Travis Perkins UK Championship Snooker

crookycymru

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Great tournament in prospect, after the brilliant Britsh Open last week. With a longer frame format, the seeds will be looking to catch up on some valuable table time, as many would have played little competitive snooker this season.

Wont make outright posts in this thread, but I have backed Stephen Hendry and Ken Doherty each way at 6/1 and 16/1 respectively.

Tuesday 18th November

Will begin the tournament by backing a seasoned veteran, who is a former winner of this event. Nigel Bond is battling back to some sort of decent form, after a good number of years in the doldrums. His tournament winning days are probably well past him, but he is able to compete with the lower ranked players, and can pick up a few wins here and there. He has won just two of his five matches this season, but I feel this longer format will suit him more, then the five frame shoot outs.
Robert Milkins is not normally a player I would oppose against a veteran, but he has started the season badly, and is low on confidence. He has picked up just six frames in three matches against Stuart Pettman, Barry Pinches and Mark Davis this season. He will at least be given the opportunity to rediscover some from over seventeen frames, but the value lies in backing Bond.......James Bond. ;)

1 Point Nigel Bond to beat Robert Milkins at 6/5 with BlueSquare

Moving on to one of my favourite players, a great break builder and a huge under acheiver. It is a mystery as to why Anthony Hamilton has failed to live up to his potential. He has compiled more century breaks in snooker than most players, but yet struggles with consistency. He has practiced hard all summer, and has reportedly been in top form on the practice table. He has had a tough start this term, facing a very much in form Michael Holt twice, beating him before losing to Holt in last weeks British Open.
Hamilton faces Stuart Bingham, who has had plenty of action this season already. However, he has come short when playing against quality opposition, and all his five wins this season, have come against less talented players than Hamilton. With Hamilton desperate for win, he wont be given too many better opportunities and should be backed with confidence against Bingham.

2 Points Anthony Hamilton to beat Stuart Bingham at 8/11 Generally

You wont get many heavier snooker bets from me than this one. Not only is Fergal O'Brien a confident selection, but he is huge value at 5/6 to beat Mark Selby. Quite where compliers get that quote from is beyond me.
I already stated in the British Open thread that I am impressed with O'Brien, and he is starting to show the signs of the form that made him a top sixteen player for a number of seasons. He has won six of his last seven matches, his only defeat against world number one Mark Williams. In that streak, he has beaten players of higher quality than his opponent tomorrow, and has the general posture of a confident player when at the table.
In contrast, Mark Selby has lost his three matches this term, mustering a paltry six frames against the likes of Stuart Bingham, Brian Morgan and Stephen Macguire. Over seventeen frames, quality will tell, and unless O'Brien has left his form and confidence in Brighton, there is only one winner in this matchup.
Quite simply, one of the best snooker bets you will get.

6 Points Fergal O'Brien to beat Mark Selby at 5/6 Generally

I will oppose a player who has impressed me this season, and will surely make the top sixteen at the end of the season. Gerrard Greene was on the verge of a semi final last week, before losing to Ronnie O'Sullivan in a decider, and it remains to be seen how he will take the defeat.
Very much a value bet on Swail more than anything else, as I feel a 17/10 quote is a little too generous. He is a top class player on his day, and thanks to wins over Steve Davis, Stuart Bingham, and Barry Hawkins this season, has regained some confidence after his nightmare season last term.

1 Point Joe Swail to beat Gerrard Greene at 17/10 with SuperOdds

I will take a gamble on Stuart Pettman to beat Ian McCulloch.
McCulloch is very low on confidence, and has yet to win a match this season. He has not played any world beaters, apart from Shaun Murphy, but has not come close to winning, and struggled again last week in the British Open, a event he came close to winning last year.
It is hard to see where his first win of the season will come, and he wont find Stuart Pettman in sympathetic mood. Pettman has been a little patchy this season, but has at least got some wins and table time under his belt. He was impressive in qualifying for this match, in beating Nick Dyson, with some good breaks along the way.
Not siding with the most consistent player in the world, but at odds against, represents a bit of value in what is very much a 50-50 matchup.

1 Point Stuart Pettman to beat Ian McCulloch at 5/4 Generally

I will finish with a treble on three players who have very strong claims to win their matches. Mark King, Stephen Macguire and Ali Carter all have distinct advantages over their opponents, and are confidently taken to beat their opposition.

1 Point Treble Mark King, Stephen Macguire, and Ali Carter at 2/5, 1/2 and 2/7 respectively at William Hill
 

crookycymru

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Wednesday 19th November

Struggling to find too many bets on the early second roud matches.

I will make Joe Perry my lone single at the moment. I am looking to oppose Tony Drago, who I still think gives way too many chances to his opposition when he is playing. I really thought he had achieved something in beating Jimmy White 5-2 at the British Open, but he then went and lost 5-0 to Stephen Lee. Drago struggled in beating Rory McLeod in a decider yesterday, in a match without too many high breaks.
Joe Perry has fallen remarkably short when playing a top player, having been beaten by Matthew Stevens and by Stephen Hendry last week in the British Open. I think he is still a cut above Drago, and I can only hope that having been whitewashed by Hendry, he has gone back to the practice table, and practiced hard ahead of this one.

2 Points Joe Perry to beat Tony Drago at 4/6 with Stan James

Will add a treble. Cant see too many problems in store for some of the worlds top players at this stage. Over seventeen frames, you would always expect class to prevail, and all three players I am backing are in good form, and should have the edge over their opponents.

2 Point Treble Ken Doherty, Stephen Lee and Peter Ebdon at 1/4, 1/5 and 1/3 at William Hill
 

korben

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Re: Travis Perkins UK Championship Snooker

Originally posted by crookycymru 6 Points Fergal O'Brien to beat Mark Selby at 5/6 Generally

O?Brien fights from 6-8 down to 8-8.
No matter how it ends he surely gave it a shot.

Final frame staring soon. Come on Fergal
:bigun:
 

korben

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O?Brien beats Selby 9-8 :)

Nice one crookycymru :toast:

Not easy as one would have thought but hey win is a win no matter the score ;)
 

crookycymru

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Just one bet for tomorrow morning. Cant make a write up as I am not on my computer, and am sad at Wales' exit tonight, having gone to the match expecting a win!!!

2 Points Drew Henry to beat Jimmy White at 11/10 with SkyBet
 
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crookycymru

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Round one
Barry Pinches (Eng) bt Marco Fu (HK) 9-1
Nigel Bond (Eng) bt Robert Milkins (Eng) 9-4
Mark King (Eng) bt Alain Robidoux (Can) 9-4
Tony Drago (Mal) bt Rory McLeod (Eng) 9-8
Stephen Maguire (Scot) bt Anthony Davies (Wal) 9-8
Chris Small (Scot) bt Andy Hicks (Eng) 9-6
Stuart Bingham (Eng) bt Anthony Hamilton (Eng) 9-7
Dave Harold (Eng) bt Mark Davis (Eng) 9-6
Ali Carter (Eng) bt Bjorn Haneveer (Belg) 9-3
Ian McCulloch (Eng) bt Stuart Pettman (Eng) 9-4
Gerard Greene (N Ire) bt Joe Swail (N Ire) 9-4
James Wattana (Thai) bt Robin Hull (Fin) 9-2
Dominic Dale (Wal) bt Joe Delaney (Rep Ire) 9-3
John Parrott (Eng) bt Barry Hawkins (Eng) 9-8
Drew Henry (Scot) bt Michael Holt (Eng) 9-7
Fergal O'Brien (Rep Ire) bt Mark Selby (Eng) 9-8

Round two

King bt David Gray (Eng) 9-8
Paul Hunter (Eng) bt Maguire 9-7
Peter Ebdon (Eng) bt Bingham 9-2
Joe Perry (Eng) bt Drago 9-6
Stephen Lee (Eng) bt Harold 9-5
Bond bt Ken Doherty (Rep Ire) 9-7
Pinches bt Graeme Dott (Scot) 9-6
Quinten Hann (Aus) bt Small 9-8
Jimmy White (Eng) bt Henry 9-5
Carter bt Steve Davis (Eng) 9-6
Matthew Stevens (Wal) bt Greene 9-7
Alan McManus (Scot) bt Dale 9-7


The big bet of the week so far, has rescued another patchy week on the snooker front. Fergal O'Brien came from 5-2, and 8-6 down to win 9-8, which has put me in profit. Had he lost, then I would have been in a bit of a hole, but I owe Fergal a Guinness should I ever bump into him. :thefinger

Struggling to make any kind of bet on tomorrows snooker. All heavy favourites are in with a huge chance of winning their matches, and only James Wattana tempts me at big prices, but it is hard to oppose John Higgins over seventeen frames, and given the kind of form he is in.

Will hopefully have something for Sunday. :)

UK Championships :

4-5 (44%) +1.23 Units (+?123 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)
 

crookycymru

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May well end up regretting not betting James Wattana who is 5-3 up against John Higgins, while our old friend Fergal O'Brien shocked Mark Williams in winning 9-7. However, Wattana was 4-0 up, at 5-3 the momentum is still with Higgins.

Sunday 23rd November 2003

Despite all the reports that Joe Perry is not playing well, he has only lost to Stephen Hendry and Matthew Stevens this season, and seems to be able to win matches against opponents ranked lower than him. He was a confident slecetion against Tony Drago, and won 9-6, and I see a similar kind of scoreline here.
Whilst Nigel Bond upset the form book to beat Ken Doherty, it was a paticularly scrappy match, which suits his safety style of play. If his safety is below par, he is bound to present Perry with chances. Had Bond not beaten Doherty, this kind of matchup would have Perry around a 8/15 favourite, so playing at odds of around 8/11 not only represents value, but a confident selection.

2 Points Joe Perry to beat Nigel Bond at 8/11 Generally

Taking a short price double about two players who are very hard to oppose over this long frame format.
Peter Ebdon is not only a better player than Quinten Hann, but is also more dedicated, and is likely to have put far more effort into his practice ahead of this match. He looked something like his best in the British Open earlier in the month, and picked up here beating Stuart Bingham 9-2, while Hann was made to scrap it out against Chris Small of Scotland. Ebdons slow style of play is bound to frustrate the Aussie, who prefers to get on with things, which may lead to frustration, and plenty of gifted chanes for Ebdon.
Taking Ebdon with Paul Hunter who looks a solid choice against Mark King. There is little doubt that Mark King is growing in confidence having threatened to quit the sport last season, but this is a big step up in class for King, who has failed to trouble any of the worlds top players, and looks unlikely to do so again here.

3 Point Double Peter Ebdon and Paul Hunter at 4/11 and 1/4 with Ladbrokes
 

crookycymru

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Monday 24th November

Not surprising that I am backing a player who has put a lot in our pockets of late. I acknowlegde that Fergal O'Brien was poor in beating Mark Williams, but the facts are he beat the World number one, and a player who has been dominating the game of late. His form is certainly worth of a top sixteen place, and he has to hold an edge over Jimmy White, who has had little table time this season.

2 Points Fergal O'Brien to beat Jimmy White at 11/10 Generally

I am tempted to take James Wattana over Matthew Stevens, purely as a value bet, but I think Stevens will win today, as he has a big chance of winning this tournament. The price a little short, but combine it with a generous quote of 2/7 for Barry Pinches to take the required three frames this afternoon represents good value.

2 Points Matthew Stevens and Barry Pinches at 4/11 and 2/7 with William Hill
 

crookycymru

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Tuesday 24th November 2003

I have often talked about a player having a huge advantage having had lots of competitive snooker this season, against a player with little table time. However, that angle might be worth opposing with Stephen Hendry tomorrow, who has not had a break in over three weeks, having won the British Open a fortnight ago, and was then straight into action for this tournament in York.
It was evident that he has not carried the form he showed in Brighton here, as he dragged out a 9-6 victory against John Parrott in the last round. While he will be relieved to have won that match, it is hard for players to win back to back tournaments at this level these days, and Hendry might be worth opposing as this tournament draws to a close.
He is up against a hot prospect in Ali Carter who played some very impressive snooker in beating Steve Davis earlier in the week, and has actually beaten Hendry in three of the four times these players have met. While that stat will mean nothing to the legendary Hendry, it at least gives Ali Carter the belief that he can beat him, and seems to be relishing the task of taking on Hendry over seventeen frames.
Given the way this tournament is mapping out, with a lot of the big seeds either crashing out or scraping through, it may well pay to side with Ali Carter tomorrow at generous odds.


1 Point Ali Carter to beat Stephen Hendry at 3/1 Generally
 

crookycymru

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Struggling like hell this tournament. Luck not been with me this week as Joe Perry and Ali Cater have blown 8-6 leads to lose 9-8.


Posting this one early as I am certain that price will not last. (Will add reasoning later)

Wednesday 26th November

Given the kind of form Jimmy White produced in his match against Fergal O'Brien, and the positive mental state he is in, he is in with a huge chance of going through to a semi final. That match was high quality snooker throughout, and if Jimmy had been only a touch off his best, he would have been knocked out, and we would be backing Fergal O'Brien here.
Give credit to Nigel Bond who has come from nowhere to reach the quarters, and while (like Jimmy) Bond has been there at the top of the game in the past, he has not been playing at such a high level for a few years now, and looks very vulnerable today.

5 Points Jimmy White to beat Nigel Bond at 8/11 with StanJames

Very difficult to oppose Ronnie O'Sullivan given the kind of form he is in. He carried over his British Open form into this week, and it says a lot about Alan McManus playing so well, that he even managed to take five frames off him in that mood. However, it seems the demons have struck again, and he opened his heart in his after match press conference yesterday, saying he is struggling mentally. While we have seen and heard it all before off Ronnie, he does look vulnerable at this stage, and if Quinten Hann can manage to get in front, then you have to wonder if Ronnie will even care about putting in a fightback.
I have been very impresed with the Aussie this tournament. I opposed him against Peter Ebdon, but he looked very comfortable during that match, and has even enlisted the help of a coach this season, to help his game. He has the ability to reach a semi final sooner or later, so at huge odds, he is worht taking a chance on today.

1 Point Quinten Hann to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan at 4/1 Generally
 
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alb

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Jumped on your pick White for 2 units.......unfortunately too late as I could only get 4/6. Nice one anyway!
 

crookycymru

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Round three

Pinches bt Lee 9-6
Hunter bt King 9-8
Hann bt Ebdon 9-6
Bond bt Perry 9-8
White bt O'Brien 9-7
Stevens bt Wattana 9-6
O'Sullivan bt McManus 9-5
Hendry bt Carter 9-8

Quarter-finals

Stevens bt Hunter 9-3
White bt Bond 9-3
Hendry bt Pinches 9-3
O'Sullivan bt Hann 9-3

Semi-finals

Stevens bt White 9-7


Saturday 29th November 2003

Lost plenty opposing Ronnie O'Sullivan this season, so I am going to reverse my trend and back him with confidence tomorrow.
Despite all his personal problems, it looks like the only place Ronnie is happy is when he is out on the table beating opponents with ease. It is impossible to oppose him at the moment, and he does look to be playing the kind of snooker very few players can match. Admittedly Stephen Hendry is one of those few players, but he is going to be at his very best tomorrow.
Given that Hendry has already won a title this season, you have to assume Ronnie will be hungrier. I think he will win this match by about three frames, and then go on to beat Matthew Stevens in the final.
What he does next.......anybody knows!! :shrug:

4 Points Ronnie O'Sullivan to beat Stephen Hendry at 8/11 Generally
 

british bulldog

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Snookers not as easy to win at as some may think. Take out the top four players and the next 30 or so in the rankings will regularly beat one another.

After a reasonable last tournament it's a shame that you made a loss of 6.60 points, but credit to you for posting your plays in a difficult sport to master.

I thought I would post the final figure as it didn't appear that Crookycymru was going to. I mean, he's posted in other threads since this competition finished.
 

crookycymru

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Apologies for the delay in updating the thread....some of us work for a living.

Contrary to what some might think, I had every intention of updating this thread. I did not update the World Cup thread for over a fortnight, in a thread where I posted over twenty units profit.

I am not going to win every tournament I play on. I have already posted profits on the World Championships, the British Open, and although I did not post on the LG Cup this season at Madjacks, I was up over fifteen units on that tournament, and I can be backed up on that one by members of this site, who had my plays e-mailed to them.

2003 UK Championship Final Record :

6-10 (38%) -6.62 Units (-?662 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)

Roll on the Welsh Open in January. Would normally actually go to a large part of the tournament in Cardiff and hit their Bet365 tent hard ;) , but wont be in the country during January.

Derek, as you are in the habit of updating my records, can I invite you to update my Heineken Cup thread during the course of the tournament, as it takes up a lot of my time updating records on this site, and as you seem to have enough time to do it, maybe you can reduce my workload a little...:shrug:
 
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