TOUR Championship
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
- Jul 6, 2008
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Been away for a minute. Been following from a far, trying to pick my spots.
Fading Steve, I wish there was a tourney play, but dimes doesnt have one up yet. I paid the extra 20 cents to get the half stroke.
$62.50 $50.00 Pending 9/22/11 1:05pm PGA Golf 7119 Gary Woodland (1st Rnd) +? -125* vs Steve Stricker (1st Rnd)
Small bets, damn you Obama :mj07:
Fading Steve, I wish there was a tourney play, but dimes doesnt have one up yet. I paid the extra 20 cents to get the half stroke.
$62.50 $50.00 Pending 9/22/11 1:05pm PGA Golf 7119 Gary Woodland (1st Rnd) +? -125* vs Steve Stricker (1st Rnd)
Small bets, damn you Obama :mj07:
TOURNAMENT
BILL HAAS (-130) over KEEGAN BRADLEY
ROUND 1
GARY WOODLAND (+100) over STEVE STRICKER
:toast:
BILL HAAS (-130) over KEEGAN BRADLEY
ROUND 1
GARY WOODLAND (+100) over STEVE STRICKER
:toast:
Senden to win 33-1
72 holes
Howell over BVP -110
Kuchar over Day -110
D Johnson over Mick -120
Senden over Reavie -120
Badds over Jacobsen -110
72 holes
Howell over BVP -110
Kuchar over Day -110
D Johnson over Mick -120
Senden over Reavie -120
Badds over Jacobsen -110
Choi 20-1 win, 10-1 place, 5-1 show
Mahan 25-1 win, 12 1/2 place, 6-1 show
Dufner 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
Bradley 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
It's been a frustrating year for me. I thought with the way Tiger was playing, I was going to have a banner year. Not so. All these young guys doing so well really threw me off. When Simpson called the penalty on himself a couple of months back when the wind moved his ball on a tap in, that cost me $5000. That's the way my year went. I played Rose 2 weeks ago, and then last week I don't play him and he hits at 50-1. Ugh.
Good luck to all of you guys, and I will see you back in January when they get to Hawaii.:0008
Mahan 25-1 win, 12 1/2 place, 6-1 show
Dufner 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
Bradley 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
It's been a frustrating year for me. I thought with the way Tiger was playing, I was going to have a banner year. Not so. All these young guys doing so well really threw me off. When Simpson called the penalty on himself a couple of months back when the wind moved his ball on a tap in, that cost me $5000. That's the way my year went. I played Rose 2 weeks ago, and then last week I don't play him and he hits at 50-1. Ugh.
Good luck to all of you guys, and I will see you back in January when they get to Hawaii.:0008
1st Round Match Ups
A BADDELEY (RND 1) -110 (A BADDELEY (RND 1) vrs Y YANG (RND 1))
KJ CHOI (RND 1) -115 (KJ CHOI (RND 1) vrs P MICKELSON (RND 1))
G WOODLAND (RND 1) -110 (G WOODLAND (RND 1) vrs S STRICKER (RND 1))
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP NICK WATNEY +1600
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP KJ CHOI +2200
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PHIL MICKELSON +2000 (Pick in Year Long Contest)
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP JASON DUFNER +4000
4 Round Match Ups
N WATNEY -150 (D JOHNSON vrs N WATNEY)
A BADDELEY -125 (A BADDELEY vrs V SINGH)
A BADDELEY (RND 1) -110 (A BADDELEY (RND 1) vrs Y YANG (RND 1))
KJ CHOI (RND 1) -115 (KJ CHOI (RND 1) vrs P MICKELSON (RND 1))
G WOODLAND (RND 1) -110 (G WOODLAND (RND 1) vrs S STRICKER (RND 1))
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP NICK WATNEY +1600
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP KJ CHOI +2200
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PHIL MICKELSON +2000 (Pick in Year Long Contest)
ODDS TO WIN THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP JASON DUFNER +4000
4 Round Match Ups
N WATNEY -150 (D JOHNSON vrs N WATNEY)
A BADDELEY -125 (A BADDELEY vrs V SINGH)
Outrights:
Geoff Ogilvy(22/1) e.w.
- - That's one for sure . . . Some observations from a card-carrying Ogilvyaholic: (1) Ogilvy's misses off the tee are both left and to the right on an "equal opportunity" basis; in fact, his usual strategy is to aim for the center of the fairway off the tee, to favor his "equal opportunity" misses, and his best drives end up dead center. (2) Any significant slump in his game usually starts with his driving, although sometimes his generally superb putting and short game can overcome his driving. I was optimistic his game was trending upward when he finished 5th in the Canadian Open, where the set up featured some of the most penal driving in years. (3) Last week in Chicago he started out the week driving the ball beautifully, and just drove the ball better as the week wore on, but early in the week his iron play was uncharacteristically bad, while his putting and short game all week were nothing less than sublime; by the back nine on Sunday his iron play had caught up with the rest of his game, and I've never seen him swinging more beautifully or effortlessly than he did in the rain on Sunday. (4) Having caught the dude just right for 5 of his 7 wins (2005 Tucson, 2006 and 2009 Match Play, 2006 U.S. Open and 2009 Kapalua - missing only 2008 Doral and 2010 Kapalua - and for good measure having him this year when he finished T4 at the Masters (and was featured in two of my biggest matchup plays of the year for the 2nd and 4th rounds at Augusta) - Ogilvy looks spot on to me for this big event to conclude the season. (5) Unequivocally, I can rate my 3 strongest plays of the season as Toms(80/1) at the Players, Clarke(50/1) after the first round of the Open, and Ogilvy (22/1) for the Tour Championship. (6) After reading the second interview, it's hard not to think he gets underway by drawing a fantastic pairing with Vijay Singh. (7) Not so much the last two years, but over his career, Ogilvy has a definite CV of sustaining his spurts of good play.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=74287
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=74384
Jonathan Byrd(80/1) e.w.
- - At the start of the playoffs, one of the "talking heads" on The Golf Channel offered up Byrd as his answer to a question on someone likely to flame out quickly in the playoffs. My immediate response was "really", he's one of the longshots I have circled on my sheet to possibly go well. Keeping with that theme, he gets a shot with my cash this week.
Jason Day(18/1) e.w.
- - At the start of the playoffs I posted Jason was my pick "To Win the FedExCup". Keeping with that statement, I'm lumping on.
Nick Watney(16/1) e.w.
- - When I looked at this week's odds on Monday, I saw Watney at generally the same price as Day, and had to confess I liked Watney's chances this week better than Day's, so a value play, I guess.
David Toms(25/1) e.w.
- - I had decided to add Toms on Tuesday as my "just one more" play, and then for good measure I found out within a few hours thereafter he had just been named the recipient of the Payne Stewart Award.
Matchups:
Ogilvy(+120) over Mahan (Tournament)
Ogilvy(+115) over Snedeker (Tournament)
GL
Geoff Ogilvy(22/1) e.w.
- - That's one for sure . . . Some observations from a card-carrying Ogilvyaholic: (1) Ogilvy's misses off the tee are both left and to the right on an "equal opportunity" basis; in fact, his usual strategy is to aim for the center of the fairway off the tee, to favor his "equal opportunity" misses, and his best drives end up dead center. (2) Any significant slump in his game usually starts with his driving, although sometimes his generally superb putting and short game can overcome his driving. I was optimistic his game was trending upward when he finished 5th in the Canadian Open, where the set up featured some of the most penal driving in years. (3) Last week in Chicago he started out the week driving the ball beautifully, and just drove the ball better as the week wore on, but early in the week his iron play was uncharacteristically bad, while his putting and short game all week were nothing less than sublime; by the back nine on Sunday his iron play had caught up with the rest of his game, and I've never seen him swinging more beautifully or effortlessly than he did in the rain on Sunday. (4) Having caught the dude just right for 5 of his 7 wins (2005 Tucson, 2006 and 2009 Match Play, 2006 U.S. Open and 2009 Kapalua - missing only 2008 Doral and 2010 Kapalua - and for good measure having him this year when he finished T4 at the Masters (and was featured in two of my biggest matchup plays of the year for the 2nd and 4th rounds at Augusta) - Ogilvy looks spot on to me for this big event to conclude the season. (5) Unequivocally, I can rate my 3 strongest plays of the season as Toms(80/1) at the Players, Clarke(50/1) after the first round of the Open, and Ogilvy (22/1) for the Tour Championship. (6) After reading the second interview, it's hard not to think he gets underway by drawing a fantastic pairing with Vijay Singh. (7) Not so much the last two years, but over his career, Ogilvy has a definite CV of sustaining his spurts of good play.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=74287
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=74384
Jonathan Byrd(80/1) e.w.
- - At the start of the playoffs, one of the "talking heads" on The Golf Channel offered up Byrd as his answer to a question on someone likely to flame out quickly in the playoffs. My immediate response was "really", he's one of the longshots I have circled on my sheet to possibly go well. Keeping with that theme, he gets a shot with my cash this week.
Jason Day(18/1) e.w.
- - At the start of the playoffs I posted Jason was my pick "To Win the FedExCup". Keeping with that statement, I'm lumping on.
Nick Watney(16/1) e.w.
- - When I looked at this week's odds on Monday, I saw Watney at generally the same price as Day, and had to confess I liked Watney's chances this week better than Day's, so a value play, I guess.
David Toms(25/1) e.w.
- - I had decided to add Toms on Tuesday as my "just one more" play, and then for good measure I found out within a few hours thereafter he had just been named the recipient of the Payne Stewart Award.
Matchups:
Ogilvy(+120) over Mahan (Tournament)
Ogilvy(+115) over Snedeker (Tournament)
GL
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Round 1 play (2pts):
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Brandt Snedeker +110 @ 5Dimes
Snedeker has had the much better year and dominates the h2h record in 2011, but a large part of that is due to Ogilvy shoulder problems. He is now fully fit and with his finished of 4th in the Canadian Open and 3rd last week, he could be a contender this week. He certainly was last year when he led after the opening round. Snedeker's sole previous appearance at the Tour Championship was in 2007 - he finished last.
[unofficial rd1 system play: Choi tb Mickelson +110]
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Brandt Snedeker +110 @ 5Dimes
Snedeker has had the much better year and dominates the h2h record in 2011, but a large part of that is due to Ogilvy shoulder problems. He is now fully fit and with his finished of 4th in the Canadian Open and 3rd last week, he could be a contender this week. He certainly was last year when he led after the opening round. Snedeker's sole previous appearance at the Tour Championship was in 2007 - he finished last.
[unofficial rd1 system play: Choi tb Mickelson +110]
2nd Round Match Ups
N WATNEY (RND 2) -130 (N WATNEY (RND 2) vrs D TOMS (RND 2))
B WATSON (RND 2) -120 (B WATSON (RND 2) vrs Y YANG (RND 2))
KJ CHOI (RND 2) -110 (KJ CHOI (RND 2) vrs S STRICKER (RND 2))
J DUFNER (RND 2) -110 (K BRADLEY (RND 2) vrs J DUFNER (RND 2))
N WATNEY (RND 2) -130 (N WATNEY (RND 2) vrs D TOMS (RND 2))
B WATSON (RND 2) -120 (B WATSON (RND 2) vrs Y YANG (RND 2))
KJ CHOI (RND 2) -110 (KJ CHOI (RND 2) vrs S STRICKER (RND 2))
J DUFNER (RND 2) -110 (K BRADLEY (RND 2) vrs J DUFNER (RND 2))
Round 2 play (4pts):
Steve Stricker to beat K.J. Choi -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
It was supposed to be 3-5 days before Stricker felt the benefits of his Monday cortisone shot and, according to his interview, he noticed a significant difference in the strength in his left arm yesterday. It augurs well for today as the issue is one of stength rather than any pain in his left arm so I don't see why he can't play as well as yesterday. The last time that he was paired with Choi in the 2nd round (the Deutsche Bank Championship three weeks ago), he was a best-price -175, so this shows how much the books continue to factor in his 'injury' news into their odds. The value should be with Stricker in this situation.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Dufner tb Bradley +107; Senden tb Singh -135; Ogilvy tb Choi +100]
Steve Stricker to beat K.J. Choi -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
It was supposed to be 3-5 days before Stricker felt the benefits of his Monday cortisone shot and, according to his interview, he noticed a significant difference in the strength in his left arm yesterday. It augurs well for today as the issue is one of stength rather than any pain in his left arm so I don't see why he can't play as well as yesterday. The last time that he was paired with Choi in the 2nd round (the Deutsche Bank Championship three weeks ago), he was a best-price -175, so this shows how much the books continue to factor in his 'injury' news into their odds. The value should be with Stricker in this situation.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Dufner tb Bradley +107; Senden tb Singh -135; Ogilvy tb Choi +100]
Round 3 Match Ups
D JOHNSON (RND 3) -130 (Y YANG (RND 3) vrs D JOHNSON (RND 3))
G WOODLAND (RND 3) -130 (G WOODLAND (RND 3) vrs V SINGH (RND 3))
D TOMS (RND 3) -130 (D TOMS (RND 3) vrs S STRICKER (RND 3))
J DUFNER (RND 3) -115 (J DUFNER (RND 3) vrs F JACOBSON (RND 3))
B WATSON (RND 3) -105 (B WATSON (RND 3) vrs B HAAS (RND 3))
D JOHNSON (RND 3) -130 (Y YANG (RND 3) vrs D JOHNSON (RND 3))
G WOODLAND (RND 3) -130 (G WOODLAND (RND 3) vrs V SINGH (RND 3))
D TOMS (RND 3) -130 (D TOMS (RND 3) vrs S STRICKER (RND 3))
J DUFNER (RND 3) -115 (J DUFNER (RND 3) vrs F JACOBSON (RND 3))
B WATSON (RND 3) -105 (B WATSON (RND 3) vrs B HAAS (RND 3))
Round 4 play (4pts):
Luke Donald to beat Bill Haas -161 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
By his own admission, Donald hasn't been on top of his game this week, but he is the World #1 because he can still grind out good scores with his short game even if he isn't playing well enough to win. That said, he is still only three shots off the lead and if he does play any better from tee-to-green today, he will have a very chance of winning. Haas is also in 5th place after 54 holes, but given that he ranks 117th in Final Round Scoring Average - Donald is 2nd and averages more than three shots lower in the final round - he looks far less likely to challenge the lead today.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Kuchar tb Bradley -138; Dufner tb Bradley +125; Watney tb Singh -137; Scott tb Howell -123; Howell tb Bradley -111; Mickelson tb Jacobson -135]
Luke Donald to beat Bill Haas -161 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
By his own admission, Donald hasn't been on top of his game this week, but he is the World #1 because he can still grind out good scores with his short game even if he isn't playing well enough to win. That said, he is still only three shots off the lead and if he does play any better from tee-to-green today, he will have a very chance of winning. Haas is also in 5th place after 54 holes, but given that he ranks 117th in Final Round Scoring Average - Donald is 2nd and averages more than three shots lower in the final round - he looks far less likely to challenge the lead today.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Kuchar tb Bradley -138; Dufner tb Bradley +125; Watney tb Singh -137; Scott tb Howell -123; Howell tb Bradley -111; Mickelson tb Jacobson -135]
4th Round Match Ups
B WATSON (RND 4) -110 (B WATSON (RND 4) vrs M WILSON (RND 4))
D JOHNSON (RND 4) -110 (D JOHNSON (RND 4) vrs J ROSE (RND 4))
J DUFNER (RND 4) -105 (J DUFNER (RND 4) vrs C REAVIE (RND 4))
W SIMPSON (RND 4) -140 (W SIMPSON (RND 4) vrs G OGILVY (RND 4))
A SCOTT (RND 4) -135 (C HOWELL III (RND 4) vrs A SCOTT (RND 4))
B WATSON (RND 4) -110 (B WATSON (RND 4) vrs M WILSON (RND 4))
D JOHNSON (RND 4) -110 (D JOHNSON (RND 4) vrs J ROSE (RND 4))
J DUFNER (RND 4) -105 (J DUFNER (RND 4) vrs C REAVIE (RND 4))
W SIMPSON (RND 4) -140 (W SIMPSON (RND 4) vrs G OGILVY (RND 4))
A SCOTT (RND 4) -135 (C HOWELL III (RND 4) vrs A SCOTT (RND 4))
