"Trap", my ass!

[yyz]

Listen to you guys:

"The line is begging you to take Green Bay!"

"The bookies are trapping you into taking the Packers!"

Wake up!

If you hadicaped the game, go with what your numbers told you, not the line.

"Gee, I have the Packers winning by 20, but the line is 7?......I better take the Lions!"

What kinda horseshit is that?!

I'll tell you what. This is the first week in years where I have seen this much anger from a Packer team after a loss. They know they pissed away that last game. It is not sitting well with any of them.

Brett and the coach have made it known that Bill Schroeder was responsible for the three INT's last week by running the first two routs wrong, and "quitting" on the last play. So, all you Favre haters, can give it a rest.....He will have a great game today.

Let's go to Charlie Batch. I have always liked the guy. I have also always been laughed at for that!

He is a decent qb. I am not sure he will have a standout day, as I expect Green Bay to be a hell of a lot sharper today, than they were Sunday.

Guys, getting embarrased last week was not a fun thing for these Packers. We all hear about "bouncing back", the "wake-up call", etc. This is truely one of those situations.

I didn't hear or read a thing about "playoff" talk from the Packers this week, where as last week, some of thenguys were already starting that shit.

I have no doubt that the Lions are not as bad as thier 0-9 record states. A few Chicago bear-like breaks, and they have 2 or 3 wins. Still, they are not on the same page as the Packers.

Initially, I was saying, "Great.....now we get to go to a stinking dome after this loss!"

I think differently, now. The Lions are banged up at a lot of spots, and are not a deep team, as we all know. Green Bay will salvage some respect today, by playing these guys to death.

There will be no slow start like last week, when they thought, "We can't lose to this Atlanta team!" This will be a long day for the Lions.

Yes, I too, was like a lot of you guys on Sunday night, and Monday morning. "The Packers are done for this year. They look like crap!"

But after pulling my sad ass out of the dumpster, I re-grouped, and re-worked the situation.

I honestly think this is when Brett Favre tells his team, "Hey. We can win on the turf in Detroit and Minnesota, and it starts Thursday!"

------------------------------

Better offense:

GB
Det

Better defense:

GB
Det

Better kicking game:

GB
Det

Better coaching:

GB
Det

-------------------------------

I don't see Detroit with anything besides home field advantage, and the eliment of surprise, as they have nothing to lose by trying trick plays, and such. I know this is the one game they want to win, if they only win one all year. That being said.....they just can't.

Green Bay -6'(...even if you need to buy it there) $33/$30

On my unit scale, I would rate this at 3 units.

Happy Thanksgiving!

[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 11-22-2001).]

 

[T-Bone]

im with ya there i got green bay too the 1 thing that scares me is detroits special teams the have shown on more than one ocassion this year that that they can use them as a weapon setting them up in good field position and scoring thankfully though though there defense is so pathetic they cant stop anone and favre is gonna light there ass up today.i believe thats why the total is so high .+the people detroit has on the injured list could make up a pretty good team on its on thats where a lot of there problems lie green bay all the way today

 

[Jerwin#2]

i dont care if GB has better defense, offense, or coach. The fact is Detroit plays out of their ass on thanksgiving and we at home wonder what GB team this is. Without Butler, opponents will score some points in this one. I love the over in this one but watch out, this is detroit's Super Bowl game.
Good luck!!

 

[Juice]

Hi yyz,
Everyone has different ways of handicapping games. Some people crunch numbers to come up with what they feel the line sould be, and others simply look for lines that appear to be too good to be true, and bet the other way. You have to do what you feel comfortable with and what has worked for you in the past.
There'e no need to disrespect people's 'capping techniques just because they differ from yours. I personally look for "trap" lines (and I don't believe this is one of them), but I don't call your system "horseshit".
Don't mean to sound dissrespectfull, its just the way I feel.
GL today.

 

[MrMoney]

yyz,

Man I have to agree with you on this one. The Broncos are in a similar situation today against Dallas. Both the Packers and Broncos will cover today, due to both being vastly superior teams.

GL on you wager.

MM

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by Juice:
Hi yyz,
There'e no need to disrespect people's 'capping techniques just because they differ from yours.

Not disrespacting a handicap technique, sir. Merely stating that people need to do their work, and make a stand. Don't look at the line and make your play based on that. You bet into the line, not because of it.

Good luck today.

 

[MustangGT]

how can you say you don't bet BECAUSE of a line?????

 

[yyz]

Mustang,

You bet because the line looks good? I bet because the team I am backing can beat that line!

Again, all I am trying to say is this:

Figure out the game before you look at the line. Don't let the "line" be the reason you bet!

 

[MustangGT]

yyz,
By that i guess you are undefeated with a bankroll the size of Donny Trumps????

 

[pepin46]

yyz

i base my projection on this long rivalry that has yielded the home team the majority of the wins. based on that, i have included detroit +19.5 in a superteaser.

to further justify my pick, i have looked at each team's early scoring patterns vs. their latest ones, and that swings me to detroit as well for late spread momemtum???? whatever.

honestly, i could not do it the other way, at g.b. +6.5 or 7. i don't like what happened last week. i did expect the non-cover, but the loss? if they could not come back at home, how will they get up for this one if detroit makes 2-3 unanswered tds? detroit has nothing to lose and beating green bay would be like their superbowl. too risky for me.

after having said all this, my recommendation is to do a similar 4 team superteaser, as posted earlier by me, or make your own picks. there is a pretty good chance they will come in either way. it is still a small fun bet, nothing to go ape over.

happy thanksgiving from panama. we will probably go out to one of the hotels in the quest for our turkey.


pep

 

[MadJack]

mustang--this isn't wagertalk. wtf is your problem?

 

[yyz]

pep,

I agree with the +19'.....the Packers shouldn't beat anyone by that!

Mustang,

Since you fail to understand what I am trying to say, I can't keep explaining it. Good luck all the same.

 

[Junior44]

I've said it a hundred times, I'll say it again. There is no such thing as a "so-called" trap. It is pure fallacy. At a given line, a play either has value or it does not have value. If a game has value based upon your handicapping processes (whatever they may be), then you make a wager. If a game does not have value based upon your handicapping processes (whatever they may be), then you do not make a wager.

To not make a play upon a game or (god forbid) take the other side than your handicapping suggests (assuming you have confidence in the process) because the line is "too good to be true" holds no water.

 

[yyz]

Thank you, Jr.......I wish I would have explained it like that.

 

[Juice]

To not make a play upon a game or (god forbid) take the other side than your handicapping suggests (assuming you have confidence in the process) because the line is "too good to be true" holds no water.

I agre with you j44, but the problem is most people have false confidence in their process. I think its no secret that most people are not as good at making lines as Vegas is. You (not you personally) may think you are, but you're not. The truth of the matter is, only about 1% of cappers can make a better line than Vegas. That is why most players lose more often than not. I've learned to accept this. After years of losing I finally admitted that Vegas is better at this than I am.
Therefore, when I see a line that is 2 points lower than it "should be", I don't say, "boy, Vegas really screwed up on this one", I say, "boy I really screwd up on this one". And because I've accepted that Vegas is better than I am at making lines, I bet with them, not against them.
I know this goes against conventional wisdom, but it really does work for me.
I'm not trying to convince you that my system is better that yours, and that yours holds no water, I'm just trying clarify why some people bet differently than you.

 

[Junior44]

Juice,

Allow me to address a few of your points and assumptions (some that I agree with and some not) and make a few additional comments.

First of all, if an individual doesn't have confidence in the handicapping process used to arrive at a wagering decision, he shouldn't be betting. Perhaps for entertainment purposes, yes. But, as far as turning a profit, no way. There are many factors involved in being successful, but it starts with coming up with a variance in the line and acting upon it. While it's true that, perhaps, as few as 1% of bettors are successful, I firmly believe that a much larger percentage can (and does) make a better line. Linesmakers are not prophets and are not superhuman. There are many other, and more important, reasons why people fail other than not being able to outhandicap Vegas. Poor money mangement, lack of discipline, impulse decision-making, lack of confidence (changing sides) to name a few. Those are the REAL reasons more people fail than not.

Now, do I personally feel I can make a better line than Vegas? Without sounding smug, absolutely. In my opinion, that's not the most difficult part and alot more people are able to than it appears. We must remember that "Vegas" does not base their lines on X's and O's, they base their lines on public perception. BIG difference. The rest of the equation is the hard part and ultimately will decide the success, or lack thereof, of the bettor (assuming he can beat the line). Example: You show me a bettor that can pick 60% winners and I would not be able to tell you if he made money or not.

 

[kcwolf]

Handicap your own lines and rate them.

Rate them according to the wager, in other words, vary your bets. Works for me, once you learn to handicap your own line.

Thought I'd keep it simple for now.

gl all!

kcwolf