my belief that if you look to pick an NHL game to go over the total, the visiting team must be able to score and have some players who can put the puck in the net. When a team on the road can score, it puts a lot of pressure on the home team to also score if they plan on winning in front of the home crowd. Of course you need to figure out what teams meet this criteria. In tonights game I like Toronto to put that type of pressure on Edmonton.
During the last three games that each team has played, the toal has gone over 5, in 5 of the last six games they played. During their last three games Toronto has taken an average of 28 shots per game and allowed 31 shots on goal. The Oilers have taken an average of 28 shots on goal while allowing 22. What is interesting is that both team are struggling with the power play. In the last three games Toronto is 1 of 14 on power plays and Edmonton is 2 of 12. Well, I hate to say their due, but both teams should get some power play chances tonight and hopefully convert a couple to raise that power play percentage average up a little and of course help my cause.
Edmonton should be able to convert on its power play because Toronto is near the bottom of the league in penality killing. As a matter-of-fact, their defenseas a whole has been sub-par this season. The Mapleleafs don't appear to be real good on the blueline and the Oilers should get some good scoring chances. On the other side of the coin, Toronto's offense has been scoring more on the rush this season making them more dangerous than last year. I expect to see a speed game between the two teams with plenty of shots on net.
I noticed both goalies, in each of their last three starts, are not very hot. Maybe steay, average, but not spectacular. Will they both happen to get hot on this very same night? I hope not. I'm betting against it. I also noticed that four of the last five games between these two teams has gone under. However, this is a Toronto team that is playing slightly different on both offense and defense compared to last year. Also, Edmonton games have gone over the total in four out of the last five.
I don't like going over 5 1/2 very often, but the price is right at +105, along with the circumstances. The key will be to see if Toronto can score them needed 2 or 3 goals needed to pressure Edmonton at home. We should be able to tell early in this game if my thinking is correct. Keys to look for include Offensive pressure-shots on goal; conversion on power plays; continued average goal tending by at least one of the goalies. Remember, when or lose, its only one play during a long hockey season. Lets see what happens. Any comments??
During the last three games that each team has played, the toal has gone over 5, in 5 of the last six games they played. During their last three games Toronto has taken an average of 28 shots per game and allowed 31 shots on goal. The Oilers have taken an average of 28 shots on goal while allowing 22. What is interesting is that both team are struggling with the power play. In the last three games Toronto is 1 of 14 on power plays and Edmonton is 2 of 12. Well, I hate to say their due, but both teams should get some power play chances tonight and hopefully convert a couple to raise that power play percentage average up a little and of course help my cause.
Edmonton should be able to convert on its power play because Toronto is near the bottom of the league in penality killing. As a matter-of-fact, their defenseas a whole has been sub-par this season. The Mapleleafs don't appear to be real good on the blueline and the Oilers should get some good scoring chances. On the other side of the coin, Toronto's offense has been scoring more on the rush this season making them more dangerous than last year. I expect to see a speed game between the two teams with plenty of shots on net.
I noticed both goalies, in each of their last three starts, are not very hot. Maybe steay, average, but not spectacular. Will they both happen to get hot on this very same night? I hope not. I'm betting against it. I also noticed that four of the last five games between these two teams has gone under. However, this is a Toronto team that is playing slightly different on both offense and defense compared to last year. Also, Edmonton games have gone over the total in four out of the last five.
I don't like going over 5 1/2 very often, but the price is right at +105, along with the circumstances. The key will be to see if Toronto can score them needed 2 or 3 goals needed to pressure Edmonton at home. We should be able to tell early in this game if my thinking is correct. Keys to look for include Offensive pressure-shots on goal; conversion on power plays; continued average goal tending by at least one of the goalies. Remember, when or lose, its only one play during a long hockey season. Lets see what happens. Any comments??
