Trap Lines, Sucker bets, etc, etc

[baltimore buc]

How many of you all really take these consensus sites seriously? I am just trying to do a better job at identifying early what appears to be a square play or a sucker bet and play the other side.

For example - Rutgers-Michigan State - line looks like it opened around -7 and has dropped to -6.5 to -6, and at some places even as low as -5.5, but numerous consensus sites show wagers on the Spartans outweigh the Knights 3-1? Does this mean public is all on Michigan State and smart money is coming in on Rutgers, or do these consensus sites really show us anything we can use?

Just wondering what criteria (i.e. what a line opens at, how it moves, key numbers, etc) people use in attempt to stay away from trap bets.

 

[redking]

I haven't seen a MJ capper on MSU yet. I'm afraid this is a trap line like EMU vs UB (last night)...everyone on MJ took EMU minus the points and lost.

I don't know why the RU line is coming down...from what I've seen, it seems like the public is on MSU.

 

[NY Reb]

Public is on Mich St, smart money is on Rutgers. Mich St has the name, Rutgers is at least as talented.

 

[redking]

Public is on Mich St, smart money is on Rutgers. Mich St has the name, Rutgers is at least as talented.

I am a huge, huge, huge RU fan, but this game scares me with the line dropping. RU is breaking in new defensive backs and they are going to be missing two linemen on Saturday. One for discipline problems, one for health. If they can't rush the passer, the new DBs will be toasted.

Quick scores will take the RU crowd out of the game and MSU will go conservative. This won't be a close game...either team will win by double digits.

 

[nut flush]

I use the consensus....

I use the consensus....

and if alot of cappers at the forms like the same way as the consensus, I will Fade...

I think Carib is the best because they are actuall wagers, not just people picking anything

 

[cooz3]

im not going to get to deep into analysis here...and i dont want to start a debate..but i will very rarely play a team that has an overwhleming majority of people picking them...i am a anti-public bettor ..whatever that means...just a quick and simplistic example was e. michigan last night..the consensus sites i check had them at a 70-80% pick last night....so automatically i take a real close look at the opposite side....i saw nothing that justified an exceptional amount of people on e. mich ...so i played buffalo at plus 7...a very simple example...but i think there is value in going against a team that big % of bettors are on...and that goes for every sport but for me even more so in football ...that is just my opinion though as im sure many would dispute the value of going anti-public so to speak...but waht works for me is what works for me...

by the way i see rutgers as 65-70% play on the consensus sites i check...so not sure why you view mich. state as the public play here...


best of luck

cooz