Trophee Hassan II

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Keith Horne to beat Maximilian Kieffer -111 @ Bet365
A top-30 finish in each of his last five starts is an impressive achievement for the German rookie, but Horne has also been playing well - he has finishes of 6th, 32nd and 35th on the European Tour over the same period before returning to South Africa where he finished 7th in the Investec Cup last week. But the South African's advantage should be earned primarily from course form: whereas Kieffer is making his debut on this course, Horne shot every round 70 or better last en route to finishing 6th.

Mark Tullo to beat Maximilian Kieffer -110 @ Stan James
Tullo also has an edge in terms of course form - he played here two years and finished in the top-15. He didn't play last year as he was alongside Kieffer on the Challenge Tour, but with a 15-6-2 h2h record against the German over the last 12 months, it is clear who is the dominant player regardless of course form.

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Quiros 40-1 ew

 

[sports student]

1st round at 5 dimes

Horsey +171 over Gallacher/Quiros (futures)
Horne +170 over Rumford/Slattery (futures)

Horsey +140 over Ramsay (tourn)
Horsey +135 over Ramsay (1st)

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Edoardo Molinari(25/1) e.w.
Stephen Gallacher(33/1) e.w.
Steve Webster(50/1) e.w.
Mikko Ilonen(66/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(66/1) e.w.
Oliver Fisher(200/1) e.w.
Peter Lawrie(40/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Marcel Siem to beat David Horsey +105 @ Bet365
A matchup between 1st and 2nd in this event. Horsey may have won this event two years ago, but in the last seven occasions that he has started the weekend within five shots of the lead, he has failed to either finish the event inside the top-10 or as close to the lead as at the 36-hole stage. Siem led the Open de France last year and went on to win the event, so there is confidence that he can perform well from this position. He is also a far better player than Horsey as shown by his 17-4-1 h2h record against the Englishman since the start of last season.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Mikko Korhonen to beat Joel Sjoholm +100 @ 5Dimes
Two players outside the top-50 so out of contention, but Korhonen has the stronger motivation for progress in the final round being on limited tournaments due to his lower Exemption Category and this will be his third cut made in four attempts this year; Sjoholm had missed five of his six cuts prior to this week. And with Korhonen the dominant player in this matchup - he has finished ahead of Sjoholm in seven of their last eight common events - I'll back the Finn at plus-odds.