Trophee Lancome

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

The European Tour resumes in Paris with an event that is simply an awkward marriage between haute couture and golf. Nick Faldo has dismissed it as a sham before now and with no Ryder Cup points on offer, he is one player who stays clear. Another is Tiger Woods, but for very different reasons after last week's atrocities. It means that this is the first time in many a year that no-one of the top echelon of the PGA Tour has been present at St-Nom-la-Breteche, but there is still a good field from the European Tour. This used to be an 8-man invitational-only event, but the field has been progressively increased in size and has become a integral part of the European Tour calendar.

The course itself is not long - a par-71 at 6903 yards - with the emphases firmly on shot-making. Water is a factor on the front nine and trees and narrow fairways a factor on the back nine. The greens are just about the best in Europe with Mark O'Meara comparing them to those at Pebble Beach. This is a course which produces good winners. Of the 31 previous stagings of this event, 23 of them have been won by Major champions.

The three outright selections for this event are Sergio Garcia, Angel Cabrera and Jean van de Velde. I was going to omit anyone who would have been playing in the Ryder Cup next week as I am sure there will be a let-down factor after the months of pressure leading up to that event and the reasons for its postponement, but Garcia would be one player who is able to live for the day and not be affected by everything else. As well as having a game that is well-suited to this course and its fast greens, Garcia looks a justifiable favorite for this event.

With finishes of 10th and 16th in this event in the last two years, Cabrera has showed that the trees at St-Nom-la-Breteche are no great hindrance. Indeed, he is more than just a big hitter and ranks #12 in putting average on the European Tour. With the luxury of a very light schedule since the US Open when many other are exhausted from Ryder Cup qualification, Cabrera should finish in a high position this week.

Jean van de Velde is much more of a long-shot. He has a poor record in this event - a best of 31st - and has only played a handful of events in Europe this year. However, his form has improved markedly in the past month. After having missed the cut in 10 of 15 events this year, he has finished in very respectable positions in his last four events on the PGA Tour. If he can bring that form to France, he make his mark this week against his exhausted European compatriots .

Outright plays:

Sergio Garcia to win 9/1 @ Victor Chandler
Angel Cabrera to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Jean van de Velde to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet247

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Paul Lawrie to beat Jamie Donaldson -111 @ Simon Bold
Donaldson is in a rich vein of form winning twice on the Challenge Tour and securing some good finishes on the main Tour in the past two months, but another top-20 finish will be difficult against this quality of field. That is something that Lawrie has achieved in three of his last four visits and he should go close again

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Peter Hanson -118 @ Centrebet
Hanson is another Challenge Tour player who has made a big impression on the main Tour is last few months, however his game appears to getting tired. This will be his sixth straight event and after three straight top-10 finishes on the main Tour, he has yet to make the weekend in the last two and was a distant 50th in the Challenge Tour event last week

Barry Lane to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Very much a play against Rumford who has missed three of his last four cuts. He is not playing as well as last year and a repeat top-10 finish is not at all likely. Lane has missed just one cut in his last seven events and has a solid record on this course

Jean van de Velde to beat Barry Lane -111 @ Sporting Odds [3 units]
As outlined in the outright write-up, van de Velde's game has improved considerably in the past month and he has secured higher finishes than Lane on a much tougher Tour. No great record in this event, but it is a week to be home and on French soil this should be a much better performance. Allez Jean!

Jean van de Velde to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ Sports.com [3 units]
Leaney has missed four of his last six cuts and has finished no better than 31st on this course. May be a strong contender if he gets a fast start, but without that he seems to lose interest far too easily

Jean van de Velde to beat Mark McNulty -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
McNulty has not been competitive this year. He may have won three times on the Sunshine Tour around the New Year, but he has a best finish of 22nd on the European Tour and appears to be more focused on gearing himself for the Senior Tours in two years time

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Excellent position at the cut, but only one matchup is decided before the weekend: Lawrie beat Donaldson by a shot. In the five remaining plays, four are leading, one is tied and two opponents made the weekend on the cut mark

Jacobson leads Hanson by one, Lane leads Rumford by one, while van de Velde leads Lane by two and Leaney by three and is tied with McNulty. In the outrights, Garcia lies 2nd after 36 holes and while Cabrera and van de Velde both made the cut, they lie seven shots behind the leader.

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 3-3-0 and -0.84 units

Disappointing weekend on the matchups which had stood 5-0-1 after 36 holes. Jacobson shot a final round 77 to lose by one to Hanson, while Lane was a more distant four shots behind Rumford at the close. Van de Velde had a poor weekend but still beat two of his opponents, Leaney and Lane, by two shots apiece. He lost to McNulty by four.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +7.00 units

What a great finish by Garcia

Trailing playing partner, Goosen, by five shots with four holes to play, he birdied the 15th, 16th and 17th and put a 7-iron to 15 feet on the last hole to pile the pressure on the South African. Goosen responded by three-putting the 17th and pulling his tee-shot on the last into the greenside bunker to drop a shot and enable Garcia to win by one. Great pressure play from Garcia! Cabrera finished 30th and van de Velde 54th, but that didn't matter, this was a very memorable performance from the young Spaniard.

European Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 112-113; +7.34 units
Outright plays: 11-54; +25.39 units