Toronto vs Buffalo

Frogy

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This is the one i'll be watching tonight.
I'm getting so much from you guys latelly, that i thaught i might contribute in my way. Hoppefully this will come thru.
Buffalo has been horrible lately but has been giving only 22 shut on goal per game in last 10 games and that is for me is a key number in this coming match up. On the other side you have a Toronto team, which has an average (whit out 2 highs and 2 lows) of 29.5 shut in last 10 games.
This is going to be a game in which Toronto should average about 25 shut on goal and considering their effeciancy ratio of .09 in the last 10 games this should make for not more than 3 goals, 2 is looking more realistic in this case; Biron has a .904 average.

One thing we have to consider is that the last game against Florida represented the Maple Leafs' most dominant performance of the season. Can they make this two in a row, well that?s simply not the kind of leaf team we have seen this year. Toronto has only scored more than 3 goals once in last 6 outing and that was in the last game.

Defense hasn?t been a problem in recent games for Buffalo its just that offense is not producing the clutch goals. The Sabres simply can't score.
Connolly scored one goal in 13 games, Vyacheslav Kozlovhas no goals in his past 12 games after netting five in seven games last month.
The Sabres almost certainly expect more out of Chris Gratton (three goals in 21 games), while sniper Miroslav had not much success lately.
Coaches and players had a dressing room meeting in their latest attempt to stem a four-game losing skid and a 3-7-0 record in their last 10 games

I really don?t like buffalo lately and I just wont touch them until they show me better then what they have done lately. Even if the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings I just can take a side in this one. One thing is that 5 of the last 6 games against each other have gone under and the Leafs on the road are 1 over for 6 under. Sabres staying out off the pen box lately should help the total to go under. The Biron?s goals-against average sports a 2.23 mark, just marginally better than Leafs' Curtis Joseph at 2.24. Two good goally, two offensive that just wont produce, a team meeting yesterday to remember the trap system: for me that looks like an under play and a small lean toward Buffalo

My play UNDER 5.
Good luck
 

Chenker

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nice write up Frogy-

For what it is worth this is the only total play that was generated by my system today. The only reason why I am not playing this total as of yet is that I have been out for the last 5 days and I have not been following how the system has worked over that time span. But I definitely agree that this is a strong play. The Pitt/Vanc under was also close to being a play.

Good luck....
 

MadJack

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SOLD! i'm in! good luck!
 

MrMoney

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Additional info from Vegas Insider:

The Matchup
TORONTO (12- 4- 2- 3) AT BUFFALO ( 8-12- 1- 1) 7:35 p.m. ET
Toronto has captured three of its last four games, including Monday's 5-1 pounding of the Panthers as a $3.00 home favorite. The recent success has enabled the Maple Leafs to move into first place in the Northeast Division, four points ahead of Boston and five ahead of Ottawa. The Maple Leafs collected a two-year high of 45 shots on goal against Panthers goalie Trevor Kidd. Mats Sundin notched a pair of goals to lead the offense, while Tie Domi, Robert Reichel and Bryan McCabe each lit the lamp. Toronto extended its unbeaten streak at home to seven games at 6- 0-1 by limiting the Panthers to just 18 shots on goal. Pat Quinn's troops are 5-2-1-3 on enemy ice this season, despite scoring and allowing an identical average of 2.5 goals per game. The 'under' is 6-1-4 in Toronto's 11 road dates and 4-1 in the last five meetings with Buffalo. Oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Toronto as a $1.15 road favorite, with the total set at five 'under' (minus $1.25). The Sabres suffered their fourth consecutive loss Monday when Atlanta handed them a 3-2 reversal. Buffalo closed as a $2.40 road favorite, with the combined five goals ducking 'under' the closing 5 1/2-goal total. It was sweet revenge for an Atlanta team that had suffered an 8-0 loss to these same Sabres on Nov. 8. In addition, Atlanta entered the game on a 10-game winless streak (0-9-1). Buffalo's Tim Connolly tied the game on a penalty shot with just over 13 minutes remaining in the game, but Atlanta's Tony Hrkac scored just 16 seconds later for the game- winning tally. Martin Biron saved 22 of 25 shots, but saw his record slip to 8-10-1. The 'under' has appeared in Buffalo's last three efforts. Last year's four-game season series with Toronto concluded with each team winning once and two games ending in a tie. Though Lindy Ruff's crew is outscoring the opposition at home by an average of 2.8 to 2.2, it is just 6-6-1-0 at HSBC Arena.
 

Frogy

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Schwab in goal for toronto
wish i had knew before
taking buff and just hope for not to many goals.
that 5 doesn't look has good, ho well whats done is done...
 

Frogy

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This one looks over to me.
Glad i took Buffalo after knowing that Cujo was not in the net.
Just wish i had this info when i did my work on this one.
This is frustrating but at least Buffalo will cover for the lost on total.
One lesson i learned(again) is not to play a game untill i get goally confirmation.
good night
 
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