Round 1 play (2pts):
Nick Watney to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Bet365 [available generally]
The marquee matchup and the marquee grouping (with Bubba Watson) in the first round, but even though Kaymer is #1 in the World Rankings, Watney is by far the hotter player. Whereas Kaymer's five starts this year have yielded finishes of 1st, 28th, 31st, 2nd and 4th, Watney's have yielded finishes of 6th, 5th, 6th, 9th and 1st. And whereas Kaymer is making his debut at the Innisbrook resort, Watney has played in each of the last five years here, making the cut every time and finishing further up the leaderboard every time, culminating in a 4th place finish last year. He doesn't appear in his interviews to be a likely candidate for a post-win letdown, so I'll back Watney at plus odds to beat Kaymer whose play was particularly poor at the weekend.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Furyk tb Singh +105; Laird tb Haas B +110]