found this at another site, quite interesting
?ve got this one at 45.5, right when it started sliding down, but I would be willing to play it at anything above 44 (key number). I?m grading it at 45, because that?s what the O/U is currently at some of the ?square? books, while the ?sharper? ones have it at 44.5 now. I?ll discuss this early line-movement a little later in my write-up, as well as some potential strategies as to how and when to bet the total. Also, this is my only play in the Super Bowl. I?m going to break down both teams below, and will offer some thoughts on the side, but in the end just couldn?t find an ?angle? and/or any ?value? in backing either squad in this one. Any and all thoughts on my selection, as well as if you feel one side clearly has an advantage over the other, are welcome. Let?s break this ?sucker? down:
As is my custom in the playoffs, I like to compare ?relative-strengths? of each team, which takes into the account the strength of their opponents, thus providing a pretty good way of comparing the 2 squads with one another.
Steelers O: 23.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.0
Variance: +2.9
Steelers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.5
Variance: +6.2
Total Variance: +9.1
As I?ve talked about in previous threads, Steelers have a ?superior? defense and an above average offense. Their total variance of +9.1 is one of the highest in the league. Whose is the highest you might wonder? Well, that actually would be the Packers:
Packers O: 25.2 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.7
Variance: +3.5
Packers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 22.4
Variance: +7.1
Total Variance: +10.6
Green Bay has the highest ?total variance? in the league when looking at ?relative-strengths?, and it?s no wonder that they?re a -2.5 point favorites going into the Big Game. That being said, both of these teams are very similar to one another. The key to note here, are the ?relative-strengths? of the 2 defenses. These are the best 2 defensive teams in the league, and they?ll be going against one another on SuperBowl Sunday.
Let?s quickly take a look at a few other statistics that help differentiate teams for us. From the standpoint of ?efficiency?, Steelers average 14.1 YPPT (Yards Per PoinT) on offense and give up 17.6 YPPT on defense. Obviously both their offense and defense are very efficient. (League average is around 15.5 for both). Packers average 14.3 YPPT on offense, and hold their opponents to 19.9 YPPT on defense. The 19.9 YPPT on defense is the best in the league. Both of these defenses are truly elite, and the offenses are clearly above average when it comes to execution and putting points on the board.
Let?s take a look at some basic statistics. Pittsburgh averages 225 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa (Passing Yards per attempt) which ranks #2 in the league. Green Bay averages 258 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa, tied for #2 in the league. Running the ball, Pittsburgh averages 120 RYpg @ 4.1 RYpa, #18 in the NFL. Packers average 100 RYpg @ 3.8 RYpa, good for #25 in the NFL. Here we see that both teams are more efficient at passing the ball. Pittsburgh runs the ball a little better than the Packers, and they clearly have a better player at the RB position. Mendenhall is a proven running back, who is coming off a terrific performance against the Jets defense. Starks, Packers? primary rusher in the playoffs, has been very mediocre in the past 2 games, after his ?break-out? performance against the Eagles. In 47 carries in the 2 games since, he?s averaging 2.98 yards-per-carry for a total of 140 yards rushing. Clearly, Steelers have the advantage on the ground here.
Defensively, Pittsburgh gives up 214 PYpg @ 6.3 PYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 194 PYpg @ 6.5 PYpa, ranking #7. Both of these teams have elite pass-defenses. Green Bay does it with 3 Pro-Bowlers in their secondary who are all terrific playmakers, while Pittsburgh applies tremendous pressure on the quarterback with their front 7, disguising some of their weakness from their back-4. Obviously Polamalu is a difference maker, but the rest of the Steelers defensive backs are pretty average. When it comes to stopping the run though, there is no one that can even compare to the Steelers. They give up 62.8 RYpg @ 3.0 RYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 115 RYpg @ 4.7 RYpa, which is #28 in the NFL. At first look, you can say that Pittsburgh has tremendous advantage in rushing defense but I would argue that it?s not true. In the playoffs (3 games), this Packers run-D has held its opponents to an average of 20 carries per game, 70 yards, and 3.5 rushing-yards average. And these are not just any teams, but 3 teams (PHI, ATL, CHI) that like to run the ball.
Looking at all the relevant stats, it?s really difficult to distinguish between the Steelers and the Packers. From my perspective, Pittsburgh has the advantage in the running game, while Packers have a slightly better passing attack. Steelers have the better run D, while the Packers secondary is stouter. Both of these Special-Teams are nothing special, and I don?t expect them to be ?difference-makers? in the SuperBowl. To me both teams are very even. From the ?statistical? perspective I can?t really pin-point one area, where one team has a CLEAR advantage over the other. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are elite. All the stats we?ve looked at, pretty much confirm that. Let?s break-down potential game-plans for both teams to see if we can find an ?angle? to exploit.
I truly feel that the only way to beat Pittsburgh Steelers is through the pass. You will not be able to run the ball on them, and for a team like the Packers that have struggled running the ball all year long (One good James Starks performance @ Philly doesn?t count) it?s going to be nearly impossible. Fortunately for the Packers, they have the right QB and the right WR?s to execute a pass-heavy game-plan in this one. Two of Pittsburgh?s 4 losses, came against teams that executed a pass-heavy game-plan against them: New England and New Orleans. Those were the only 2 instances when teams threw for more than 260 yards on them. I believe that the Packers will try to copy this strategy, and will come out throwing the ball. Will they be successful? Sure?but to a degree. New England and New Orleans have two of the top 5 Offensive Lines in the game. Packers? O-line is in the bottom 10. Therefore, Green Bay will need to keep back extra blockers in order to protect Rodgers. More blockers, means there are fewer receivers running routes. Fewer receivers, means it is easier for the secondary/linebackers to cover them. In addition, we all know about Steelers? ability to rush the quarterback. They?ve led the league in sacks with 48 on the season and have 7 in 2 games in the playoffs. The Packers gave up 38 sacks this season, 11th most in the NFL. When you have a rookie tackle playing on your O-line, mistakes will be made and it will put added pressure on the rest of the blockers. I expect Pittsburgh to utilize an array of blitzes, offer a number of various looks, and put pressure on Rodgers throughout the day. If Green Bay can?t get any running game going at all, then it will be even tougher for them to move the ball as the game goes on. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh is primarily a 3-4 defense. Against 3-4 defenses this year, Packers struggled to put points on the board: Miami and Washington were both close OT losses and against the Jets they scored only 9 points. They were successful against the Cowboys, putting up 45 points on them, but who hasn?t this season? Also, keep in mind that 2 weeks off gives Troy Polamalu extra time to heal-up. As average as Steelers corner-backs are individually, Polamalu truly makes the unit stronger as a whole. Overall, I feel that the Steelers D will be able to contain this Green Bay attack.
When Steelers have the ball, I expect their game-plan to be a bit different. They are going to try and establish their running game here. Pittsburgh does not want to get caught up in a shoot-out with the Packers. Long, sustained drives that eat up a lot of clock is their best strategy to win this one. And the way to get it done is by having success in the run game. I?ve briefly discussed Mendenhall earlier, but want to emphasize the fact that he had 121 yards while averaging 4.5 yard-per-carry against one of the BEST run-defenses in the league in the Jets. I was impressed. And if I was impressed, than you can bet that the Packers have noticed as well ? Well, I expect Green Bay to emphasize stopping the running game in this one. This unit has been doing a tremendous job of doing just that in the playoffs, and I don?t see any reason why they shouldn?t have success against the Packers. Keep in mind that BJ Raji has been a ?monster? lately, and Pouncey?s ankle injury, will most certainly make it even easier to penetrate through the middle of this Steelers? O-line. (I?m assuming that he?ll play of course). Even if the Steelers have some success early, I?m sure Green Bay will be able to bring another man into the box, and let their superior secondary go 1-on-1 with Pittsburgh?s receivers. Tramon Williams has the speed to keep up with Mike Wallace while Woodson shouldn?t have too many problems with Hines Ward. I was very surprised with how poorly Wallace played in the Jets game: 1 catch for 6 yards. Maybe he?s just not ready to face ?elite? corners on a consistent basis. In any case, I feel this Packers D matches up very well with Pittsburgh?s offense. I?ve mentioned earlier that Steelers led the league in sacks with 48, well Packers were a close 2nd, with 47 sacks on the season. They have 10 sacks in 3 games in the playoffs. At the same time, Pittsburgh was #8 in the NFL in sacks allowed, with 43. Pittsburgh?s O-line is just as mediocre as Green Bay?s, and with Pouncey?s injury will be even weaker. I expect Packers pass-rush to be able to get to Big Ben, and if he?s holding on to the ball too long, like he typically does, then it will add a sack or 2 to the final total. Why am I focusing so much on ?sacks?? Well, sacks are typically ?drive-killers?. Will the Packers completely stop this Steelers offense? No, of course not. But I feel like they will most definitely be able to contain it. Pittsburgh likes to make ?big-plays? on offense, but Green Bay is build to prevent those. Their 19.9 YPPT efficiency metric confirms that. Once Pittsburgh is forced to go on long drives in this one, a devastating ?sack? at any point is very likely to end those most of the time.
I think it?s pretty clear that I feel that both of these teams matchup very well against one another. Neither has elite O-lines, while both have elite defenses. Both QB?s are able to make plays, but are also prone to holding on to the ball a bit too long at times, letting the pressure get to them. Typically in the NFL, when 2 teams matchup well with one another, it leads to low-scoring, tight games. I do expect this game to be one of those. Most people see these 2 teams as high-scoring, offensive juggernauts. Well I would disagree. I see these squads as having elite defensive units, with above-average offenses. Keep in mind that the Packers have allowed 15 ppg on defense, #2 in the league, while the Steelers gave up 14.5 ppg, leading the NFL. That?s a combined 29.5 ppg given up by both of these teams. Offensively, Green Bay averaged 24.3 ppg (#10) and Pittsburgh 23.4 ppg (#12). (Talk about being similar!). That?s a total of 47.7 ppg combined. The O/U in this one is listed at 45. Hmmmm?. Even if we think about this in ?simple? terms, we have 2 teams that put up 47.7 points while holding their opponents to 29.5 combined. If the O/U is at 45, then the offenses are +2.7 points better than this #, while the defenses are at +15.5. Yes, I know that things are just not ?that simple?, but I?m just trying to show that the posted total just intuitively seems to be too high.
Let?s take a look at a number of other factors that favor the UNDER in this one:
?ve got this one at 45.5, right when it started sliding down, but I would be willing to play it at anything above 44 (key number). I?m grading it at 45, because that?s what the O/U is currently at some of the ?square? books, while the ?sharper? ones have it at 44.5 now. I?ll discuss this early line-movement a little later in my write-up, as well as some potential strategies as to how and when to bet the total. Also, this is my only play in the Super Bowl. I?m going to break down both teams below, and will offer some thoughts on the side, but in the end just couldn?t find an ?angle? and/or any ?value? in backing either squad in this one. Any and all thoughts on my selection, as well as if you feel one side clearly has an advantage over the other, are welcome. Let?s break this ?sucker? down:
As is my custom in the playoffs, I like to compare ?relative-strengths? of each team, which takes into the account the strength of their opponents, thus providing a pretty good way of comparing the 2 squads with one another.
Steelers O: 23.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.0
Variance: +2.9
Steelers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.5
Variance: +6.2
Total Variance: +9.1
As I?ve talked about in previous threads, Steelers have a ?superior? defense and an above average offense. Their total variance of +9.1 is one of the highest in the league. Whose is the highest you might wonder? Well, that actually would be the Packers:
Packers O: 25.2 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.7
Variance: +3.5
Packers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 22.4
Variance: +7.1
Total Variance: +10.6
Green Bay has the highest ?total variance? in the league when looking at ?relative-strengths?, and it?s no wonder that they?re a -2.5 point favorites going into the Big Game. That being said, both of these teams are very similar to one another. The key to note here, are the ?relative-strengths? of the 2 defenses. These are the best 2 defensive teams in the league, and they?ll be going against one another on SuperBowl Sunday.
Let?s quickly take a look at a few other statistics that help differentiate teams for us. From the standpoint of ?efficiency?, Steelers average 14.1 YPPT (Yards Per PoinT) on offense and give up 17.6 YPPT on defense. Obviously both their offense and defense are very efficient. (League average is around 15.5 for both). Packers average 14.3 YPPT on offense, and hold their opponents to 19.9 YPPT on defense. The 19.9 YPPT on defense is the best in the league. Both of these defenses are truly elite, and the offenses are clearly above average when it comes to execution and putting points on the board.
Let?s take a look at some basic statistics. Pittsburgh averages 225 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa (Passing Yards per attempt) which ranks #2 in the league. Green Bay averages 258 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa, tied for #2 in the league. Running the ball, Pittsburgh averages 120 RYpg @ 4.1 RYpa, #18 in the NFL. Packers average 100 RYpg @ 3.8 RYpa, good for #25 in the NFL. Here we see that both teams are more efficient at passing the ball. Pittsburgh runs the ball a little better than the Packers, and they clearly have a better player at the RB position. Mendenhall is a proven running back, who is coming off a terrific performance against the Jets defense. Starks, Packers? primary rusher in the playoffs, has been very mediocre in the past 2 games, after his ?break-out? performance against the Eagles. In 47 carries in the 2 games since, he?s averaging 2.98 yards-per-carry for a total of 140 yards rushing. Clearly, Steelers have the advantage on the ground here.
Defensively, Pittsburgh gives up 214 PYpg @ 6.3 PYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 194 PYpg @ 6.5 PYpa, ranking #7. Both of these teams have elite pass-defenses. Green Bay does it with 3 Pro-Bowlers in their secondary who are all terrific playmakers, while Pittsburgh applies tremendous pressure on the quarterback with their front 7, disguising some of their weakness from their back-4. Obviously Polamalu is a difference maker, but the rest of the Steelers defensive backs are pretty average. When it comes to stopping the run though, there is no one that can even compare to the Steelers. They give up 62.8 RYpg @ 3.0 RYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 115 RYpg @ 4.7 RYpa, which is #28 in the NFL. At first look, you can say that Pittsburgh has tremendous advantage in rushing defense but I would argue that it?s not true. In the playoffs (3 games), this Packers run-D has held its opponents to an average of 20 carries per game, 70 yards, and 3.5 rushing-yards average. And these are not just any teams, but 3 teams (PHI, ATL, CHI) that like to run the ball.
Looking at all the relevant stats, it?s really difficult to distinguish between the Steelers and the Packers. From my perspective, Pittsburgh has the advantage in the running game, while Packers have a slightly better passing attack. Steelers have the better run D, while the Packers secondary is stouter. Both of these Special-Teams are nothing special, and I don?t expect them to be ?difference-makers? in the SuperBowl. To me both teams are very even. From the ?statistical? perspective I can?t really pin-point one area, where one team has a CLEAR advantage over the other. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are elite. All the stats we?ve looked at, pretty much confirm that. Let?s break-down potential game-plans for both teams to see if we can find an ?angle? to exploit.
I truly feel that the only way to beat Pittsburgh Steelers is through the pass. You will not be able to run the ball on them, and for a team like the Packers that have struggled running the ball all year long (One good James Starks performance @ Philly doesn?t count) it?s going to be nearly impossible. Fortunately for the Packers, they have the right QB and the right WR?s to execute a pass-heavy game-plan in this one. Two of Pittsburgh?s 4 losses, came against teams that executed a pass-heavy game-plan against them: New England and New Orleans. Those were the only 2 instances when teams threw for more than 260 yards on them. I believe that the Packers will try to copy this strategy, and will come out throwing the ball. Will they be successful? Sure?but to a degree. New England and New Orleans have two of the top 5 Offensive Lines in the game. Packers? O-line is in the bottom 10. Therefore, Green Bay will need to keep back extra blockers in order to protect Rodgers. More blockers, means there are fewer receivers running routes. Fewer receivers, means it is easier for the secondary/linebackers to cover them. In addition, we all know about Steelers? ability to rush the quarterback. They?ve led the league in sacks with 48 on the season and have 7 in 2 games in the playoffs. The Packers gave up 38 sacks this season, 11th most in the NFL. When you have a rookie tackle playing on your O-line, mistakes will be made and it will put added pressure on the rest of the blockers. I expect Pittsburgh to utilize an array of blitzes, offer a number of various looks, and put pressure on Rodgers throughout the day. If Green Bay can?t get any running game going at all, then it will be even tougher for them to move the ball as the game goes on. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh is primarily a 3-4 defense. Against 3-4 defenses this year, Packers struggled to put points on the board: Miami and Washington were both close OT losses and against the Jets they scored only 9 points. They were successful against the Cowboys, putting up 45 points on them, but who hasn?t this season? Also, keep in mind that 2 weeks off gives Troy Polamalu extra time to heal-up. As average as Steelers corner-backs are individually, Polamalu truly makes the unit stronger as a whole. Overall, I feel that the Steelers D will be able to contain this Green Bay attack.
When Steelers have the ball, I expect their game-plan to be a bit different. They are going to try and establish their running game here. Pittsburgh does not want to get caught up in a shoot-out with the Packers. Long, sustained drives that eat up a lot of clock is their best strategy to win this one. And the way to get it done is by having success in the run game. I?ve briefly discussed Mendenhall earlier, but want to emphasize the fact that he had 121 yards while averaging 4.5 yard-per-carry against one of the BEST run-defenses in the league in the Jets. I was impressed. And if I was impressed, than you can bet that the Packers have noticed as well ? Well, I expect Green Bay to emphasize stopping the running game in this one. This unit has been doing a tremendous job of doing just that in the playoffs, and I don?t see any reason why they shouldn?t have success against the Packers. Keep in mind that BJ Raji has been a ?monster? lately, and Pouncey?s ankle injury, will most certainly make it even easier to penetrate through the middle of this Steelers? O-line. (I?m assuming that he?ll play of course). Even if the Steelers have some success early, I?m sure Green Bay will be able to bring another man into the box, and let their superior secondary go 1-on-1 with Pittsburgh?s receivers. Tramon Williams has the speed to keep up with Mike Wallace while Woodson shouldn?t have too many problems with Hines Ward. I was very surprised with how poorly Wallace played in the Jets game: 1 catch for 6 yards. Maybe he?s just not ready to face ?elite? corners on a consistent basis. In any case, I feel this Packers D matches up very well with Pittsburgh?s offense. I?ve mentioned earlier that Steelers led the league in sacks with 48, well Packers were a close 2nd, with 47 sacks on the season. They have 10 sacks in 3 games in the playoffs. At the same time, Pittsburgh was #8 in the NFL in sacks allowed, with 43. Pittsburgh?s O-line is just as mediocre as Green Bay?s, and with Pouncey?s injury will be even weaker. I expect Packers pass-rush to be able to get to Big Ben, and if he?s holding on to the ball too long, like he typically does, then it will add a sack or 2 to the final total. Why am I focusing so much on ?sacks?? Well, sacks are typically ?drive-killers?. Will the Packers completely stop this Steelers offense? No, of course not. But I feel like they will most definitely be able to contain it. Pittsburgh likes to make ?big-plays? on offense, but Green Bay is build to prevent those. Their 19.9 YPPT efficiency metric confirms that. Once Pittsburgh is forced to go on long drives in this one, a devastating ?sack? at any point is very likely to end those most of the time.
I think it?s pretty clear that I feel that both of these teams matchup very well against one another. Neither has elite O-lines, while both have elite defenses. Both QB?s are able to make plays, but are also prone to holding on to the ball a bit too long at times, letting the pressure get to them. Typically in the NFL, when 2 teams matchup well with one another, it leads to low-scoring, tight games. I do expect this game to be one of those. Most people see these 2 teams as high-scoring, offensive juggernauts. Well I would disagree. I see these squads as having elite defensive units, with above-average offenses. Keep in mind that the Packers have allowed 15 ppg on defense, #2 in the league, while the Steelers gave up 14.5 ppg, leading the NFL. That?s a combined 29.5 ppg given up by both of these teams. Offensively, Green Bay averaged 24.3 ppg (#10) and Pittsburgh 23.4 ppg (#12). (Talk about being similar!). That?s a total of 47.7 ppg combined. The O/U in this one is listed at 45. Hmmmm?. Even if we think about this in ?simple? terms, we have 2 teams that put up 47.7 points while holding their opponents to 29.5 combined. If the O/U is at 45, then the offenses are +2.7 points better than this #, while the defenses are at +15.5. Yes, I know that things are just not ?that simple?, but I?m just trying to show that the posted total just intuitively seems to be too high.
Let?s take a look at a number of other factors that favor the UNDER in this one:
