Tour de France

A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
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New Zealand
To win Tour:

Armstrong +100 (2 units)

King of the Mountains:

Rasmussen +400 (2 units)
Moreau +700 (1)

Green Jersey:

Hushovd +400 (1)

Top 3 finish:

Armstrong -182 (2 units)

Top 6 finish:

Menchov +683 (1)

Match Bets:

Moreau -125 over McGee (1.5)
Vinokourov +110 over Basso (1)
Sinkewitz +110 over Jaksche (1)
Evans -103 over Marchante (1)
Leipheimer -118 over Botero (1.5)

Green Jersey Match Bets:

Hushovd +130 over McEwen (1)
Cooke -125 over Grady (1)

Team Match Bets:

Team CSC -125 over Phonak (1.5)

GL all :)
 
P

peteyboy

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 10, 2005
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anders,
where did you get all those lines from?
I've check bet365, 5dimes, and the greek, and they are all thin on the matchups
thanks
peteyboy
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
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PB - betfair seems to be the best on matchups at present, but i think bet365 are getting on board for stage 2, blue sq, william hill...
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
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New Zealand
Stage 3 plays:

Looking for a repeat of y'day's sprint finish...

Boonen +266 (1)
Hushovd +620 (1)

Matchup:

Davis $1.85 over Hunter (1)

GL :)
 
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A

Anders

Bandit
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Dec 17, 2000
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Cha ching.... Boonen is da man with the sprint...

Davis comfortably ahead of Hunter too...


On Tour plays:

2-3 +2.77 units

Stage 4, team time trial:

Discovery are the faves with Lance's team having dominated this event of late, but they're not the same team as previous yrs and others have a real shot tonite... playing these:

CSC +215 (1 unit)

GL all :)

(Edited, am not playing half-unit on Phonak as can't get a book with a top 3 place divvy, will just back CSC to win)
 
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A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Ouch!! Zabriskie falls 1.5km from the finish and CSC sees a 2 sec lead at the final split become a 2 sec loss at the finish because of it....boy, that hurt a bit, so damn close and should've got it home.... them's the breaks....
 
A

Anders

Bandit
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Dec 17, 2000
4,120
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Tour to Date: 3-3 +1.77 units

Think we'll see some exciting racing tonite despite another fairly flat stage. Teams will be wanting to put some pressure on Discovery and Armstrong won't be too fussed about the yellow jersey at this stage. Look for some moves from Ullrich and Vino with their T-Mobile team-mates leading out, Mayo and Basso will also need to show soon, look also for Arvesen, Backstedt, Voigt etc...
Ultimately, I think the team rivalry will mean breaks will be hauled in and we'll have a sprint finish again. Boonen is short and this sprint may suit Hush's strengths better, so 2 small plays...

To win stage:

Hushovd +800 (1/2)
Davis +3300 (1/4)

Don't like any of the matchups, too much chalk for the guys who should win for my liking.... GL ...
 
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Scotty H

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May 15, 2000
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Anders I really like that Husovd bet. The Lance top3 bet and overall is looking good for you. Really disipointed in Zabriskie falling in the last 1.5 k. Really like that CSC vs Phonak this is looking really good for you also.
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
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0
New Zealand
Cheers Scotty...

On Tour plays:

4-4 +2.02 units


Damn, I can be so dumb at times, how on earth did I not factor in the revenge factor for McEwen? Sheesh...
Nice to get some Hush place money again but still a little disappointed in how he's been beaten tactically on the tour to date....this sprint finish with its slight uphill gradient really suited him, but McEwen was the one that got on Boonen's wheel - Thor was just too late with his finish.... maybe he's not getting as good lead-outs from his team as the others?
Overall, future plays are looking good at an early stage, with Lance on top and looking in comfortable shape...many mountains to come tho, may look at a small hedge (1/4 unit?) on Heras before the climbs.
McEwen's relegation helped the match bet v Thor, altho I also felt he was hard done by....looked bad, but unless u r out there competing at that speed in tight spaces it's damn hard to judge...
Am hoping Thor's power helps him peg back Boonen on the mtn stages ...
CSC going nicely too, but so much more to happen...
Back later....
 
A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Stage 6 has been described as "lumpy", and that's about right.... it has 4 Category 4 climbs, with the most interesting one being the Cote de Maron just 13.5km from the end...
This could take the spring out of the sprinters' legs, so in my one sprinter selection, I'm going for the very fit Baden Cooke at generous odds...
But this may be the 1st time we see a breakaway keep their lead...it all depends upon the GC standings...so going small on a handful of contenders
GL guys...


Stage 6:

Cooke +3000 (0.4 units)
Hincapie +3300 (0.4)
Pagliarni +5000 (0.2)
Valverde +5000 (0.2)
Sorensen +5000 (0.2)


Top Six:

Cooke (FdJ) +600 (1)
 
A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Geez, that crash sure hurt the crazy odds on Cookie for a top six finish, he was looking well poised... ah well, the dangers of road races, these guys are brave and crazy...
However, Thor missing the spill gave him a nice jump up the green jersey standings and as mentioned before, he's still a good shot come the mountain stages... now sitting 2nd...

On Tour results: +0.02 units - wooohoo, what a profit... :)

Back later...
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
Fascinating stage y'day....as Armstrong said, he will need more team support as T-Mobile went 3-pronged at him.... we'll see if Disco is up to the challenge...

Here's how I stand after almost a week...

To win Tour:

Armstrong +100 (2 units) 1st, 1:00 mins

King of the Mountains:

Rasmussen +400 (2 units) 32pts, 1
Moreau +700 (1) -

Green Jersey:

Hushovd +400 (1) 2nd, 128 pts (5 behind Boonen)

Top 3 finish:

Armstrong -182 (2 units) 1st, 1:00 mins

Top 6 finish:

Menchov +683 (1) 28th, 3:53

Match Bets:

Moreau -125 over McGee (1.5) 17th, 2:48 // 40th, 4:12
Vinokourov +110 over Basso (1) 3rd, 1:02 // 5th, 1:26
Sinkewitz +110 over Jaksche (1) 51st, 5:47 // 22nd, 3:02
Evans -103 over Marchante (Gomez) 24th, 3:29 // 64th, 6:32
Leipheimer -118 over Botero (1.5) 14th, 2:31 // 13th, 2:18

Green Jersey Match Bets:

Hushovd +130 over McEwen (1) 2nd, 128 // 3rd, 96
Cooke -125 over O'Grady (1) 9th, 59 // 4th, 91

Team Match Bets:

Team CSC -125 over Phonak (1.5) 1, - // 4, 3:02

On Tour Plays:

+0.02 units
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
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0
New Zealand
Like 'em even better after last nite - Rasmussen and Moreau now 1 and 2 in the KotM standings.... Tues stage should be great, may have some plays...

Updating after wk 1 (current prices in brackets):

To win Tour:

Armstrong +100 (2 units) 3rd, 2:18 down (now -160)

King of the Mountains:

Rasmussen +400 (2 units) 88pts, 1st (now -271)
Moreau +700 (1) 40 pts, 2nd (now +520)

Green Jersey:

Hushovd +400 (1) 2nd, 128 pts (5 behind Boonen) (now +275)

Top 3 finish:

Armstrong -182 (2 units) 3rd, 2:18 down (now -380)

Top 6 finish:

Menchov +683 (1) 39th, 6:31

Match Bets:

Moreau -125 over McGee (1.5) 17th, 2:48 // 38th, 6:30
Vinokourov +110 over Basso (1) 5th, 3:20 // 7th, 3:44 (now -188)
Sinkewitz +110 over Jaksche (1) 50th, 8:05 // 23nd, 5:20
Evans -103 over Marchante (Gomez) 25th, 5:47 // WD WIN
Leipheimer -118 over Botero (1.5) 16th, 4:49 // 15th, 4:36

Green Jersey Match Bets:

Hushovd +130 over McEwen (1) 2nd, 128 // 4th, 96
Cooke -125 over O'Grady (1) 11th, 59 // 3rd, 109

Team Match Bets:

Team CSC -125 over Phonak (1.5) 1st, - // 5th, 6:02

On Tour Plays:

+0.02 units
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
1-1 o'nite for a push as Basso just dropped off the top 3 late....nice result for the futures with lance looking in control...
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
Adding:

Top 6 Tour finish:

Leipheimer +143 (1 unit)

Stage 11:

Oscar Pereiro Sio (Pho) $21 (1/3 unit)
Leonardo Piepoli (Sau) $21 (1/3)
Santiago Botero (Pho) $21 (1/3)

Totschnig -131 over Astarloza (1)
Casar -105 over Moncoutie (1)
Botero +147 over Moreau (1.5)
Jan Ullrich -110 over Landis (1)

GL all :)
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
Very nice day for the forum's sole Tour rider... :)

Stage 11:

Oscar Pereiro Sio (Pho) $21 (1/3 unit)
Leonardo Piepoli (Sau) $21 (1/3)
Santiago Botero (Pho) $21 (1/3) pl

+1.33 units



Totschnig -131 over Astarloza (1) W +1.00 units
Casar -105 over Moncoutie (1) W +1.00 units
Botero +147 over Moreau (1.5) W +1.71 units
Jan Ullrich -110 over Landis (1) W +1.00 units

+4.71 units

O/all: +6.04 units

In-play Tour to Date: +6.08 units
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
Stage Match-up:

O'Grady -218 over Heras (1.5 units)

Stage winner:

Flecha $20 (1/2 unit)
O'Grady $28 (1/2)
Hunter $30 (1/2)

GL all :)
 
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