Tour Championship (Southern Africa Tour)

Stanley

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Outright plays (1pt):

Craig Lile to win 16/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Lile failed to deliver when a selection for the Dimension Data Pro-Am, but last week he did show the form that saw him lead the South African Open after three rounds. Once again, he did most of the early running and was the 3rd round leader, but again faltered with a final round 73 to finish 5th. Against a reduced field and having finished here 3rd last year, there is a chance that this might be third time lucky and he completes the job in the final round!

Scott Dunlap to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill and BlueSq
Dunlap was a selection at 25/1 last week and promptly missed the cut. A disappointing result from a player who had finished 5th at the Nashua Masters the previous week. He did play in this event last year on this course and finished 13th, but that was largely because of a poor weekend (76-74) and he had been in 2nd place at the cut. Still a class player in this field, if he can maintain some consistency then he is very capable of winning this title.

Roger Wessels to win 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Wessels also returns to this page after finishing 15th last week. That was a rather disappointing return from an event he had been leading after a first-round 63. But with good form on this event in its three years at this course, Wessels can hopefully build on some of his form from last week and show this price to be totally incorrect.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Andrew McLardy to beat Desvonde Botes -125 @ Expekt
Botes has impressed with two runners-up finishes in the last two weeks, but has struggled on this course unlike McLardy who finished 4th two years ago. With McLardy displaying good form in all of the last four events (all top-25 finishes) and winning the Nashua Masters the week after being tipped for the Dimension Data Pro-Am, he gets the nod in this matchup.

Richard Sterne to beat Michiel Bothma -125 @ Expekt
Opposed Bothma last week and lost, but trying again. Take out his performance on his home course which was used last week and he has only had one top-20 finish since 2001. Sterne is currently playing somewhat below his best, but is by far the better player and with two top-10 finishes in the last three years here, he should have enough quality to win this matchup.

Roger Wessels to beat Jean Hugo -118 @ Expekt
With three missed cuts in five starts this year and finishes of 49th and 50th on this course, it is fairly straightforward to oppose Hugo with one of the outright selections.

Nic Henning to beat Warrick Druian -118 @ Expekt [2pts]
Opposing Druian who ended a seven-year winless drought last week. After missing the cut in eight of his last fourteen starts, snapping his irons in the parking lot at the Dimension Data Pro-Am and scoring a 10 on the 14th hole when in contention for the Nashua Masters, this was certainly a surprise victory. There is likely to be big letdown this week and having only played this course once - he finished 69th of 75 in 2001 - he will struggle to repeat any form this week. Siding with Henning who finished ahead of Druian in 2001 and finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years.
 

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3pts

Lile 7th
Dunlap 57th
Wessels 29th

When Lile and McLardy were having a head-to-head battle for the leadership during the third round and they were at least three shots ahead of the pack, it looks as though I might break my duck for outright on this Tour with a win or at very worst, a place finish. But then Lile had a double-bogey on the 11th to McLardy's birdie and it was free-fall thereafter. He finished two shots out of the places and a 0-for-18 record for this Tour was complete. Very poor!

Matchups - Final update: 3-1-0; +2.82pts

McLardy/Botes WON by 9
Sterne/Bothma WON by 5
Wessels/Hugo LOST by 1
Henning/Druian WON by 6

A narrow loss with Wessels, but otherwise a good end to some very good matchups on this Tour in 2004. Didn't manage it this week, but overall they just about managed to fully offset the embarrassing outright results.

Southern Africa final ytd
Matchups: 16-5; +18.39pts
Outrights: 0-18; -18.00pts
 
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