TRIPLE CROWN PICTURE STILL IFFY

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By Brian Mulligan
Courtesy of TCBets.com Racebook

Elvis has left the Keeneland building but not the Triple Crown picture. Elvis is the nickname for Sun King and he will need a rebound race to cash in the Derby. Really, all the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby have done is tell us that there are a couple of more major players who have designs on Churchill the first Saturday in May.
Afleet Alex may not be the second coming of Smarty Jones but he is taking the same route as that star and he posted an eye catching 8-length score at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. It was the biggest winning margin in the near 70-year history of the stakes.
His time of 1:48 4/5 was 3 ticks faster than Smarty and almost 2 full seconds faster than what Bandini needed to win the Blue Grass.
Bandini took his final prep in clever fashion getting pretty much a perfect trip to cash by 6 lengths. He came out of the race fine and it?s all systems go toward Churchill.
The race didn?t scare anybody off as several colts still have hopes of glory. Runner up High Limit, who didn?t figure to be fully cranked, got a nice tightener under his belt and he will be better off in the long run.
Closing Argument, 3rd, is on the fence but Consolidator, who didn?t get the best of trips, and Sun King, will be back to fight another day.
Afleet Alex contended with faster splits and he showed a nice stalking style, which could bode well when he sees the Twin Spires. He has not punished by his rider Jeremy Rose, who hit him at least 5 times in the lane. Don?t be shocked if connections try to get a more experienced pilot, and somebody like Gary Stevens just may be available.
Bandini was a bit wide in his win but he appeared to be all out down the lane. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been concerned about this colt?s focus, so he obviously has some growing up to do. The musical jockey chairs will be a factor if Edgar Prado sticks with Sun King. That would leave open another Zito runner in Noble Causeway.
Zito reportedly was not all that pleased with Javier Castellano?s celebration before reaching the wire with Bellamy Road, but the kid will live to fight another day. Zito in the New York Post: ?If you were my sister, and you went out with Mike Tyson, and you came back alive, I?m just glad you?re alive, OK? I don?t think he?ll have the opportunity to do that again, I don?t think he?ll be 17 in front, not in the Derby.?
Before you get all hot and bothered and oversold on the awesome Wood win by Bellamy Road, consider the quotes to the NTRA by Bobby Frankel. He can read horses, as his world class training attests, and he had some interesting things to say about getting on the Road again. He was speaking about having a tough race to get a horse fighting fit for the Derby and the quotes came before High Limit?s 2nd in the Blue Grass:
? I don?t know if a romp necessarily means it?s an easy race. I mean like Bellamy Road had a romp. But I don?t know if that wasn?t a tough race on him. Your eyes are deceiving when you watch horse racing, you?re thinking a horse runs very--is winning very easily, but he might be doing the best he can even though he?s not being driven. So it?s a hard thing to say: do you want a tough race? I think a horse like mine sort of needs a tough race because he?s only had one race, you know? And I think he needs it tougher. I remember Sunday Silence having that tough race before, but it was 4 weeks out in the Santa Anita Derby where Patrick hit him about 10 times in the stretch when Easy Goer had the easy race going in there, where he never put him into a drive.?
I?ve seen this happen in the Press Box a ton of times. Ten guys can see a race, and you can get 9 different opinions about what really happened in the race. As the Derby gets closer, pay attention to trainer quotes and work patterns. Don?t be so concerned about speed in the works, but the way the works were accomplished and try to read into the trainer?s thoughts at the same time.

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