Trophee Hassan II

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet to beat David Howell +100 @ Bet365
With no course form to use, backing the in-form player in this matchup. Gonnet has two top-5 finishes and missed just one cut in seven that this year, but his form advantage over Howel is much stronger at the start of events: whereas Gonnet has four of seven 1st round scores this year under 70 and is averaging 70.0 in the first round, Howell averages over 2.3 shots higher in the first round and has yet to break 70 in any first round this year.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: McGrane tb Floren -115; Nilsson tb Jamieson -111; Weaver tb Baker -130; Lafeber tb Huldahl -110; Fasth tb Ilonen +100; Slattery tb Sjoholm -120; Canizares tb Whiteford -110; Boyd tb Huldahl -115; Kjeldsen tb Hiratsuka -110; McGrane tb Hedblom -110]

 

[Another Steve]

ODDS TO WIN TROPHEE HASSAN II 2011 JOSE MANUEL LARA +2800

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Peter Lawrie(66/1) e.w.
Darren Clarke(40/1) e.w.
Damien McGrane(125/1) e.w.
- - Continuing my poor run . . . the other Lawrie seems value, and then tight driving tips the scale with a heavy thumb; Clarke is a rarity in being one I don't mind when he gets to sharing/vocalizing ambitious expectations before the off, rather than keeping that drive quietly bottled up inside and only chatting about such beliefs as the evidence is manifesting itself after scores are posted, and the pro/am format (in a royal preserve no less) contributes more than detracts from the selection; small targets, tight driving and scrambling would be right up the big-priced McGrane's street if he isn't putting as poorly as his present stats seem to indicate . . . I don't think I was planning to lean on the Luck of the Irish after the Scottish double, but now it is what it is, and I see I'm getting with tour-tips with 2/3 of my team.

GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Outright
Raphael Jacquelin Top 10 2.15 to 1

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Peter Hedblom to beat Oscar Floren -105 @ 5Dimes
Two players in similar positions to last week: Hedblom opened with a 69 last week and 11th after the 1st round, he is currently 12th; Floren opened with a 65 last week to be 1st after the 1st round, he is currently 5th. From that point onwards, Floren looked like a player who had missed eight of 13 cuts on the European as he dropped down the leaderboard each day to finish 40th and behind Hedblom. I'd expect a similar trend to happen again this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Wood tb Kapur -150; Ramsay tb Van Zyl -105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Peter Hedblom to beat Mikko Ilonen +105 @ SkyBet
Standard play to oppose a player who shot a particularly low round the previous day. In this case, Ilonen shot 64 around the Golf du Palais Royal course yesterday and as a mark of how impressive that is, the 2nd-lowest score of the day was 67. Typically, players fail to carry over such form to the following day.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Clarke tb Davies -111; Clarke tb Singh +105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat David Horsey -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power]
Opposing Horsey who holds the lead (with Rhys Davies) heading into the final round. He did win the BMW International Open last year, but that was from off-the-pace. He has never previously held the lead in a European Tour event after either 36 or 54 holes and the one time that he held the lead after 18 holes (2009 BMW PGA Championship), he eventually finished 43rd.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Lawrie tb Rock +110; Luiten tb Cabrera-Bello -111; Fritsch tb Sjoholm -120; Hedblom tb Ilonen -110; Fritsch tb Hiratsuka +105]