My preview:
Three years ago David Duval won this event from Justin Leonard; it may be purely coincidence but in 1999 the Mercedes was moved to the Plantation course and Gabriel Hjertstedt won this event from Tommy Armour and last year Jim Carter won it from Chris DiMarco and Jean van de Velde. What a fall in the fortunes of an event and this year it hosts the Year 2000 Losers' event!
The field is weakened by the simultaneous hosting of the Mercedes Championship and by the Southern Hemisphere hosting of the World Matchplay last week, but it does offer the prospect of seeing some of last year's Buy.com hopefuls. Phil Mickelson and Lee Janzen both share the Tucson Open as their maiden Tour wins, maybe this will be the springboard for another star.
For the first time the event is split for the first two rounds between the Gold/Green course at the Omni Tucson Resort and The Gallery course, and what it is! The Resort course is a tight course with small Bermuda grass greens; the Gallery course is an open course with Bent grass greens. Very strange combination! The winner should therefore be a good putter.
Two of the three picks are indeed good putters, though maybe surprisingly all three were involved in Melbourne last week. Two of them were only involved for a short time and for the other it was a confidence-boosting week so with the time difference being beneficial, the Melbourne factor is not deemed to be too harmful this week and anyway, anyone with the credentials to play in a "World" event will look good in this field.
The three picks are Toru Taniguchi, Steve Flesch and Tim Herron. Taniguchi was a favorite pick last week and constantly delivered the goods. He is coming into this event having soundly defeated Ernie Els to finish 3rd and has been in a great run of form on the Japan Tour. This may be his first event on American soil, but his putting is as good as it gets and that should very important this week.
The other two have at least played this course. Flesch has finished 13th and 7th on his last two visits and boasts all-round stats that would be more appropriate at the Mercedes. In a weak field, he is an obvious favorite, but there are good odds on offer at this stage of the season. Tim Herron's stats would not point to him being particularly good in any field, but he is a local, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, and that may be a good reason why he has finished 4th and 20th in his last two visits. With the place bets paid on the first five places, I'm hopeful at least one of those will rise above the hopefuls this week.
Outright plays:
Toru Taniguchi to win e/w 50/1 @
Surrey
Steve Flesch to win e/w 20/1 @
Surrey
Tim Herron to win e/w 40/1 @
First Stake